Asset management in the German insurance industry: the quality of interest rate forecasts

Chopra and Ziemba (J.?Portf. Manag. 19: 6?C11, 1993) show that for asset only allocations the return forecasts are more important than assumptions about the variance-covariance matrix of the returns. Following Basse et al. (ZVersWiss 96: 617?C648, 2007) the same holds true for the asset liability management (ALM) of insurance companies. Given the high quotas of bonds in the real as well as optimized insurance portfolios, interest rate forecasts are of exceptional importance. Therefore this paper examines some of these estimates for the European market using techniques of time series analysis. A?set of criteria for the evaluation of the forecasts is presented. While some results seem to be quite favorable for forecasters, others indicate that none of the analyzed forecasts seems to provide relevant information about the future development. There is lot of evidence showing that interest rates are very difficult to predict. Some hints clearly point towards herd behavior among forecasters.     

Formal business process engineering based on graph grammars

Designing and managing a company's specific landscape and its business processes has been identified as a great challenge for several years. Business processes are highly dynamic and distributed and can only rarely be planned, modeled and analyzed completely. For a computer-aided business process system, which supports the designing and managing process, first of all a powerful uniform formalism is necessary, where all necessary knowledge concerning company's and its processes can be represented. In this paper we will concentrate on the introduction of such a formal methodology to describe business processes, company organization structures and information technology structures in one uniform formalism. The ideas we use are mainly based on methods from graph grammars, process management, Artificial Intelligence and business process (re)engineering.     

The systematic risk of corporate bonds: default risk,term risk,and index choice

In this paper, we empirically examine the systematic risk of corporate bonds in the Euro area. Based on a unique sample of 784 bonds from 1999 to 2010, we show that the systematic risk of constructed bond portfolios and individual bonds—measured against three different market indices—depends on credit quality, term risk, and index choice. A significant increase in systematic risk for lower-rated bonds is observed following the start of the financial crisis. In multi-factor models, bond portfolios load significantly on default and term risk, which are included as additional factors. Conducting Fama and MacBeth cross-sectional tests, we find that default and term risk are priced with economically relevant premiums that range from 0.35 to 0.62 % per month. Our results are robust to the inclusion of characteristics such as rating and time to maturity.     

Dictator games: a meta study

Over the last 25 years, more than a hundred dictator game experiments have been published. This meta study summarises the evidence. Exploiting the fact that most experiments had to fix parameters they did not intend to test, in multiple regression the meta study is able to assess the effect of single manipulations, controlling for a host of alternative explanatory factors. The resulting rich dataset also provides a testbed for comparing alternative specifications of the statistical model for analysing dictator game data. It shows how Tobit models (assuming that dictators would even want to take money) and hurdle models (assuming that the decision to give a positive amount is separate from the choice of amount, conditional on giving) provide additional insights.     

Health Information on the Internet

Electronic Health (e-Health) increasingly strives to provide health information and services to healthcare stakeholders via the Internet, and to actively involve patients in their care. One major chance for these participatory healthcare and patient-centered approaches that integrate patients in healthcare are the phenomena and ideas associated with providing information and healthcare on the Internet. This paper examines the existing body of knowledge on online health information and explores the current state of research through a review of literature as well as past and current research projects. The fundamental categories of the analysis represent the stakeholders in the healthcare sector, the connecting information flows, the information-transferring technological applications, as well as the categories of the TEMPEST model. Based on these findings, causes and future research fields are discussed. The technological category has the largest share of all categories. Based on these findings, causes and future research fields are discussed.     

Importance of spatial proximity between venture capital investors and investees in Germany

Based on 1182 dyads of venture capitalists and German portfolio companies involved in a financing round between 2002 and 2007, the study here examines the importance of spatial proximity between investors and investees in a dense economy. Analysis of this data shows that the probability of a financing relationship decreases by 8% if the journey time increases by one standard deviation. For deals involving very small or very large investment sums, and for less experienced venture capitalists and lead investors, spatial proximity is particularly important. The results suggest that even in economies with a dense infrastructure such as Germany spatial proximity between investor and investee impacts the likelihood of an investment.