The timing of final charitable bequest decisions

• Understanding the timing of final charitable bequest decisions permits nonprofits to co‐ordinate their marketing efforts to correspond with donor decision‐making. Using probate data from Australia and longitudinal survey data from the USA, this paper seeks to identify the timing of decisions that resulted in realized charitable bequests. We find evidence that charitable transfers result mostly from decisions that occur during the last 5 years of life and at the oldest ages. Charitable plans made earlier in life are often discarded.

Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

2013 Nobel Prize Revisited: Do Shiller's Models Really Have Predictive Power?

The authors take a critical view of the investment approach advocated by recent Nobel laureate Robert Shiller. A critic of efficient markets theory, Shiller has proposed that investors, when attempting to determine whether the S&P Index is under‐ or overvalued, should use a P/E ratio whose denominator is the 120‐month moving average of the company's EPS. But the authors find that such an approach does not provide consistently superior insights to those provided by conventional PEs—and that, for example, the use of both conventional and Shiller PE multiples would have indicated a highly overvalued S&P not only in early 2000—before the bursting of the dotcom bubble—but also in 1996, when Fed Governor Greenspan spoke prematurely of “irrational exuberance.” The authors also show that both the Shiller PE and the conventional PE ratios fail a critical statistical test: they are not mean‐reverting—and as a consequence, both ratios can be expected to indicate either undervaluation or overvaluation for very long periods of time. Complicating matters, current earnings are useful to investors in predicting future stock prices only insofar as they provide a reliable guide to future earnings and cash flows. And as one would expect in competitive capital markets, even perfect foreknowledge of future earnings is not likely to be much help since, according to the authors' analysis, five‐year earnings explain on average less than 20% of the variation in prices over consecutive five‐year periods.     

Regression using mixed annual and quarterly data

By consideration of either Generalised Least-Squares of Theil-Goldberger estimates of equations for which data on the dependent variable is available for a subset of the sample period on only an annual basis, it is shown that best estimates of the equation coefficients may be obtained by Ordinary Least-Squares estimation over the complete set of quarterly observations with quarterly averages substituted for the missing quarterly data, and symmetrically for the corresponding observations on the regressor variables. The approach is extended to the Two-Stage Least-Squares case, and to the (structurally or stochastically) autoregressive case.     

Harmonization relating to auditor independence: the Eighth Directive,the UK and Germany

The European Union Eighth Directive on the approval of auditors covers auditor independence only to a very limited extent. The provisions in the five articles on this subject are far less detailed than they were in the drafts of the directive, so that almost all specific regulation is left to the Member States. An examination of the development of the articles dealing with independence and integrity shows how the need to compromise, in order to reach an agreement, frustrated the intentions of the harmonizers. This paper traces the development of the independence rules in the Eighth Directive from the avant projet through the drafts to the final directive. It assesses the extent to which pre-Eighth Directive regulation in the UK and Germany may have affected the directive and then examines the implementation of the directive in the two countries. It concludes that national culture and accounting traditions prevented harmonization of independence rules through the Eighth Directive.     

Property Taxation and Human Migration

A bstract . Various factors explain human migration as it relates to the growth of cities. Some are closely related to the location of modem industry: people follow jobs or at least are attracted by better economic opportunities. Cities also attract population by a quality of life otherwise unavailable. Some move to particular cities for personal reasons, etc. But for the United States, at least, and for White migrants, two factors are also important in affecting migration decisions: White migrants are attracted by higher educational spending and lower property tax burdens relative to areas with lower spending and higher burdens. White migrants in 1960-70 apparently preferred areas with mild or warm climates but were less sensitive to income differences.     

Competition in taxes and performance requirements for foreign direct investment

Tax incentives offered to attract firms engaged in foreign direct investment are often tied to performance requirements such as domestic content restrictions or adherence to environmental standards. The tax competition literature has repeatedly shown that competition between municipalities for mobile firms tends to drive taxes to low levels. One would expect a comparable result for burdensome performance requirements. Despite this, the evidence suggests that while taxes have indeed been driven down, performance requirements are as popular as ever. We explain this seeming conundrum by showing that in the presence of spillovers, binding performance requirements can act as a coordination device for firms. In equilibrium, municipalities choose performance requirements, which maximize joint surplus from investment. Competition between municipalities then transfers this surplus to firms via tax subsidies.     

Consumption smoothing and vulnerability in Russia

Applying bootstrapped quantile regression to the Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey (RLMS) data, we examine the channels through which individuals experience and seek to cope with changes in consumption. We find that married individuals living in small households, with educated heads in urban areas are better equipped to smooth consumption. Investigating the impact of idiosyncratic shocks, we find that the labour market is an important transmission mechanism allowing households to smooth their consumption but also exposing them to risk, mainly through job loss. Outside of pension payments, the formal social safety net does not facilitate consumption smoothing, thus heightening the importance of informal coping institutions. It transpires that both support from relatives/friends and home production act as important insurance mechanisms for the most vulnerable. In contrast with previous findings, it would seem that regardless of its historical, political and social roots, the garden plots and dachas, often romanticized in Russian literature, do provide a means by which ‘urban’ Russians are able to cope with economic fluctuations. We finish by stressing the important policy lessons for Russia's developing market economy.     

Productivity growth in natural resource industries and the environment: an application to the Korean tuna purse-seine fleet in the Pacific Ocean

Measures of multifactor productivity growth in natural resource industries are misleading without accounting for the effects on the environment. This paper introduces environmental effects into an output-oriented Malmquist index of multifactor productivity growth in order to evaluate growth in productivity and technical efficiency for Korean purse seine vessels fishing for tuna in the Western and Central Pacific Ocean.