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81.
James Christopher Westland 《International Journal of Intelligent Systems in Accounting, Finance & Management》2020,27(2):95-107
This research developed and tested machine learning models to predict significant credit card fraud in corporate systems using Sarbanes‐Oxley (SOX) reports, news reports of breaches and Fama‐French risk factors (FF). Exploratory analysis found that SOX information predicted several types of security breaches, with the strongest performance in predicting credit card fraud. A systematic tuning of hyperparamters for a suite of machine learning models, starting with a random forest, an extremely‐randomized forest, a random grid of gradient boosting machines (GBMs), a random grid of deep neural nets, a fixed grid of general linear models where assembled into two trained stacked ensemble models optimized for F1 performance; an ensemble that contained all the models, and an ensemble containing just the best performing model from each algorithm class. Tuned GBMs performed best under all conditions. Without FF, models yielded an AUC of 99.3% and closeness of the training and validation matrices confirm that the model is robust. The most important predictors were firm specific, as would be expected, since control weaknesses vary at the firm level. Audit firm fees were the most important non‐firm‐specific predictors. Adding FF to the model rendered perfect prediction (100%) in the trained confusion matrix and AUC of 99.8%. The most important predictors of credit card fraud were the FF coefficient for the High book‐to‐market ratio Minus Low factor. The second most influential variable was the year of reporting, and third most important was the Fama‐French 3‐factor model R2 – together these described most of the variance in credit card fraud occurrence. In all cases the four major SOX specific opinions rendered by auditors and the signed SOX report had little predictive influence. 相似文献
82.
When agents are liquidity constrained, two options exist – sell assets or borrow. We compare the allocations arising in two economies: in one, agents can sell government (outside) bonds and in the other they can borrow by issuing (inside) bonds. All transactions are voluntary, implying no taxation or forced redemption of private debt. We show that any allocation in the economy with inside bonds can be replicated in the economy with outside bonds but that the converse is not true. However, the optimal policy in each economy makes the allocations equivalent. 相似文献
83.
84.
The activities of misbehaving customers represent a significant problem for organizations across diverse sectors and industries. Customer misbehavior signifies behavior within the exchange setting that deliberately violates the generally accepted norms of conduct in such situations. The core aim of this study is to advance understanding of the antecedents to past customer misbehavior and examine the relationship between past misbehavior and future misbehavior intentions. Although prior studies offer insights into individual events or types of customer misbehavior, to date, empirical evidence of the antecedents to past misbehaviors and future behavioral intentions is lacking. Synthesizing literature from varied theoretical backgrounds, this study puts forth five personality-based variables (consumer alienation, Machiavellianism, sensation seeking, aggressiveness, and self-esteem) and four demographic variables (gender, income, age, and education) as antecedents to past customer misbehavior. In turn, this study reveals an association between past customer misbehavior and future misbehavior intent. Structural equation modeling procedures using a sample of 380 respondents reveals support for eight of the nine specified hypotheses. The article concludes with a discussion of the study's implications for theory and practice. 相似文献
85.
This paper focuses on the innovative actions of entrepreneurs, namely their tendency to reveal the intellectual capital that
results from their research efforts either in the form of public knowledge (publications) or private knowledge (patents).
Using data collected by the National Research Council within the US National Academies from their survey of firm’s that received
National Institutes of Health phase II Small Business Innovation Research awards between 1992 and 2001, we find that entrepreneurs
with academic backgrounds are more likely to publish their intellectual capital compared with entrepreneurs with business
backgrounds, who are more likely to patent their intellectual capital. We also find that, when universities are research partners,
their presence complements the tendencies of academic entrepreneurs but does not offset those of business entrepreneurs. 相似文献
86.
Christopher Kilby 《World development》2011,39(11):1981-1994
Over the last few years, considerable attention has focused on aid fragmentation, the proliferation of donors and projects in developing countries. Aid fragmentation has continued to increase despite international efforts to foster donor coordination. One possible implication of fragmentation is smaller aid projects, potentially with the result of more administrative work for overtaxed recipient governments per dollar of aid received.This paper makes use of AidData data on bilateral aid commitments, sector, and funding agencies to explore the determinants of project size and to better understand the forces driving aid fragmentation. To the extent that project size is driven by the sectoral composition or purpose of aid, the associated administrative costs may be justified. Variations due to other factors, e.g. a donor’s administrative structure or bureaucratic interests, provide a stronger case for reforms. 相似文献
87.
We use a simple theoretical model of seasonal market participation in the presence of liquidity constraints and transaction costs to explain the ‘sell low, buy high’ puzzle in which some households do not take advantage of inter‐temporal price arbitrage through storage and sell output postharvest at prices lower than observed prices for purchases in the subsequent lean season. We test our model with data from western Kenya using maximum likelihood estimation of a multivariate sample selection model of market participation. Access to off‐farm income and credit indeed seem to influence crop sales and purchase behaviours in a manner consistent with the hypothesised patterns. 相似文献
88.
Abstract:Since the 1978 reforms, China has experienced rapid economic and social development. GDP growth has been in the double digits on average yearly, creating the fastest sustained economic growth recorded by a major economy in history. Not only did this transform the economy and society at large, China reached important milestones in terms of reducing poverty and creating prosperity in a short period of time. This article uses the conceptual framework of new institutional economics to examine China’s economic growth and how growth has been achieved largely by ‘informal institutions’ that are grounded in culture, customs, and private interactions that emerge spontaneously. The trajectory by which these informal institutions left their imprint on China’s complex economic landscape and how they can constrain future economic growth are also of central importance. After examining decentralization and risk management practices, property rights, and the legal system, we emphasize the importance of creating formal institutions necessary for long-term growth, most importantly innovation. Preliminary evidence shows total factor productivity is tapering off which may reflect the constraints of China’s institutional environment. This ought to be reversed if China is to enjoy long-term sustained growth. 相似文献
89.
Christopher D. Jones Steven J. Hollenhorst Frank Perna 《Leisure Sciences: An Interdisciplinary Journal》2013,35(1):17-31
The objective of this study was to conduct empirical comparisons between two models of optimal experience within an on-site whitewater kayaking setting using a modification of the Experience Sampling Method. Four concerns are examined: (1) differences in explanatory power between the four channel flow model and the Adventure Experience Paradigm, (2) convergent validity among measures used to determine conditions within these models, (3) differences among measures of perceived challenge and risk between test times of Class I-V river difficulty, and (4) differences among measures of perceived skill and competence between test times of Class I-V river difficulty. Questionnaires were administered in the Cheat River Canyon in West Virginia to 52 whitewater kayakers at eight sites of various levels of river difficulty. Data were analyzed at the experience level, rather than between subjects, using 409 experience sampling observations. Hypothesis testing, performed with statistical analyses (stepwise regression, correlations, and repeated measures ANOVA), suggested that the explanatory powers of the four channel flow model and Adventure Experience Paradigm were similar and indicated support for convergent and ecological validity of measures used to determine conditions within each of the two models. 相似文献
90.
Is late really better than never? The farmer welfare effects of pineapple adoption in Ghana
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Export agriculture offers potentially high returns to smallholder farmers in developing countries, but also carries substantial market risk. In this article we examine the intertemporal welfare impact of the timing of a farmer's entry into the export pineapple market in southern Ghana. We examine whether farmers who never cultivated pineapple are better or worse off than farmers who decided to adopt pineapple earlier or later relative to their peers and experienced a significant adverse market shock several years prior to our endline survey. We use a two‐stage least squares model to estimate the causal effect of duration of pineapple farming on farmer welfare. Consistent with economic theory, we find that earlier adoption of the new crop brings greater welfare gains than does later uptake. But we find that the gains to later uptake of pineapple—just before the market shock—are small in magnitude, just 0.1 standard deviations of a comprehensive asset index, indicating that the gains to adoption may be precarious and depend on the context, in particular on the severity of prospective market shocks. 相似文献