Bargaining one-dimensional social choices

We analyze bargaining over the one-dimension characteristic of a public good among n impatient players when decisions require q favorable votes, q?2. Stationary subgame perfect equilibrium strategies are characterized for all games with deterministic protocol. We provide a monotonicity condition (satisfied by all single-peak, strictly quasi-concave and concave utilities) that assures uniqueness for every q whenever player's utilities are symmetric around the peak. Without symmetry, the monotonicity condition assures uniqueness for qualified majorities, q>n/2, provided that agents are sufficiently patient and utilities satisfy an additional regularity condition. Asymptotic uniqueness is assured for qualified majorities by imposing only the monotonicity condition.     

Reduced-bias tail index estimation and the jackknife methodology

In the context of regularly varying tails, we first analyze a generalization of the classical Hill estimator of a positive tail index, with members that are not asymptotically more efficient than the original one. This has led us to propose alternative classical tail index estimators, that may perform asymptotically better than the Hill estimator. As the improvement is not really significant, we also propose generalized jackknife estimators based on any two members of these two classes. These generalized jackknife estimators are compared with the Hill estimator and other reduced-bias estimators available in the literature, asymptotically, and for finite samples, through the use of Monte Carlo simulation. The finite-sample behaviour of the new reduced-bias estimators is also illustrated through a practical example in the field of finance.     

Mapping the benefits and costs associated with process innovation: The case of RFID adoption

The successful implementation of any innovation requires an understanding of its benefits and costs. This study examines the changes in the magnitude of costs and benefits associated with technology process innovation adoption as the innovation diffuses across different industries. Using RFID as an exemplar technology, the study shows that the magnitude of benefits and costs associated with technological process innovation adoption within different industries varies as technology diffuses beyond early adopters to the early majority. During the early stages of technology evolution, the development cost, the cost of capital, ethical costs and simple direct implementation costs (in the form of the cost of tags) predominate. As a dominant design emerges the profile of costs changes with the emphasis on initiation costs, more holistic direct implementation costs and indirect implementation costs. A similar change in the emphasis of benefits is observed, with a shift from direct to indirect benefits being noticeable as the technology moves from early adopters to early majority adopters. Our findings help to explain the difficulties in consistently measuring innovation outcomes observed in the innovation implementation literature, and emphasize the need to take into consideration the stage of technology development as a significant factor that influences the realised outcomes from innovation implementation.     

The Role of Commercial Non-profit Organizations in the Provision of Public Services

In this paper we discuss the role of commercial non-profit firmsin the provision of public services, referring to three casestudies to illustrate the main issues. We consider problemsof corporate governance, including the role of the board ofmembers and the scope for performance-related pay. We discussthe performance of such non-profit firms in terms of qualityand costs, the particular finance problems of these firms andthe implications for risk taking. We also suggest various aspectsof non-profit behaviour in public service provision that presentinteresting avenues for future research.     

Modelling Currency Crises in Emerging Markets: A Dynamic Probit Model with Unobserved Heterogeneity and Autocorrelated Errors*

The paper investigates the causes of currency crises in emerging markets. We estimate the probability of a currency crisis by applying maximum smoothly simulated likelihood to a dynamic LDV model. This approach allows us to take explicit account of the existence of intertemporal links between crises. The results show that currency crises are influenced by real, monetary, debt and global variables. Past banking crises are significant determinants of the probability of currency crises. Moreover, countries that sharply devalued in the past are less prone to experience another currency crisis. We find evidence of unobserved heterogeneity, which may reflect differences in the countries’ institutional/historical background. Finally, the determinants of currency crises differ by type of exchange rate regime.     

The monetary origins of asymmetric information in international equity markets

Existing studies using low-frequency data have found that macroeconomic shocks contribute little to international stock market covariation. However, these papers have not accounted for the presence of asymmetric information where sophisticated investors generate private information about the fundamentals that drive returns in many countries. In this paper, we use a new microstructure data set to better identify the effects of private and public information shocks about U.S. interest rates and equity returns. High-frequency private and public information shocks help forecast domestic money and equity returns over daily and weekly intervals. In addition, these shocks are components of factors that are priced in a model of the cross-section of international returns. Linking private information to U.S. macroeconomic factors is useful for many domestic and international asset-pricing tests.     

Going up and down: rethinking the empirics of growth in the developing and newly industrialized world

Growth dynamics are remarkably heterogeneous, in particular when one focuses on developing countries. Economic miracles and failures are embedded within extended phases of either growth or decline. In this paper, we analyze the growth patterns of developing and newly industrialized countries on the basis of structural breaks and growth regimes experienced. Emphasizing the presence of broken trends, we focus on the difference between expansionary and recessionary regimes of medium length, and we show that models of takeoffs and exponential growth are inadequate to characterize the majority of observed growth dynamics. Then, we move to a systematic classification of different patterns and we isolate an additional stylized fact characterizing the process of growth and development. In particular, our results show that expansionary regimes are associated with convergence and positive correlation between growth and (short run) volatility. By contrast, in recessionary regimes, poorer countries face deeper failures and a negative correlation between growth and volatility is found, indicating that output fluctuates less around the trend during strong rather than mild recessions. Catching-up phenomena are infrequent but more likely to occur across categories of growth patterns rather than within. Finally, we discover that regimes of growth and recession show similar average length (about 16 years). Although recessions are, on average, remarkably pronounced (14% loss of GDP per capita), the magnitude of growth is much larger during expansions. In sum, our results underline that stable positive growth is hardly achieved in developing countries, which rather alternate long phases of expansions with equally long phases of recession. Moreover, cross-sectional empirical regularities are found to differ between regimes of positive and negative growth.     

Gravity Models of Interregional Migration in Indonesia

This article explores the determinants of interregional migration in Indonesia. Employing basic and modified (extended) gravity models, and using data from the 2000 and 2010 Population Censuses and the 2005 Intercensal Population Survey, we test Long’s (1985) hypothesis that in the early stages of population redistribution, economic development is positively related to a concentration of the population. Using per-capita GDP as a proxy for income and as an indicator of economic development, we find that migration in Indonesia is indeed directed towards more developed regions. This finding supports the notion that regional disparities in development are an important factor in interregional migration in Indonesia. In line with classical gravity models, our findings show that distance is negatively related to the size of migration flows. However, unlike previous studies of interprovincial migration in Indonesia, we find that the effect of distance has weakened over time.     

COMMERCIAL ACTIVITY AS INSURANCE: THE INVESTMENT BEHAVIOUR OF NON‐PROFIT ORGANIZATIONS

ABSTRACT ** : We provide a new explanation for commercial activities by non‐profit organizations whose primary concern is to supply mission output. Starting from the observation that donations to individual non‐profits are often highly volatile, we show how investment in commercial activity can constitute a form of insurance for mission activity. Although investment in commercial activity has an opportunity cost in terms of capacity to produce mission output, if donations turn out to be low the commercial revenue will enable cross‐subsidization of mission output. The equilibrium commercial investment is (weakly) positively related to the degree of risk aversion.