Stock prices and merger movements: Interactive relations

Zusammenfassung Die wechselseitigen Beziehungen zwischen Aktienkursen und Firmenzusammenschlüssen. - Der Aufsatz untersucht die Beziehungen zwischen Firmenzusammenschlüssen und makro?konomischen Variablen. Es werden Kausalit?tstests mit US-Daten der Periode 1919–1979 durchgeführt, die zeigen, da? Zusammenschlüsse und Aktienkurse in derselben Periode aufeinander einwirken und da? keine Lead- oder Lag-Beziehungen bestehen. Die Zeitreihenanalyse deutet darauf hin, da? die Reihe der Zusammenschlüsse einem autoregressiven Proze? 2. Ordnung folgt, die „random walk”-Hypothese also abzulehnen ist.

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Résumé Cours des actions et mouvements de fusion: Relations interactives. - Dans cet article l’auteur examine la relation entre des mouvements de fusion et des variables macro-économiques. Après avoir testé la causalité avec des données des E.U. pour la période 1919–1979, l’évidence démontre que l’activité de fusion et les cours des actions interagissent dans la même période et ne revèlent pas une relation d’avance ou à retard. L’analyse des séries chronologiques indique que la série de fusion suit un processus AR (2), refusant l’hypothèse de ?random walk?.

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Resumen Precios de valores bursátiles y la pauta de fusiones: relaciones interactivas. - En este trabajo se examina la relación entre la pauta de fusiones y variables macroeconómicas. Los resultados de tests de causalidad utilizando datos de los EE UU para el período 1919–1979 muestran que las fusiones y los precios de las acciones interactúan en forma comtemporánea y no revelan rezago o adelanto alguno. El análisis de series de tiempo indica que las series de fusiones responden a un proceso AR(2), lo cual significa un rechazo de la hipótesis del ?random walk?.

     

Protection by international transport charges: Analysis by stage of fabrication

This study employs the effective protection model to evaluate the incidence of ad valorem transport charges (freight factors) on U.S. imports at various stages in the production process, with special emphasis on their impact upon the development of manufacturing activities in LDC's. Freight factors, unlike tariffs, are not found to display a widespread tendency to escalate by fabrication stage, and do not appear to bear more heavily on products of major export interest to LDC's than on U.S. imports from industrial nations. Results suggest forces other than transport charges are primarily responsible for inhibiting the growth of manufacturing export industries in LDC's.     

Experimental socio-economic models of Europe

The work described here was carried out as part of a Study Contract sponsored by the European Commission, to examine the feasibility of constructing mathematical socio-economic models of regional issues in the European zone. The final model would include numerous economic and demographic variables, including representations of trade between the EEC and other regions of the world. This article discusses the main problems in constructing a final model and indicates its various possible forms.     

Employment in health services: long-term trends and projections.

Demand for health services is expected to grow in response to the increasing number of elderly people; but growth prospects to 1995 for the industry's wage and salary workers are uncertain because of changes in both the financing and delivery of health care.