Monetary and financial stability: Here to stay?

We argue that changes in the monetary and financial regimes over the last twenty years or so have been subtly altering the dynamics of the economy and hence the challenges that monetary and prudential authorities face. In particular, the current environment may be more vulnerable to the occasional build up of financial imbalances, i.e. over-extensions in (private sector) balance sheets, which herald economic weakness and unwelcome disinflation down the road, as they unwind. As a result, achieving simultaneous monetary and financial stability in a lasting way may call for refinements to current monetary and prudential policy frameworks. These refinements would entail a firmer long-term focus, greater symmetry in policy responses between upswings and downswings, with greater attention to actions during upswings, and closer coordination between monetary and prudential authorities.     

Accounting and prudential regulation: from uncomfortable bedfellows to perfect partners?

Recent initiatives to improve the public information about individual firms have brought to the fore significant differences in perspective between accountants and prudential regulators. We examine the reasons for these differences and propose ways in which they could be reconciled within a broader framework aimed at identifying the type of information conducive to the proper functioning and stability of the financial system. We argue that such information should concern three characteristics: estimates of current financial condition; estimates of risk profile; and measures of the uncertainty surrounding those estimates. So far, efforts have mainly focused on the first characteristic, with the second having drawn attention only recently and the third having been largely neglected. We propose a strategy to reconcile different perspectives based on two principles: first, in the long-term, the “decoupling” of the objective of accurate financial reporting by the firm from that of instilling the desired degree of prudence in its behaviour; second, a “parallel transition” process towards that objective so that at all points the prudential measures can neutralise any undesirable implications of changes in financial reporting standards on financial stability.     

Imbrication of Representations: Risk and Digital Technologies*

abstract Though emerging from different venues and backgrounds, risk management and digital applications are both based on sophisticated techniques of representation. This paper tracks the multiple overlappings and convergence between these two streams of representations. Initially digital technologies play a background role, as a tool to execute the algorithms of risk calculus. Then, they are useful in managing surveys and data analysis for those areas where risk management needs to store data on, for example, accidents. With the extension of markets for trading risk, computers and networks (or Information and Communication Technologies, ICT) become the tools of choice to allow the efficient functioning of industries like insurance. In other industries, like banking, where ‘the business’ is a vast archipelago of applications running on systems and networks, it is apparent that these integrated systems are inherently exposed to risk. Hence, these humble tools become both the infrastructure of the risk industry, and also the source of new, often incalculable risks; they move from a clear‐cut subordinate relationship (as tool) to that of imbrication. Risk representations become more calculable and formalized, but this is obtained at the price of an incalculability of the risks of the infrastructure itself. The analysis of the multiple patterns of imbrication of representations between risk and digital technologies is applied to a range of empirical domains: from software engineering and information systems (the subservient infrastructure); to operational risk in banking; and finally to the future scenario of the democratization of finance, whereby Global Risk Information Databases (GRIDs), become gigantic machines to represent, compute, and trade all sorts of individual and social risks. ^[1] Overall, the paper seeks to characterize the multiple links between risk and digital technologies in organizations and draws in part on the phenomenology of representation and Heidegger's studies of Care and Concern and his later work on the essence of modern technology.     

Increasing returns to savings and wealth inequality

In this paper I present an explanation to the fact that in the data wealth is substantially more concentrated than income. Starting from the observation that the composition of households' portfolios changes towards a larger share of high-yield assets as the level of net worth increases, I first use data on historical asset returns and portfolio composition by wealth level to construct an empirical return function. I then augment an Overlapping Generation version of the standard neoclassical growth model with idiosyncratic labor income risk and missing insurance markets to allow for returns on savings to be increasing in the level of accumulated assets. The quantitative properties of the model are examined and show that an empirically plausible difference between the return faced by poor and wealthy agents is able to generate a substantial increase in wealth inequality compared to the basic model, enough to match the Gini index and all but the top 1 percentile of the US distribution of wealth.     

Gender policy and female employment: a CGE model for Italy

The gender integration in all areas of policy choices and at all stages of the decision-making process is strongly recommended by the European Union and represents an achievement that the Member States should accomplish when implementing policy measures. In a country like Italy, where the level of female labour participation is among the lowest in Europe, policy maker decisions should encourage and stimulate the demand for female labour without neglecting the global employment rate and income growth. The multisectoral analysis offers the possibility to bridge gender disaggregation within income formation and distribution from the production phase to the demand formation. In this perspective, this paper develops a gender-aware CGE model based on the gender-aware SAM for the Italian economy to evaluate the impact of different fiscal policies aimed to reduce female labour cost and trigger woman hiring in those sectors with high gender disparity.     

Assessing the returns to collaborative research: Firm-level evidence from Italy

We use firm-level data from Italian manufacturing firms to assess the relationship between various types of R&D and total factor productivity growth, including collaborative research with other firms and universities. A novel twist to our empirical analysis is that we estimate a sample selection model, which allows us to treat the decision to conduct R&D as endogenous. We find strong evidence of positive returns to collaborative research with other companies, whereas collaborative research with universities does not appear to enhance productivity. This result implies that firms may conduct R&D with universities when appropriability conditions are weak and the outcomes of such research projects do not yield direct strategic benefits.     

Adaptive ARFIMA models with applications to inflation

Many previous analyses of inflation have used either long memory or nonlinear time series models. This paper suggests a simple adaptive modification of the basic ARFIMA model, which uses a flexible Fourier form to allow for a time varying intercept. Simulation evidence suggests that the model provides a good representation of various forms of structural breaks and also that the new model can be efficiently estimated by a QMLE approach. We investigate monthly CPI inflation series for the G7 countries and find evidence of stable long memory parameters across regimes and also of significant nonlinear effects. The estimated adaptive ARFIMA models generally have less persistent long memory parameters than previous studies, with the estimated time dependent intercept being an important component. The model is also supplemented with an adaptive FIGARCH component, yielding a double nonlinear long memory model.     

Transatlantic systemic risk

In this paper we study systemic risk for the US and Europe. We show that banks’ exposures to common risk factors are crucial for systemic risk. We come to this conclusion by first showing that relations between US and European banks are smaller than within each region. We then show that European banks react more strongly to the onset of the financial crisis than US banks. Regarding the consequences of systemic risk, we show that dependence between the banking sector and a wide range of real sectors is limited. Our results imply that regulators and supervisors should address international bank dependencies arising from common risk factors, while recessions in real sectors due to bank defaults should be a secondary concern.     

An Evaluation of the Decision Usefulness of Cash Flow Statements by Australian Reporting Entities

In June 1991, the Australian Accounting Standards Board issued AASB 1026, Statement of Cash Flows. Since replacing the funds flow statement, the new accounting standard has become a compulsory part of Australian corporate financial reporting. In contrast to cash flow developments in the US and UK. the emergence of AASB 1026 has been preceded by almost no significant research attention by Australian academics. This study surveyed the attitudes to cash flow statements of 210 public companies listed on the Australian stock exchange. Findings revealed that there was particularly strong support for the essential provisions of AASB 1026 and the underlying principles of cash flow reporting. The results indicated that the cash flow statement is important for a wide variety of internal and external decision contexts, and appealed to a wide range of users. Furthermore, compared with previous research (e.g. McEnroe, 1989), the present survey demonstrated that operating profit was not considered by a large number of Australian companies to be a superior measure of business performance to operating cash flow.     

Global Imbalances and the Financial Crisis: Reassessing the Role of International Finance

Global current account imbalances have recently been singled out by many as a key factor contributing to the global financial crisis. Current account surpluses in several emerging market economies are said to have put significant downward pressure on world interest rates, thereby fueling a credit boom and risk taking in major advanced economies with current account deficits (the “excess saving” view). We argue that this perspective on global imbalances bears reconsideration. We highlight two conceptual problems: (i) explaining market interest rates through the saving-investment framework; and (ii) drawing inferences about a country's cross-border financing activity based on observations of net capital flows. We trace the shortcomings of this perspective to a failure to consider the distinguishing characteristics of a monetary (credit) economy. We conjecture that the main macroeconomic cause of the financial crisis was not “excess saving” but the “excess elasticity” of the international monetary and financial system.