Equilibrium in securities markets with heterogeneous investors and unspanned income risk

In a finite time horizon, incomplete market, continuous-time setting with dividends and investor incomes governed by arithmetic Brownian motions, we derive closed-form solutions for the equilibrium risk-free rate and stock price for an economy with finitely many heterogeneous CARA investors and unspanned income risk. In equilibrium, the Sharpe ratio is the same as in an otherwise identical complete market economy, whereas the risk-free rate is lower and, consequently, the stock price is higher. The reduction in the risk-free rate is highest when the more risk-averse investors face the largest unspanned income risk.     

Convergence as a heterogeneous process: what can be learnt about convergence in EMU from regional experiences?

We augment the existing literature on regional convergence by uncovering a number of stylized facts on the heterogeneity of regional convergence processes in the absence of currency devaluation as a key policy instrument, and use them to highlight reform strategies that are most likely to be conducive to a successful catching-up of the periphery countries of EMU. We show that regional convergence processes in Europe were extremely heterogeneous, highly discontinuous and strongly concentrated during the last two decades. These stylized facts question the focus of the traditional literature on average (β-)convergence and suggest substantial nonlinearities in regional convergence processes that have yet to be understood in detail. Our results further suggest that growth strategies based on increasing human capital investments and innovation capacities are the most likely to be successful in triggering convergence of lagging regions in currency unions.     

Inside the black box: How important is the credit channel relative to the interest and exchange rate channels?

This paper develops a dynamic general equilibrium model to assess the importance of the credit channel relative to the interest and exchange rate channels. It is motivated by increasing theoretical and empirical evidence that credit market conditions affect the propagation of cyclical fluctuations in the economy. The relative contribution of each channel is determined by comparing the impulse responses when the relevant channel is suppressed with the impulse responses when all three channels are operating. The analysis shows that all three channels affect business cycle dynamics. But the interest rate channel has the largest effects in the transmission of shocks to the economy. The results suggest that it is substantially more important than the credit channel.     

Social capital and cultural adjustment of international assignees in NGOs: do support networks really matter?

International assignees face cultural adjustment challenges in their host countries in work and nonwork situations. At the same time, social capital theory suggests that individuals can access and mobilize resources from their social networks. We explore the use of social networks by international assignees from a non-governmental organization in their cross-cultural adjustment to the host country. Specifically, we are interested in the individuals who directly provided support to the expatriate, a network that we term the ‘current assignment support network’. We focus on the size, type and frequency of contact of the international assignee's support network, and investigate to what extent these variables can predict overall cultural adjustment to the host country, or separate dimensions of cultural adjustment such as interaction adjustment, general adjustment and work adjustment. Our findings indicate that certain characteristics of the international assignee's current assignment support network do impact their cultural adjustment to the host country, but that the effects are moderated by whether the assignee has prior international experience.     

A Cautionary Tale About Control Variables in IV Estimation

Many instrumental variable (IV) regressions include control variables to justify (conditional) independence of the instrument and the potential outcomes. The plausibility of conditional IV independence crucially depends on the timing when the control variables are determined. This paper works through different IV models and discusses the (conditions for the) satisfaction of conditional IV independence depending on whether the control variables are measured prior to or after instrument assignment. To illustrate the identification issues, we consider the Vietnam War draft risk as instrument either for veteran status or education to evaluate the effects of these variables on labour market and health outcomes. Our empirical analysis based on the ‘Young Men in High School and Beyond’ survey suggests that commonly used conditional IV strategies to estimate the impact of draft induced military service or education may be severely biased due to the use of improper controls.     

General Bayesian time-varying parameter vector autoregressions for modeling government bond yields

US yield curve dynamics are subject to time-variation, but there is ambiguity about its precise form. This paper develops a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with time-varying parameters and stochastic volatility, which treats the nature of parameter dynamics as unknown. Coefficients can evolve according to a random walk, a Markov switching process, observed predictors, or depend on a mixture of these. To decide which form is supported by the data and to carry out model selection, we adopt Bayesian shrinkage priors. Our framework is applied to model the US yield curve. We show that the model forecasts well, and focus on selected in-sample features to analyze determinants of structural breaks in US yield curve dynamics.