Conflict variables in world simulations

World modellers have neglected social and political variables in their model building, basically because of problems of quantification. Instead they have treated these factors as exogenous, which has permitted a less rigorous approach to the relationship between their inputs and the real world. Here the author introduces two sociopolitical variables—conflict and centralisation—into Forrester's World 2 model, and Boyd's modified World 2, and compares the results of a series of computer runs with the results obtained from the original models. While the propositions linking these two variables to others in the World 2 model are largely hypothetical, the stability of the modified model suggests that these linkages are authentic—and that the study's findings concerning the effect of conflict upon the world system are valid.     

Opinions about privacy: does the type of information used for marketing purposes make a difference?

The availability of personal information is at an all-time high. Technology has revolutionised the marketing industry, enabling marketers to achieve precise selectivity through database efforts. With this selectivity comes the responsibility of determining acceptable and unacceptable uses of personal information by businesses and nonprofits for marketing purposes. This paper explores opinions on information privacy by investigating the impact of education in the formulation of opinions on the use of personal information for marketing purposes. A single credit course in direct marketing does not change opinions regarding information privacy. But a series of credit marketing courses does reduce the level of restrictions desired on the availability and use of personal information for marketing. Thus, the direct marketing industry would be better served by promoting and demonstrating the ethical use of personal information through ethical marketing practices by all its practitioners rather than by attempting to educate the general public about the nature and uses of such information and data for marketing purposes. Copyright © 1999 Henry Stewart Publications     

A global database of domestic and international tourist numbers at national and subnational level

We present a new, global database on tourist destinations. The database differs from other databases in that it includes both domestic and international tourists; and it contains, for the most important destinations, data at national level as well as at lower administrative levels. Missing observations are interpolated using statistical models. The data are freely accessible on the internet. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of apixaban vs low molecular weight heparin/vitamin k antagonist on hospital resource use in patients with venous thromboembolism

Background: The clinical and economic benefits associated with apixaban treatment have been established in clinical trials and published economic evaluations. The benefits associated with apixaban could extend to improving hospital efficiencies, potentially influencing hospital resource use, and bed days. The objective of this study is to estimate the impact of 6-month treatment with apixaban vs low molecular weight heparin/vitamin k antagonist (LMWH/VKA) on hospital resource use among patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE).

Methods: A model was developed to assess the impact of apixaban vs LMWH/VKA for treatment of VTE and prevention of recurrences on hospital resource use and costs. Resource use items included total hospitalizations, length of stay (LOS), and emergency department (ED) visits, estimated for all incident VTE patients in the UK over a 5-year time horizon. Rates of hospitalizations, ED visits, and LOS associated with recurrent VTE, major, and clinically relevant non-major bleeding were obtained from the AMPLIFY trial; costs were obtained from UK published sources.

Results: Over a 5-year time horizon, the model predicted that, compared to 6 months of LMWH/VKA, 6 months of apixaban led to 3,954 fewer hospitalizations (consisting of 2,341 fewer new admissions and 1,613 fewer re-admissions) and 32,214 fewer bed days, among 332,607 incident VTE patients. ED visits were reduced by 1,582. The reduction in hospital resource use led to a cost saving of ～£4.5 million in a market of patients treated with apixaban as compared to a market treated with LMWH/VKA. Sensitivity analysis indicated these findings were robust over a wide range of inputs.

Conclusions: 6-month treatment with apixaban for treatment of VTE and prevention of recurrences on hospital resource use led to a reduction in hospitalizations and LOS in comparison to LMWH/VKA. These findings can help the efforts in reducing the growing burden of preventable re-admissions to hospitals.     

Long-term employment relationships in the early twentieth century: Evidence from personnel data

This paper utilizes a new panel data set of workers employed by the Canadian Pacific Railway between 1904 and 1929 to analyse the incidence of long-term employment and reasons for changes in job durations after World War I. The hazard function estimates indicate that individuals have only a small probability of staying for more than ten years at the firm, although at any point in time long-term workers constitute a sizable fraction of employees. Increasing post-war spell lengths reflect the changing composition of the workforce rather than differences in macro-economic conditions or changes in employment relationships. Specific human capital and job matching were also important: Long-term employees were shielded from both firm-specific and economy-wide downturns.     

Trade liberalisation,structural adjustment and intra-industry trade: A note

Conclusions This note reports tests of the relationship between trade liberalisation and the levels of intra-industry trade, and between levels of IIT and structural adjustment in response to trade liberalisation. It has used a new approach by focussing on the impact of changes in protection on (i) changes in IIT, and (ii) differences in structural adjustment over time in high-IIT and low-IIT sectors.