Developing Experience-Based Premium Rate Discounts in Crop Insurance

This article addresses the feasibility of implementing an experience-based premium rate discount system in crop insurance. While adverse selection and moral hazard in crop insurance have been extensively studied in the past, discount systems or bonus–malus incentives have not, to our knowledge, been investigated. Our empirical analysis indicates that a crop insurance discount system could be implemented based on a measure of favorable past insurance experience. The estimated average discounts based on the rating methods developed in this study ranged from 5% to 9% (depending on the crop being considered).     

Crop Yield Distributions: A Reconciliation of Previous Research and Statistical Tests for Normality

This study revisits the large but inconclusive body of research on crop yield distributions. Using competing techniques across 3,852 crop/county combinations we can reconcile some inconsistencies in previous studies. We examine linear, polynomial, and ARIMA trend models. Normality tests are undertaken, with an implementable R-test and multivariate testing to account for spatial correlation. Empirical results show limited support for stochastic trends in yields. Results also show that normality rejection rates depend on the trend specification. Corn Belt corn and soybeans yields are negatively skewed while they tend to become more normal as one moves away from the Corn Belt.     

Managing economic risk in value-based marketing of fed cattle

This research investigates optimal price risk management strategies for fed cattle producers engaged in grid pricing. Stochastic simulation is used to determine optimal hedge ratios for fed cattle priced on a live weight basis or on a series of grids that vary in terms of premium/discount structure as well as base price. Results indicate that the optimal hedging strategy is greatly affected by the base price used in a particular grid. This has significant implications for pricing efficiency in the cattle market. Base prices that are linked more closely with downstream markets offer the potential to improve pricing efficiency; however, the risk associated with these prices is difficult to manage effectively with existing futures instruments.     

Warming temperatures will likely induce higher premium rates and government outlays for the U.S. crop insurance program

Likely climate change impacts include damages to agricultural production resulting from increased exposure to extreme heat. Considerable uncertainty remains regarding impacts on crop insurance programs. We utilize a panel of U.S. corn yield data to predict the effect of warming temperatures on the mean and variance of yields, as well as crop insurance premium rates and producer subsidies. While we focus on corn, we demonstrate that the subsidy impacts are likely to carry over to other major program crops. We find that warming decreases mean yields and increases yield risk on average, which results in higher premium rates. Under a 1°C warming scenario, we find that premium rates at the 90% coverage level will increase by 39% on average; however, there is considerable statistical uncertainty around this average as the 95% confidence interval spans from 22% to 61%. We also find evidence of extensive cross‐sectional differences as the county‐level rate impacts range from a 10% reduction to a 63% increase. Results indicate that exposure to extreme heat and changes in the coefficient of variation are large drivers of the impacts. Under the 1°C warming scenario, we find that annual subsidy payments for the crop insurance program could increase by as much as $1.5 billion, representing a 22% increase relative to current levels. This estimate increases to 3.7 billion (57%) under a 2°C warming scenario. Our results correspond to a very specific counterfactual: the marginal effect of warming temperatures under current technology, production, and crop insurance enrollments. These impacts are shown to be smaller than the forecasted impacts under a commonly used end‐of‐century general circulation model for even the most optimistic CO₂ emissions projection.     

Fanning the flames of learning

Hugh Coble has worked for Fluor Daniel since 1966. Fluor Daniel provides a broader range of engineering, construction, maintenance, and diversified services to more clients in more industries and geographic locations than any global competitor. With over 50 electronically networked offices supporting 2,000 projects in 82 countries, Fluor Daniel is a truly global company in every sense of the word. Coble has spent more than half his professional life outside the United States, moving a total of 22 times. Even when stationed in the United States, his responsibilities have often focused on the world at large. Throughout the past 30 years, he has seen a multitude of exciting changes in the global work place. This wealth of international experience is the basis for his Commencement Address at Thunderbird, The American Graduate School of International Management, in August of 1997. The following is an adaptation of this address. © 1998 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Consistency of risk premium measures

This research uses the results of a series of within‐sample experiments to elicit risk premium measures from agricultural producers. Results show that there is little consistency between measures in different contexts and using different elicitation methods, suggesting that underlying risk preferences are not consistent. These results highlight some of the difficulty with expected utility theory and risk measurement.     

The Impact of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skills on Professional Salaries in An Emerging Economy,Chile

Professional salaries in Chile are here explained on the basis not only of traditional human capital variables but also of variables indicative of other cognitive and noncognitive skills. As might be expected, college entrance scores (SAT), our measure of advanced cognitive skills, are found to impact strongly and nonlinearly on salaries. More surprisingly, ranking in one's high school graduation class raises one's salary 10 years later by the equivalent of one year of additional experience, suggesting that ranking stands for a more permanent noncognitive skill such as effort or self‐discipline. As is typically found, women earn less than men, but, to our surprise, they also have lower asking salaries than men.