Simple Procedures for Testing Autoregressive Versus Moving Average Errors in Regression Models

This paper develops several simple separate (or non-nested) procedures for testing autoregressive versus moving average errors in regression models. These asymptotically valid tests are straightforward to calculate: after estimating both models by maximum likelihood methods, the procedure involves testing the significance of variables added to a linearized version of the null model, the added variables being the predictions, or the residuals from the specified alternative model, or the difference of the predictions of the two models. Some small sample evidence on the properties of the tests is presented, as is an empirical application on the Australian unexpected inflation rate series.
JEL Classification Numbers: C12, C22, C52, E31.     

A critique of high-value supply chains as a means of modernising agriculture in China: The case of the beef industry

China has embarked on an agricultural modernisation program with far-reaching implications for rural development, food safety and trade. A major focus of China’s agricultural modernisation program has been to build high-value supply chains and large, modern agro-industrial enterprises. This paper provides a critique of these efforts in the case of the high-value beef supply chain. It finds that interventionist policies to fast-track the development of high-value supply chains have perverse outcomes and that a more incremental and facilitative approach to modernisation should be pursued based around the development of mid-value supply chains.     

Modelling the influence of decision makers on the future

The article describes attempts to use futures research in a specific framework: the development of a model to be used as a basis for action within a UK local authority. The model is thus designed to explore the ramifications of the decision-making activities of real people within a specific organisation. It represents an original attempt to include explicitly the acts of human endeavour which influence the direction of the future within a model for indicating possible futures. The author describes the current state of the model-building activity which is intended to depict the policy-making process. The model is based upon concepts drawn from the fields of cognitive psychology and sociology.     

Local elections and consumption insurance

During our sample period from 1987 to 2002, Chinese villages completed the transition from government‐appointed village leaders to elected ones. This article examines if and how much democratic elections of the village leaders affected consumption insurance by Chinese village residents. Exploring a panel dataset of 1,400 households from this period, we find that consumption insurance is around 20 percent more complete with elected village leaders. Furthermore, local elections improve consumption insurance only for the poor and middle‐income farmers, but not for the rich. The results are robust when we allow for pretrending, potential endogeneity of elections, and higher measurement errors for rich residents. We also find that the effects on consumption insurance are stronger when closer to the upcoming election year and when the village committees consist largely of non‐Communist Party members. These findings suggest that the election effects on consumption insurance partly come from increasing accountability to local constituents.     

A Fallen Idol? Japanese Management in the 1990s

The authors argue that the elevation of Japanese manufacturing management in the West rested on the idea that superior performance resulted from new productive techniques and different systems of management. The object of this article is to shift the balance of placing more weight on structural factors and less on management success or failure. Attention is drawn to the fact that Japanese industry operated in a favourable domestic environment. Output expansion at home and a favourable social settlement (wages, hours worked) operated to ensure that exports, sold in markets where quite different social settlements set higher prices, generated a great deal of cash for Japanese producers. It is argued that the erosion, if not disappearance, of these favourable conditions from the mid-1980s onward has contributed substantially to the recent difficulties of Japanese producers.     

Self‐regulated learning in the workplace: strategies and factors in the attainment of learning goals

The research reported here is an exploratory qualitative study aimed at identifying professionals' self‐regulatory strategies underpinning the planning and attainment of learning goals in the workplace and showing how a number of organizational factors affect these strategies. The rationale for the study is that existing research tells us little about how professionals regulate their learning, largely because much of the literature on the self‐regulation of learning has been conducted with pupils and students in schools and universities rather than with professionals. Data were obtained through 29 semi‐structured interviews with professional employees in a company in the energy sector – including engineers, scientists and managers of various kinds – in 12 countries. Findings suggest that self‐regulatory learning practices in, from and for work are iterative and fluid rather than delineated into discrete stages as suggested by phase models of self‐regulation. There was little deliberate, systematic self‐reflection on learning in the workplaces studied. Learning goals were driven by short‐term work tasks and individuals' longer term development needs. Professionals draw extensively upon supervisors, mentors and colleagues when planning and attaining their learning goals. Formation of learning goals was constrained by individuals' perceptions of their career development potential and of how their progression potential is viewed by the organization in which they work.