Estimating and Forecasting the Yield Curve Using A Markov Switching Dynamic Nelson and Siegel Model

We estimate versions of the Nelson–Siegel model of the yield curve of US government bonds using a Markov switching latent variable model that allows for discrete changes in the stochastic process followed by the interest rates. Our modeling approach is motivated by evidence suggesting the existence of breaks in the behavior of the US yield curve that depend, for example, on whether the economy is in a recession or a boom, or on the stance of monetary policy. Our model is parsimonious, relatively easy to estimate and flexible enough to match the changing shapes of the yield curve over time. We also derive the discrete time non‐arbitrage restrictions for the Markov switching model. We compare the forecasting performance of these models with that of the standard dynamic Nelson and Siegel model and an extension that allows the decay rate parameter to be time varying. We show that some parametrizations of our model with regime shifts outperform the single‐regime Nelson and Siegel model and other standard empirical models of the yield curve. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Demand for locally provided public services within the median voter's framework: the case of the Brazilian municipalities

In this paper we estimated the demand for local public spending for the Brazilian municipalities within a median voter's framework. The rationale for applying that framework came from the fact that in federal systems voters’ preferences are more likely to be reflected at the local level as the consumers of public services have a better knowledge of the benefits and costs of the local public expenditures. Results obtained are consistent with the theoretical background thus suggesting that this hypothesis might be useful to describe the demand for local public goods in Brazil. In particular, the use of quantile regression permitted us to investigate the impacts of the conditioning variables on local public expenses across different expenditures classes thus allowing for heterogeneity across municipalities. Our results also suggest that the impact of the city size on the quality of club goods shows crowding effects as γ is between zero and one. However, in the estimated models, marginal congestion slightly decreases with expenditure. This is a rather surprising result as one is tempted to conclude that the congestion effect should be higher on big cities. Yet, a more careful look shows the drawbacks of such an interpretation. The indivisibilities preclude the provision of certain services in small towns, concentrating their provision on larger cities. Hence, the higher expenditures of those big cities reflect not only a crowding cost but also the fact that these towns offer a wide range of services when compared to the small ones.     

How resilient and countercyclical were emerging economies during the global financial crisis?

By studying the cross-country incidence of the 2008–2009 global financial crisis, we document a structural break in the way emerging economies responded to the global shock. Contrary to popular perceptions, emerging economies suffered growth collapses (relative to the pre-crisis levels) comparable to those experienced by developed economies, even when they continued growing. Afterwards, most economies returned to their pre-crisis growth rates. Although emerging economies were not able to avoid the collapse originated in the U.S. and then transmitted across countries, they were more resilient during the global crisis than during past crises. Namely, they resumed their higher growth rates earlier and converged more quickly to their pre-crisis growth trend. Moreover, breaking with the past, emerging economies did not fall more than developed economies during the global crisis and were able to conduct countercyclical policies, thus becoming more similar to developed economies.     

Models of employment and income distribution

A compact form of the Taylor/Lysy model is presented. It consists of the commodity and factor price frontiers, the saving-investment equilibrium condition and the neoclassical relationship between relative factor prices and the capital intensity. Such compact form is underdetermined. Different ‘closure rules’ give rise to different equilibria, each with its own comparative static properties. The models resulting from a few simple ‘closure rules’ are examined, starting with the full employment, flexible price model, with accumulation of capital determined by available savings. In all cases, capital is fully utilized and financial assets are ignored.     

López de Peñalver's Reflexiones : an economic and mathematical approach

Juan López de Peñalver was an engineer and mathematician who trained in Spain, Central Europe and Paris. His Reflexiones sobre la variación del precio del trigo (1812) contained three models of: (1) wages, wheat prices and mortality; (2) transport costs and location; and (3) constant relative prices, which were brought to an international readership in 1961. His complete works were published in 1992. An advocate of political arithmetic and mathematical economics, he was influenced by Canard, Condorcet and Steuart and the economic writings of Lavoisier and Lagrange; a considerable distance separated him from both Adam Smith and J.-B. Say.     

Corporate Networks and Business Groups in Argentina in the Early 1970s

This article examines the interlocking directorates' structure of prominent Argentine business groups at the end of the import substitution period (1970–72), identifying corporate relations among and between business groups and the largest companies, during a period characterised by high institutional and macroeconomic instability. Applying social network analysis, it seeks to clarify how business groups can contribute to the cohesion of a corporate network structure, through their ability to create links among firms not only within their boundaries but also external to them. The article contributes to both corporate network and business groups' literature, highlighting a role of business groups that extant literature has failed to identify as relevant.     

International comparisons of expenditure patterns

The linear expenditure system (LES) of Stone (1954) is fitted to an eight-commodity classification of personal consumption expenditures in the national accounts data of 19 countries widely dispersed in the development spectrum. Cross-country comparison of the results reveals some discernible patterns in the variations of price and expenditure elasticities as a function of GNP per head. In particular, Food's own-price and expenditure elasticities are estimated to decline in absolute value as real GNP per head increases. Overall, own-price elasticities and cross-price elasticities with respect to food appear to account for about 80% of total price responsiveness in the fitted system.