A theory of firm decline

We study the problem of an investor that buys an equity stake in an entrepreneurial venture, under the assumption that the former cannot monitor the latter's operations. The dynamics implied by the optimal incentive scheme is rich and quite different from that induced by other models of repeated moral hazard. In particular, our framework generates a rationale for firm decline. As young firms accumulate capital, the claims of both investor (outside equity) and entrepreneur (inside equity) increase. At some juncture, however, even as the latter continues to grow, invested capital and firm value start declining and so does the value of outside equity. The reason is that incentive provision is costlier the wealthier the entrepreneur (the greater is inside equity). In turn, this leads to a decline in the constrained-efficient level of effort and therefore to a drop in the return to investment.     

改进的宽带信号有理数倍采样率变换结构

针对现有的数字器件无法满足对宽带信号进行有理数倍采样率变换的问题,提出了 一种改进的宽带信号有理数倍采样率转换结构。在分析抽取器与内插器顺序的基础上,得出 了等效变换的前提条件,并结合多相滤波结构使改进的结构更具有实际应用价值。仿真实验 证明了改进后结构的有效性。通过与现有有理数倍采样率变换结构运算量对比分析表明,改 进后的结构的运算效率为传统结构运算效率的1/（LM）倍,其中L和M为变换过程中的内插因 子和抽取因子。     

A time series analysis of real wages,consumption and asset returns

This paper re-examines whether the time series properties of aggregate consumption, real wages, and asset returns can be explained by a neoclassical model. Previous empirical rejections of the model have suggested that the optimal labour contract model might be appropriate for understanding the time series properties of the real wage rate and consumption. We show that an optimal contract model restricts the long-run relation of the real wage rate and consumption. We exploit this long-run restriction (cointegration restriction) for estimating and testing the model, using Ogaki and Park's (1989) cointegration approach. This long-run restriction involves a parameter that we call the long-run intertemporal elasticity of substitution (IES) for non-durable consumption but does not involve the IES for leisure. This allows us to estimate the long-run IES for non-durable consumption from a cointegrating regression. Tests for the null of cointegration do not reject our model. As a further analysis, our estimates of the long-run IES for non-durable consumption are used to estimate the discount factor and a coefficient of time-nonseparability using Hansen's (1982) Generalized Method of Moments. We form a specification test for our model à la Hausman (1978) from these two steps. This specification test does not reject our model. © 1996 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

第四方物流研究的现状及展望

第四方物流因低成本、高效率、实时运作,能够实现最大范围的资源整合,适应时代需要应运而生。本文从第四方物流的产生背景及概念出发,结合第四方物流的集成与整合思想分析了其主要特点,总结了第四方物流的具体运作模式,指出了第四方物流的研究及应用前景。     

下游市场存在竞争的企业集团转移定价研究

基于企业集团面临下游竞争，研究了企业集团的中间产品的转移定价问题。研究结果表明，集团的中间产品的转移价格大干中间产品的边际成本。与Hirshkifer提出的边际成本转移定价策略相比，本文提出的转移定价策略为优。     

利用信息共享缓解牛鞭效应

文中首先阐述了牛鞭效应这一现象,其次从需求预测、批量订货和提前期等因素分析牛鞭效应产生的原因,最后提出供应链的各成员通过缔结契约供应合同实现信息共享以达到抑制牛鞭效应的目的。     

环境约束下中国地区工业化发展模式及路径选择

从技术效率和环境技术效率二维角度将我国工业化发展模式划分为四种类型,并利用１９９９-２００８年省级工业部门投入产出数据对我国３１个省市区的工业化发展路径进行实证研究。结果表明,东部地区相对实现了资源节约、环境友好型工业发展模式,而中西部地区总体上仍未走出资源浪费、环境污染型粗放式发展老路。地区间工业发展路径差异显著,河北、内蒙古、浙江、四川和重庆等地区实现了渐进式发展,广西实现了跨越式发展,陕西出现了倒退,而黑龙江、湖北、天津等地区则在经济效率和生态效率间摇摆。     

构建长效农业保险保障体制探讨

中央财政保费补贴政策自2007年实施以来,对新疆农业保险发展产生了积极影响,不仅显著提高了新疆农业保险的保障程度,增强了农业抗御自然灾害的能力,有效维护了新疆农村社会经济的稳定,而且显著降低了农业保险的赔付率水平,对农业保险的可持续发展和保险公司经营农险业务的积极性起到了积极的促进作用。中央财政保费补贴政策的实施还进一步调动和促进了新疆各级政府组织、推动农业保险的积极性和主动性。作为全国重要的粮、棉、油和畜牧业生产基地,新疆应积极抓住机遇,多方创造条件,进一步加大各级财政和龙头企业支农补农的投入力度,为农业保险发展创造有利的环境,以尽快建立长期有效的农业保险保障体制。