Testing for abnormal security-price performance under conditions of event-period uncertainty

This paper examines an event study test procedure based on cumulative average residuals (CARs) and a boundary-crossing probability for Brownian motion. The boundary-crossing test procedure is designed to detect abnormal security-price performance under conditions of event-period uncertainty. Simulations with daily security-return data show that the boundary-crossing test is well specified under the null hypothesis and has good power properties under the alternative hypothesis of abnormal security-price performance distributed over an event period of uncertain length.     

Risk Aversion,Uncertain Information,and Market Efficiency

Abstract. We reexamine and extend tests of the uncertain information hypothesis (UIH) proposed by Brown, Harlow, and Tinic (1988, 1993). We find that their empirical results are sensitive to the sampling procedure employed and that their particular methodology does not sufficiently distinguish between event and nonevent periods. When the sampling procedure is modified to identify only relatively large, isolated events, the test results generally do not support the UIH. Instead, significant price shocks are consistently followed by short-lived price reversals. We observe this behavior following positive and negative events regardless of whether the event is classified as risk increasing or risk decreasing.     

Abatement and Allocation in the Pilot Phase of the EU ETS

We use historical industrial emissions data to assess the level of abatement and over-allocation that took place across European countries during the pilot phase (2005–2007) of the European Union Emission Trading Scheme. Using a dynamic panel data model, we estimate the counter factual (business-as-usual) emissions scenario for EU member states. Comparing this baseline to allocated and verified emissions, we find that both over-allocation and abatement occurred, along with under-allocation and emissions inflation. Over the three trading years of the pilot phase we find over-allocation of approximately 280 million EUAs and total abatement of 247 Mt CO₂. However, we calculate that emissions inflation of approximately 73 Mt CO₂ also occurred, possibly due to uncertainty about future policy design features.     

Raising the bar (6)

Raising the bar (6). Spatial Economic Analysis. This editorial summarizes and comments on the papers published in issue 12(4) so as to raise the bar in applied spatial economic research and highlight new trends. The first paper addresses the question of whether ‘jobs follow people’ or ‘people follow jobs’. The second paper develops a new methodology to determine functional regions. The third paper is a major contribution to the growing literature on new modelling approaches and applications of disaster impact models. The fourth paper focuses on the costs and benefits of higher education. The fifth paper develops a two-step procedure to identify endogenously spatial regimes in the first step using geographically weighted regression, and to account for spatial dependence in the second step. Finally, the sixth paper estimates a dynamic spatial panel data model to explain house prices and to show that restricted housing supply in the city of Cambridge, UK, has some undesirable labour market effects.     

Income concentration and market demand

We analyze the effects of income concentration and income dispersionon market demand and its elasticity. We show that, followingan increase in income concentration towards the middle (measuredby variations in mean preserving spread), the increase in demandfaced by firms which serve at the margin middle income consumers,is associated with an increase in price elasticity—accordingly,the positive effects of the size of the market becoming widerare amplified by a higher degree of competition. Our resultshold for a large number of possible income distributions.     

INTANGIBLE CAPITAL AND U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH

Published macroeconomic data traditionally exclude most intangible investment from measured GDP. This situation is beginning to change, but our estimates suggest that as much as $800 billion is still excluded from U.S. published data (as of 2003), and that this leads to the exclusion of more than $3 trillion of business intangible capital stock. To assess the importance of this omission, we add intangible capital to the standard sources-of-growth framework used by the BLS, and find that the inclusion of our list of intangible assets makes a significant difference in the observed patterns of U.S. economic growth. The rate of change of output per worker increases more rapidly when intangibles are counted as capital, and capital deepening becomes the unambiguously dominant source of growth in labor productivity. The role of multifactor productivity is correspondingly diminished, and labor's income share is found to have decreased significantly over the last 50 years.     

Personal Income Distribution and Market Structure

Income distribution affects market demand and its elasticity, and, as a consequence, the optimal behaviour of firms and market equilibrium. This paper focuses on the effects of income polarization, and presents a model where – for any unimodal density function describing income distribution of the consumers – income polarization leads to market concentration, i.e., to a smaller number of firms able to survive in the long run, provided that the firms' fixed costs are sufficiently low.     

A MODEL OF MONOPOLISTIC COMPETITION WITH PERSONAL INCOME DISPERSION

We introduce non‐homothetic preferences in the Dixit–Stiglitz model of monopolistic competition, and enquire about the effects of a change in income dispersion on the firms’ optimal decisions and market equilibrium. Income dispersion, modeled as a mean preserving spread, is shown to affect only the degree of product differentiation under the standard negligibility hypothesis on the firms’ decision making process, while it generates a positive co‐movement of demand and demand elasticity, when this assumption is removed and the price index effect is taken into account.     

A note on direct term structure estimation using monotonic splines

A monotonic spline parametrization is proposed as a reliable alternative to the traditional Bernstein-based approach for Direct Term Structure Estimation. Numerical experiments with Italian bond data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method.     

Marshallian labour market pooling: Evidence from Italy

This paper employs a unique Italian data source to take a comprehensive approach to labour market pooling. It jointly considers many different aspects of the agglomeration — labour market relationship, including turnover, learning, matching, and hold up. It also considers labour market pooling from the perspective of both workers and firms and across a range of industries. Overall, the paper finds some support for theories of labour market pooling, but the support is weak. Specifically, there is a general positive relationship of turnover to local population density, which is consistent with theories of agglomeration and uncertainty. There is also evidence of on-the-job learning that is consistent with theories of labour pooling, labour poaching, and hold up. In addition, the paper provides evidence consistent with agglomeration improving job matches. However, the labour market pooling gains that we measure are small in magnitude and seem unlikely to account for a substantial share of the agglomeration benefits accruing to Italian workers and firms.