An Economic Analysis of the Effects on the World Dairy Sector of Extending Uruguay Round Agreement to 2005

A spatial equilibrium model of the world dairy sector is used to simulate the regional impacts of extending the 1995 Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture (URAA) dairy commitments to 2005. In particular, the import quota, within- and over-quota import tariff and export subsidy components of the URAA dairy commitments are analyzed both separately and jointly. This analysis provides insight into the tradeoffs among the various components of the URAA dairy trade liberalization. Extending the URAA to 2005 more than doubles the producer and consumer welfare impacts of the GATT 2000 relative to the BASE scenario for most regions. Aggregate producer and consumer welfare changes are estimated to be in the $2–5 billion range. Results suggest that western Europe remains heavily protected even after the URAA extension to 2005, and its dairy producers will lose the most with further, post-URAA dairy trade liberalization. In contrast, dairy producers in low-cost exporting regions (New Zealand, Australia and South America/South) will gain the most. Impacts of GATT 2005 on Japan, the U.S. and Canada are found to be relatively small. Un modèle àéquilibre spatial du secteur laitier mondial est utilisé pour simuler les impacts régionaux d'une reconduction des engagements laitiers de l'Accord sur l'agriculture de l'Uruguay Round (AAUR) de 1995 jusqu'à 2005. En particulier, nous analysons séparément et en interaction les contingents d'importation, les tarifs sur les importations faites à l'intérieur et au-delà des contingents et la section des engagements laitiers relative aux subventions des exportations. L'analyse jette un éclairage sur les compromis possibles parmi les divers éléments de la libéralisation préconisée par l'AAUR. Une reconduction de l'AAUR jusqu'en 2005 ferait plus que doubler les impacts sociaux du GATT 2000 sur les producteurs et sur les consommateurs dans la plupart des régions, par comparaison au scénario de base. Ces impacts pourraient se chiffrer entre 2 et 5 milliards de dollars. Des calculs modélisés, il ressort que l'Union Européenne resterait lourdement protégée, même après l'extension de l'AAUR jusqu'en 2005 et que ses producteurs laitiers seront ceux qui auront le plus à perdre d'une libéralisation plus radicale du commerce àl'expiration de l'Accord. En revanche, les producteurs laitiers des régions exportatrices à faibles coûts de production, comme la Nouvelle-Zélande, l'Australie et la partie méridionale de l'Amérique du Sud sont ceux qui auront le plus à gagner. Les impacts de GATT 2005 sur le Japan, sur les États-Unis et sur le Canada seraient relativement peu importants.     

Pension Fund Manager Tournaments and Attitudes Towards Corporate Characteristics

Abstract:  This paper explores the relationship between the tournament incentives of pension fund managers and the characteristics of equities they choose to hold. Using a comprehensive data set on pension fund portfolio holdings, we determine the intensity of fund manager tournaments by sorting pension funds into portfolios based on the number of concurrent managers each pension fund employs. We then investigate which corporate characteristics are preferred by each of these portfolios by estimating share selection models that include a range of corporate characteristics that are expected to shape the returns to investment in stocks over the short and long run. We find that the intensity of the tournament faced by fund managers plays a significant role in shaping preferences over corporate characteristics. Managers facing more intense tournaments exhibit significantly weaker preferences for attributes associated with long run payoffs, such as social performance and growth potential, and significantly stronger preferences for short term attributes, such as operational efficiency, when compared to managers that face weak or no tournament incentives.     

Modelling a Research Portfolio Using AHP: A Group Decision Process

The problem of choosing a research portfolio has been in the literature for many years. Suggested solutions have ranged from simple scoring models to complex mathematical resource allocation models, but the acceptance rate has been low. In this paper we present an application of a model based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process to a group decision situation. The results are encouraging, showing the positive nature of a model as a focal point in the process. They show that the interactive nature of the methodology encourages the development of subjective estimates and their subsequent discussion. An attempt to counter the problems of biasing has also been made. The methodology presented is seen to be easy to use and adaptable, and becomes an integrating mechanism for the group.     

Multivariate Exponential Tilting and Pricing Implications for Mortality Securitization

Normalized exponential tilting is an extension of classical theories, including the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and the Black–Merton–Scholes model, to price risks with general‐shaped distributions. The need for changing multivariate probability measures arises in pricing contingent claims on multiple underlying assets or liabilities. In this article, we apply it to valuation of mortality‐based securities written on mortality indices of several countries. We show how to use multivariate exponential tilting to price the first pure mortality security, the Swiss Re bond. The same technique can be applied in other mortality securitization pricing.     

Barking up the right tree: Are small groups rational agents?

Both mainstream economics and its critics have focused on models of individual rational agents even though most important decisions are made by small groups. Little systematic work has been done to study the behavior of small groups as decision-making agents in markets and other strategic games. This may limit the relevance of both economics and its critics to the objective of developing an understanding of how most important decisions are made. In order to gain some insight into this issue, this paper compares group and individual economic behavior. The objective of the research is to learn whether there are systematic differences between decisions made by groups and individual agents in market environments characterized by risky outcomes. A quantitative measure of deviation from minimally-rational decisions is used to compare group and individual behavior in common value auctions. JEL Classification D44, C91, C92     

How to identify trust and reciprocity

This paper uses a three-games (or triadic) design to identify trusting and reciprocating behavior. A large literature on single-game trust and reciprocity experiments is based on the implicit assumption that subjects do not have altruistic or inequality-averse other-regarding preferences. Such experimental designs test compound hypotheses that include the hypothesis that other-regarding preferences do not affect behavior. In contrast, experiments with the triadic design do discriminate between transfers resulting from trust or reciprocity and transfers resulting from other-regarding preferences that are not conditional on the behavior of others. Decomposing trust from altruism and reciprocity from altruism or inequality aversion is critical to obtaining empirical information that can guide the process of constructing models that can increase the empirical validity of game theory.     

Competition between auctions

Even though auctions are capturing an increasing share of commerce, they are typically treated in the theoretical economics literature as isolated. That is, an auction is typically treated as a single seller facing multiple buyers or as a single buyer facing multiple sellers. In this paper, we review the state of the art of competition between auctions. We consider three different types of competition: competition between auctions, competition between formats, and competition between auctioneers vying for auction traffic. We highlight the newest experimental, statistical, and analytical methods in the analysis of competition between auctions.     

Epidemiology of fatal and non-fatal drowning patients attended by paramedics in Victoria,Australia

Drowning is a major cause of injury and death worldwide. This study aims to expand the evidence in fatal and non-fatal drowning. A retrospective study was conducted to investigate fatal and non-fatal drowning incidents attended by ambulance paramedics in Victoria (Australia) from 2007 to 2012. A total of 509 drowning incidents were identified, 339 (66.6%) were non-fatal, with 170 (33.4%) resulting in death. Children aged 0–4 years had the highest crude drowning rate (7.95 per 100,000 persons). Non-fatal incidents were more likely to be witnessed by a bystander when compared with fatal incidents (43.7% vs. 20.0%, p < 0.001). Spatial analysis indicated that 35 (43.8%) local government areas (LGAs) were considered at ‘excess risk’ of a drowning event occurring. This study is the first to apply spatial analysis to determine relative risk ratios for fatal and non-fatal drowning. These findings will enable geographically targeted and age-specific drowning prevention activities.