A Proposal to Replace 'True and Fair View' With 'Acceptable Risk of Material Misstatement'

This article examines argumentation factors which affect the truth of an audit opinion. We propose that the auditor's report be revised to replace the words 'true and fair view' with 'acceptable risk of material misstatement'. This would better align the communication of auditors with the characteristics of accounting information upon which they report. Adoption of the wording 'acceptable risk of material misstatement' will facilitate a better appreciation by users of financial statements of the accounting estimates in financial statements.     

An econometric model of nonlinear dynamics in the joint distribution of stock and bond returns

This paper considers a variety of econometric models for the joint distribution of US stock and bond returns in the presence of regime switching dynamics. While simple two‐ or three‐state models capture the univariate dynamics in bond and stock returns, a more complicated four‐state model with regimes characterized as crash, slow growth, bull and recovery states is required to capture their joint distribution. The transition probability matrix of this model has a very particular form. Exits from the crash state are almost always to the recovery state and occur with close to 50% chance, suggesting a bounce‐back effect from the crash to the recovery state. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Democracy and environmental quality

We develop and estimate an econometric model of the relationship between several local and global air pollutants and economic development while allowing for critical aspects of the socio-political-economic regime of a State. We obtain empirical support for our hypothesis that democracy and its associated freedoms provide the conduit through which agents can exercise their preferences for environmental quality more effectively than under an autocratic regime, thus leading to decreased concentrations or emissions of pollution. However, additional factors such as income inequality, age distribution, education, and urbanization may mitigate or exacerbate the net effect of the type of political regime on pollution, depending on the underlying societal preferences and the weights assigned to those preferences by the State.     

How U.S. Farm Programs and Crop Revenue Insurance Affect Returns to Farm Land

A simulation model incorporating price and yield variability is used to examine the impact of government farm program and crop revenue coverage (CRC) insurance payments on the probability distribution of returns to land. Results indicate that Marketing Loan Program payments have the greatest impact on both the mean and standard deviation of returns. Agricultural Market Transition Act payments shift the distribution of returns without changing the variability, creating a reduction in relative risk. Market loss assistance payments increase the mean, reduce variability, and increase skewness. When combined, farm programs substantially increase the value that risk-averse producers place on the residual returns to land and substantially reduce the certainty equivalent value of CRC.     

Information trading by corporate insiders based on accounting accruals: forecasting economic performance

In this paper, we test whether directors’ (corporate insiders) trading in Australia, based on accounting accruals, provides incremental information in forecasting a firm's economic performance. We determine that directors’ trading on negative accruals in larger firms has greater forecasting content and is associated with 1‐year‐ahead bull market phases. Moreover, arbitrage portfolios set up to mimic insider trading can earn 1‐year‐ahead excess size‐adjusted arbitrage returns of up to 12.2 per cent. Results are consistent with directors hiding their trades in liquid well‐traded firms and in providing incremental information above that supplied by a continuous information regime.     

Networks,Infrastructure and the New Task for Regulation. Werner Sichel and Donald L. Alexander,editors.

Review of Industrial Organization -     

Determinants of Co-operative Patronage in Alberta

Co-operative managers face an increasingly heterogeneous pool of potential members. Because these members bring a variety of economic and noneconomic demands to their co-operative, managers must know how different member characteristics and performance perceptions influence their decision to patronize a co-operative. This study applies three models of co-operative patronage to survey data from rural Alberta. A Poisson regression is used to determine the factors that explain the number of co-operatives used, while an index of co-operative patronage measures the relative intensity of co-operative versus proprietary firm usage. A third model contucts a Tobit analysis of the amount of business conducted with each of several different types of co-operatives. The results show that older farmers tend to partonize more co-operatives, and larger farms do a greater share of their business with co-operatives than do smaller fiarms. Farmers who believe co-operatives offer innovative products and services are more likely to patronize them, while a belief that co-operatives should play an active role in noneconomic matters is not important.     

An Investigation of the Impact of Interest Rates and Interest Rate Volatility on Australian Financial Sector Stock Return Distributions

Abstract:   This paper extends the existing literature by analysing the dual impact of changes in the interest rate and interest rate volatility on the distribution of Australian financial sector stock returns. In addition, a multivariate GARCH‐M model is used to analyse the impact of deregulation on the financial institutions sector. It was found that there is a consistent inter‐temporal trade off between risk and return over the different regulatory periods. Moreover, finance corporations were found to be highly sensitive to new shocks across the financial sector and deregulation increased the risk faced by finance corporations and small banks – effectively increasing the required rate of return and explaining the continued rationalisation of these sectors. Furthermore, deregulation has changed the fundamental relationship between interest rates and large bank stock excess returns from positive in the pre‐deregulation period to negative in the post‐deregulation period. This reflects the changing institutional environment from one of controlled credit rationing to a more competitive environment.     

THE VOLUNTARY PRESENTATION OF VALUE ADDED STATEMENTS IN AUSTRALIA: A POLITICAL COST PERSPECTIVE

This paper explores corporate management's incentive to voluntarily disclose Value Added Statements in their yearly financial reports. Adopting a political cost perspective, hypotheses relating Value Added Statement disclosure to labour intensity, corporate tax payments, rate of return, size and industry volatility are developed. Using a sample of Australian publicly listed companies, the results of our empirical testing support the hypotheses that the decision to voluntarily disclose Value Added Statements is related to a company's size (in terms of both market concentration and profitability), a proportional measure of tax payments and the industry to which it belongs. Labour intensity and rate of return were found to be unrelated to the voluntarily disclosure of Value Added Statements.