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191.
This paper develops a flexible approach to combine forecasts of future spot rates with forecasts from time-series models or macroeconomic variables. We find empirical evidence that, accounting for both regimes in interest rate dynamics, and combining forecasts from different models, helps improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance for US short-term rates. Imposing restrictions from the expectations hypothesis on the forecasting model are found to help at long forecasting horizons. 相似文献
192.
The current study seeks to demonstrate that a citizen views about public meeting structure and related groups matter in predicting satisfaction with public engagement and willingness to attend future meetings. Public health agencies frequently use public meetings to communicate risk information, but relatively little social science research has examined how potential meeting participants view them. Using survey data (N?=?866) collected in seven US communities where health agencies were investigating possible local cancer clusters and holding public meetings to communicate with local residents, the current study replicates and extends an earlier inquiry related to citizens satisfaction with public meetings used for risk communication. Whereas previous research found that expectations, health agency credibility, and risk perceptions predicted satisfaction with public meetings, the current results did not show a significant relationship between agency credibility, risk perceptions, and satisfaction. Further, the results suggest it may make sense to consider ‘views about public meetings’ as a single measure that includes citizens’ structural expectations for meetings. Finally, the current study finds that views about public officials and views about meetings relate to individuals’ willingness to attend future meetings. Additional variable development and modeling research is suggested. 相似文献
193.
Migration is a risky behaviour because of the uncertainty about future wages, living conditions, changing relationships with family and friends and cultural adjustment. While there has been some research on risk and uncertainty in migration, this has mostly been approached as a form of ‘rational’ decision-making: such approaches explain why some groups of individuals are more likely than others to migrate, but are limited in explaining individual variations in behaviour within these groups. Individual migrants vs. non-migrants are self-selected in terms of tolerance of risk and uncertainty but, with very few exceptions, there has been no research on migration within the framework of risk tolerance/aversion and competence to manage risk. Moreover, existing research is based on, and constrained by the limitations of, incumbent data-sets. Drawing on a specially commissioned large-scale survey of the UK population, this paper uses principal component analysis and logistic regression to analyse the extent to which risk and risk-related measures can be used to predict four different types of mobility profiles. There are significant associations between these individual mobility characteristics and general risk/uncertainty tolerance, and competence-based tolerance. These are strongest in terms of the two most polarised mobility types: the least mobile, the Stayers, and the most mobile, the Roamers. Recognising that previous migration is exogenous, a further analysis of migration intentions, with previous migration included as an independent variable, finds the propensity for future migration is, in fact, negatively associated with previous migration, probably due to the importance of ‘pure risk’ as opposed to acquired competence via migration experience, and to life cycle considerations. 相似文献
194.
This paper implements strategies that use macroeconomic variables to select European equity mutual funds, including Pan-European, country, and sector funds. We find that several macro-variables are useful in locating funds with future outperformance and that country-specific mutual funds provide the best opportunities for fund rotation strategies using macroeconomic information. Specifically, our baseline long-only strategies that exploit time-varying predictability provide four-factor alphas of 12–13% per year over the 1993–2008 period. Our study provides new evidence on the skills of local versus Pan-European asset managers, as well as how macroeconomic information can be used to locate and time these local fund manager skills. 相似文献
195.
We develop a simple model in which firm-specific advertising has cooperative and predatory effects. Our model is set in a static market where firms are naturally segmented into two distinct submarkets: several large firms located in the core, with small firms operating as a fringe. We test the net effect of opposing market size (cooperative) and market share (predatory) effects of both fringe and core firm advertising on the advertising decisions of large firms in several US consumer industries. Empirically, fringe firm advertising leads to an increase in advertising efforts by large firms, implying strategic complementarity. On the other hand, increased advertising by core firms in an industry decreases advertising expenditures of other core firms, indicating they are strategic substitutes. Our findings imply that equilibrium levels of advertising can be greater with asymmetric, rather than symmetric, strategic interactions. 相似文献
196.
Craig S. Webb 《Economic Theory》2013,52(1):15-39
This paper reconsiders the Bargaining Problem of Nash (Econometrica 28:155–162, 1950). I develop a new approach, Conditional Bargaining Problems, as a framework for measuring cardinal utility. A Conditional Bargaining Problem is the conjoint extension of a Bargaining Problem, conditional on the fact that the individuals have agreed on a “measurement event”. Within this context, Subjective Mixture methods are especially powerful. These techniques are used to characterise versions of the Nash and the Kalai–Smorodinsky solutions. This approach identifies solutions based only on the individuals’ tastes for the outcomes. It is therefore possible to do Bargaining theory in almost complete generality. The results apply to Biseparable preferences, so are valid for almost all non-expected utility models currently used in economics. 相似文献
197.
Craig C. Julian 《Journal Of Asia-Pacific Business》2013,14(1):6-27
ABSTRACT International Joint Ventures (IJVs) have become an important means of market entry for many firms, particularly those seeking entry into Asia (Lin and Germain, 1999). As such, it is important to understand what causes some IJVs to fail and others to succeed. This study examines the relationship between partners' needs, commitment, control, and conflict between the IJV partners in a developing country of South East Asia. The findings revealed that IJV inter-party conflict was significantly influenced by all three variables, namely, partners' needs, commitment and control thereby providing support for previous research in a different national setting. 相似文献
198.
Craig C. Julian Renee M. Wachter Carolyn B. Mueller 《Journal Of Asia-Pacific Business》2013,14(2):107-129
This article examines relationships among top-management-team composition, group processes, and the effects of those processes on cohesion for international joint venture teams in Thailand. For culturally diverse teams, demographic elements (member age, length of team tenure, level of education, functional expertise) and cultural characteristics (country of education, nationality, affiliation with a parent organization, primary language spoken) define heterogeneity. Overall, demographic heterogeneity had a significant influence on openness among team members and on cohesion when mediated by openness. Cultural heterogeneity had a significant influence on openness and cohesion among team members, with loyalty and openness having a significant influence on cohesion. 相似文献
199.
In a study of 1304 Australian manufacturing industry SMEs, we investigate the relationships among networking (i.e., inter-personal and inter-organisational networks), international market venturing (i.e., export intensity), and family ownership. We find evidence that (1) inter-personal networking and inter-organisational networking positively influence SME international market venturing, but this relationship is contingent on a time lag effect, and (2) family ownership negatively moderates the effect of inter-organisational networking on international market venturing. Implications for managerial practice and public policy are discussed. 相似文献
200.
Empirical research on the effect of bank competition on bank risk has so far produced very inconclusive results. In this paper we revisit this long-standing debate and propose a new empirical approach that is concentrated on the relationship between deposit market competition and bank risk. This approach closely follows the traditional theoretical views of the competition and risk relationship and is focused on testing the classical moral hazard problem of the bank: deposit market competition raises the optimal risk choice of the bank by raising the costs of bank liabilities. Since banks can substitute between retail and wholesale funding, we relate deposit market competition to wholesale market conditions and examine their joint effect on the risk of bank assets. The analysis is based on a unique, comprehensive dataset, which combines retail deposit rate data with data on bank characteristics and data on local deposit market features for a sample of 589 US banks. Our results support the notion of a risk-enhancing effect of deposit market competition. 相似文献