PARTISAN POLITICS, INTEREST RATES AND THE STOCK MARKET: EVIDENCE FROM AMERICAN AND BRITISH RETURNS IN THE TWENTIETH CENTURY

We examine the relationship between government partisanship, interest rates and the mean and volatility of stock prices in the United States and United Kingdom. We suggest that traders in the stock market rationally expect higher (lower) post-electoral interest rates during the incumbency of the left-wing (right-wing) party – Democrats and Labor (Republican and Conservative) – and in election years when they expect the left-wing (right-wing) party to win elections. We hypothesize that expectations of higher (lower) interest rates decrease (increase) the mean and volatility of stock prices during the actual incumbency or even anticipation of a left-wing (right-wing) party holding the office of the chief executive. Results from empirical models estimated on data from U.S. and U.K. markets over most of the twentieth century statistically support our claims.     

Technology Shocks and Job Flows

We consider a version of the Solow growth model where technological progress can be investment specific or investment neutral. The labour market is subject to search frictions, and the existing productive units may fail to adopt the most recent technological advances. Technological progress can lead to the destruction of technologically obsolete jobs and cause unemployment. We calibrate the model to replicate the high persistence that characterizes the dynamics of firms' neutral technology and the frequency of firms' capital adjustment. We find that neutral technological advances increase job destruction and job reallocation and reduce aggregate employment. Investment-specific technological advances reduce job destruction, have mild effects on job creation, and are expansionary. Hence, neutral technological progress prompts Schumpeterian creative destruction, while investment-specific technological progress operates essentially as in the standard neoclassical growth model. Using structural VAR models, we provide support to the key dynamic implications of the model.     

CONSEQUENCES OF MINIMUM WAGE INDEXING

During the 1980s, the minimum wage fell relative to prices and average wages in the U.S. economy. If the minimum to average wage ratio had been constant at the level maintained through the 1970s, the minimum wage would have been $5.51 in 1993. If the 1993 minimum wage had increased to $5.51, payments to minimum wage workers would have increased by an estimated $20.3 billion, and the number of people earning that wage would have risen from 2.0 million to 14.7 million. Elasticity estimates generated from other studies indicate that employment would have fallen 240,000 (4.4%) among 16–19 year olds and 349,000 (3.0%) among 20–24 year olds. Wage payments to minimum wage workers would have substantially increased, but the effect on family income distribution would have been small. Many minimum wage workers are children living with parents or adults in a family with other earners. Consequently, 75% of minimum wage workers account for less than half of their family's income.     

Forward Discount Bias: Is it Near-Rationality in the Foreign Exchange Market?*

A risk-averse US investor adjusts the shares of a portfolio of short-term nominal domestic and foreign assets to maximize expected utility. The optimal strategy is to respond immediately to all new information which arrives weekly. We develop a model to estimate the cost of optimizing less frequently and find that it is generally very small. For example, if the investor adjusts portfolio shares every three months, an average expected utility loss of 0.16 per cent p.a. is incurred. Hence, slight opportunity costs of frequent optimization may outweigh the benefits. This result may help explain forward discount bias.     

Work is a Four‐Letter Word: The Economics of Work in Historical and Critical Perspective*

The article highlights and explains the neglect of the activity of work in much of the mainstream economics literature. The neglect of work is seen to have denied space for mainstream economists to engage with the full range of possibilities for progress in human well‐being. The article also considers perspectives on work from within heterodox or non‐mainstream economics and argues that these perspectives provide a superior foundation for the theorization of work.     

SCHOOL CHOICE: SUPPORTERS AND OPPONENTS

We examine the attitudes of Ohio homeowners about school choice, which includes open enrollment programs, school vouchers, tuition tax credits, and charter schools. Previous studies examine more limited forms of choice and investigate fewer possible influences. Overall we report at least five new findings and five findings that contradict previous studies. We find the strongest predictors of opposition for school choice are people having graduate degrees and living in high‐performing public school districts. We find people living in blue collar areas and using private schools to be the strongest predictors of support. Males tend to oppose choice and African Americans support it. We find no role for income, the convenience of alternative schools, or the protection of house values in support for school choice. Overall we report at least five new findings and five findings that contradict previous studies. (JEL H44, I22)     

CAN SOFT DRINK TAXES REDUCE POPULATION WEIGHT?

Soft drink consumption has been hypothesized as one of the major factors in the growing rates of obesity in the United States. Nearly two-thirds of all states currently tax soft drinks using excise taxes, sales taxes, or special exceptions to food exemptions from sales taxes to reduce consumption of this product, raise revenue, and improve public health. In this paper, we evaluate the impact of changes in state soft drink taxes on body mass index (BMI), obesity, and overweight. Our results suggest that soft drink taxes influence BMI, but that the impact is small in magnitude. ( JEL I18, H75)     

Optimal Dissent in Organizations

We model an organization as a two-agent hierarchy: an informed Decision Maker in charge of selecting projects and a (possibly) uninformed Implementer in charge of their execution. Both have intrinsic preferences over projects. This paper models the costs and benefits of divergence between their preferences, that is, dissent within the organization. Dissent is useful to (1) foster the use of objective (and sometimes private) information in decision making and (2) give credibility to the Decision Maker's choices. However, dissent comes at the cost of hurting the Implementer's intrinsic motivation, thereby impairing organizational efficiency. We show that dissent can be optimal, in particular, when information is useful and uncertainty is high. Moreover, dissent remains an optimal organizational form even when Implementers can choose their employer or when Decision Makers have real authority over hiring decisions.

Workers do, and managers figure out what to do.
                                            F. Knight (1921)

     

Do Casual Workers Find Permanent Full-Time Employment? Evidence from the Australian Youth Survey

The growth of casual employment in Australia is sometimes viewed with concern. Such 'non-standard' forms of employment are often associated with intermittent labour force attachment, underemployment and low income. In this paper, we use data from the Australian Youth Survey to analyze the transition from casual work to full-time permanent jobs. In the short term, gender, employer-provided training and the receipt of government benefits are among the more important factors affecting the transition. However, these factors are less important in the long term. Overall, the results suggest that casual employment may be more of a 'stepping stone' than a 'dead-end'.     

An Error Component Logit Analysis of Corporate Bankruptcy and Insolvency Risk in Australia

This paper introduces a four-state failure model to depict a wider range of distress scenarios that public companies typically face in the real world. We use a multinomial error component logit model to analyse firm failure, a major advance on the modelling techniques used in previous research. The error component logit model, being an extension of the more familiar mixed logit model, relaxes several questionable statistical assumptions associated with standard models. Using a sample of Australian firms we provide an interpretative illustration of the error component logit model and contrast its behavioural performance with the standard logit model widely used in previous research.