From private label to co-branded credit card: an assessment of the impact of a change in value proposition over customer value perception and company value capture

Journal of Financial Services Marketing - Purpose: The aim of this paper is to evaluate the success of a value proposition over time, considering two aspects: customer’s perceived value and...     

Public perceptions of food-related risks: a cross-national investigation of individual and contextual influences

Public concerns about food risks have grown in recent decades in response to many food-related scandals. Despite some evidence that risk concerns vary across societies and risk domains, these variations remain understudied. To address this gap, this paper conducts a multi-level analysis of public concerns about biological and chemical/technical food risks in 26 European countries. Findings confirm previous work on individual predictors of risk concern and suggest that several contextual factors contribute to cross-national variations: aggregate perceptions of risks as unnatural, retail concentration in the food sector, and media coverage. The effect of institutional trust on risk concerns varies substantially across nations. Findings also reveal important differences in public concerns about biological versus chemical/technical food risks, supporting the view that food risk perception is multi-dimensional and complex.     

Equity valuation: A survey of professional practice

This paper reports the results of a scientific survey of the equity valuation practices of CFA Institute members with equity analysis job responsibilities. Using an instrument designed to minimize biases in prior valuation surveys and sampling a larger group than in previous studies (13,500 investment professionals, resulting in 1,980 valid completed questionnaires), this paper documents professional practices in the selection of equity valuation approaches, including specific model variations and key input preferences. Important differences in practice were observed across geographies and employer firm types.     

Commercial Real Estate Market Property Level Capital Expenditures: An Options Analysis

The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics - Option pricing theory predicts that capital improvement expenditures are positively linked with high or increasing market lease rates. Ceteris...     

Sparse Signals in the Cross‐Section of Returns

This paper applies the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) to make rolling one‐minute‐ahead return forecasts using the entire cross‐section of lagged returns as candidate predictors. The LASSO increases both out‐of‐sample fit and forecast‐implied Sharpe ratios. This out‐of‐sample success comes from identifying predictors that are unexpected, short‐lived, and sparse. Although the LASSO uses a statistical rule rather than economic intuition to identify predictors, the predictors it identifies are nevertheless associated with economically meaningful events: the LASSO tends to identify as predictors stocks with news about fundamentals.     

Far from the madding crowd: collective wisdom in prediction markets

We investigate market selection and bet pricing in a repeated prediction market model. We derive the conditions for long-run survival of more than one agent (the crowd) and quantify the information content of prevailing prices in the case of fractional Kelly traders with heterogeneous beliefs. It turns out that, apart some non-generic situations, prices do not converge, neither almost surely nor on average, to true probabilities, nor are they always nearer to the truth than the beliefs of all surviving agents. This implies that, in general, prediction market prices are not maximum likelihood estimators of the true probabilities. However, when more than one agent survives, the average price emerging from a prediction market approximates the true probability with lower information loss than any individual belief.     

Notes from a life influenced by Wendell Bell

Wendell Bell's idealistic vision of the role of the sociologist in creating a brighter future for society and his theoretical framework of the role of intellectual elites in the decisions of nationhood are examined through the personal lens of a former Caribbean student of the West Indies Study Program at UCLA.     

The IPO market as a screening device and the going public decision: evidence from acquisitions of privately and publicly held firms

The main purpose of this paper is using a unique data set from IPO filings to study the IPO market as a screening device and the going public decision. We find that private firms that are less likely to have the option to access public equity markets receive 54 cents for each dollar they expected to raise in an IPO, whereas firms that are more likely to have the option to go public but sell privately sell at $1.11 for each dollar they expected to receive at the IPO. This result suggests that the lower valuation for firms sold in private markets compared to firms sold in public markets can be at least partially explained by the lower relative bargaining power of private firms. However, owners that took their firms public before selling received, on average, 40% larger payoffs than owners that had the option to go public but decided to sell privately. The results in this study indicate that these differences in valuation are not fully explained by existing theoretical models on the decision to sell privately or in two stages.     

Corporate governance and the probability of default

We employ Merton's probability of default as a continuous ex‐ante measure of the likelihood of firm failure and dynamic panel generalised method of moments to better characterise the relationship between corporate governance and the chance of default. In doing so, we overcome limitations of discrete proxies widely used in previous studies and more completely account for endogeneity issues permeating this area of research. While initial testing designed to facilitate comparison with previous studies suggests a significant relationship between the probability of default and executive pay, board structure and ownership structure, once endogeneity concerns are accounted for, no such relationship remains.