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41.
Rationalizable foresight dynamics 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
This paper proposes and studies the rationalizable foresight dynamics. A normal form game is repeatedly played in a random matching fashion by a continuum of agents who make decisions at stochastic points in time. A rationalizable foresight path is a feasible path of action distribution along which each agent takes an action that maximizes his expected discounted payoff against another path which is in turn a rationalizable foresight path. We consider a set-valued stability concept under this dynamics and compare it with the corresponding concept under the perfect foresight dynamics. 相似文献
42.
This paper considers the robustness of equilibria to a small amount of incomplete information, where players are allowed to have heterogeneous priors. An equilibrium of a complete information game is robust to incomplete information under non-common priors if for every incomplete information game where each player's prior assigns high probability on the event that the players know at arbitrarily high order that the payoffs are given by the complete information game, there exists a Bayesian Nash equilibrium that generates behavior close to the equilibrium in consideration. It is shown that for generic games, an equilibrium is robust under non-common priors if and only if it is the unique rationalizable action profile. Set-valued concepts are also introduced, and for generic games, a smallest robust set is shown to exist and coincide with the set of a posteriori equilibria. 相似文献
43.
Several new statistical procedures for high-frequency financial data analysis have been developed to estimate risk quantities and test the presence of jumps in the underlying continuous-time financial processes. Although the role of micro-market noise is important in high-frequency financial data, there are some basic questions on the effects of presence of noise and jump in the underlying stochastic processes. When there can be jumps and (micro-market) noise at the same time, it is not obvious whether the existing statistical methods are reliable for applications in actual data analysis. We investigate the misspecification effects of jumps and noise on some basic statistics and the testing procedures for jumps proposed by Ait-Sahalia and Jacod (Ann Stat 37–1:184–222 2009; 38–5:3093–3123 2010) as an illustration. We find that their first test (testing the presence of jumps as a null-hypothesis) is asymptotically robust in the small-noise asymptotic sense against possible misspecifications while their second test (testing no-jumps as a null-hypothesis) is quite sensitive to the presence of noise. 相似文献
44.
This study proposes a new method for creating an index-tracking portfolio using time series decomposition. First, we construct index-tracking portfolios of stocks chosen because their price movements mimic that of the Dow-Jones Industrial Average. Our method utilizes similarities of constituent stocks to the benchmark that are assessed by distances of time series trends derived from decomposing original series. Although the portfolios chosen by our method reasonably tracked the performance of the benchmark, they did not surpass the clustering approach discussed in earlier studies. Therefore, we examined what causes tracking error and found that two causes for deficiencies in our similarity-based method, which are unintended irregular movements of holding stocks and highly correlated relationships within stocks in the portfolio. To overcome them and to improve tracking performance, we propose a similarity-balanced approach that is another index-tracking method with alternate use of similarity. Doing so improved the tracking performance by avoiding the problem of high correlation among the stocks chosen under the initial method. 相似文献
45.
Moshe Ben-Akiva André de Palma Daniel McFadden Maya Abou-Zeid Pierre-André Chiappori Matthieu de Lapparent Steven N. Durlauf Mogens Fosgerau Daisuke Fukuda Stephane Hess Charles Manski Ariel Pakes Nathalie Picard Joan Walker 《Marketing Letters》2012,23(2):439-456
We develop a general framework that extends choice models by including an explicit representation of the process and context of decision making. Process refers to the steps involved in decision making. Context refers to factors affecting the process, focusing in this paper on social networks. The extended choice framework includes more behavioral richness through the explicit representation of the planning process preceding an action and its dynamics and the effects of context (family, friends, and market) on the process leading to a choice, as well as the inclusion of new types of subjective data in choice models. We discuss the key issues involved in applying the extended framework, focusing on richer data requirements, theories, and models, and present three partial demonstrations of the proposed framework. Future research challenges include the development of more comprehensive empirical tests of the extended modeling framework. 相似文献
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47.
Kazunobu Hayakawa Daisuke Hiratsuka Kohei Shiino Seiya Sukegawa 《Asian Economic Journal》2013,27(3):245-264
The utilization of ASEAN free trade agreements (FTA) is low by international standards. To clarify the reasons for such low utilization, this paper uses unique affiliate‐level data to investigate what kinds of Japanese affiliates in ASEAN are more likely to use an FTA scheme in their exporting. Our findings are as follows. First, the larger the affiliate is, or the more diversified the origins of its procurements, the more likely it is to utilize an FTA scheme in its exporting. Second, affiliates that export actively to countries with higher general tariffs are more likely to use FTA. Third, there are clear differences in FTA utilization depending on affiliates' locations and sectors. 相似文献
48.
Spatial Cournot competition and economic welfare: a note 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
We investigated welfare implications in location-quantity models in a symmetric linear city. We found that when firms are not agglomerated in equilibrium, increasing the distance between firms raises (reduces) producer surplus and social welfare (consumer surplus). Moreover, central agglomeration is always optimal for consumers among symmetric locations, but not necessarily for producers. Central agglomeration can be inefficient even if it is the unique equilibrium outcome. In short, the firms are more likely to agglomerate or locate closer than what welfare maximizers would dictate, whereas they locate farther apart than what consumer surplus maximizers would recommend. 相似文献
49.
We revisit works by Pal and Matsushima, which, respectively, present different equilibrium locations. We consider nonlinear transport costs and show that Pal's result (dispersion) is more robust than Matsushima's (partial agglomeration). Pal's result holds true for any transport cost function, while Matsushima's does not hold under strong concavity or convexity of the transport cost function. If we consider sequential move of location. Pal's result holds for any transport costs. On the other hand, Matsushima's does not hold except for linear transport cost. We also discuss welfare and show that nonlinearity of the transport cost function yields rich welfare implications. 相似文献
50.
Daisuke Tsuruta 《Asian Economic Journal》2013,27(4):341-367
The present study investigates whether credit contagion leads to a decrease in trade credit for small businesses. In 1997–1998, the Japanese economy experienced a deep recession, and the domino effect caused an increase in the number of dishonored bills and bankruptcy filings. During a period of credit contagion, the possibility of default increases for firms with more financial claims and lower cash holdings. We find that during a recession, trade payables for small businesses with higher trade receivables and lower cash holdings are reduced. The hypothesis that the effects of credit risk on trade payables are weakened is not supported. 相似文献