Nominal vs real adjustment in demand for money functions

Recently, Fair (1987) has addressd an interesting question in the areas of demand for money, namely, whether the adjustment of actual to desired demand for money is in nominal or real terms. His conclusion, based on time-seies analysis for twenty-seven countries, including a few developing countries, was that the evidence was overwhelmingly in favour of the nominal hypothesis.

The aim of this paper is to address the same issue for eleven Asian countries. In the process, a reformulation of the test procedure used by Fair is suggested. In addition, the question is also examined within the framework of the error correction model. The models are also tested for structural stability.

The scheme of the paper is as follows. The models and the tests are specified in Section I. The data and the estimation issues are dealt with in Section II. Section III presents the results. The paper is concluded with a brief summary of the major findings.     

Stochastic trend,weather and US corn yield variability

Regional corn yield models incorporating stochastic trends, prices and weather variables are estimated. Hypothesis tests suggest yield variability has increased because of an increase in error variance and an increase in weather-related effects. Decomposition of the error variance shows much of its increase is due to an increased correlaion between regional yields.     

Monetary dynamics: a market approach

The behaviour of the short-run responses implied by the identification of a long-run money demand relationship is examined. These responses have recently been interpreted as representing the policy stance of the monetary authority. However, as movements in the monetary aggregate reflect both demand and supply adjustments, estimating the short-run dynamics solely within the money demand relationship may produce biased results. In order to address this issue, the paper explicitly acknowledges the importance of the supply of money function by including the function alongside the demand for money function. While the interaction of the two equations continues to produce the long-run quantity theory result, the additional detail provides more accurate estimates of the individual short-run adjustments within the two equations.     

Long-term trend and short-run dynamics of the Canadian dollar: an error correction modelling approach

Using quarterly data for 1972–2000, the paper examines the long-term and short-term movements of the US-Canadian exchange rate. It is found that the standard purchasing power parity condition fails to explain movements of the Canadian dollar. The explanatory power of the model increases significantly when resource commodity prices are added to the equation. Short-term movements in the Canadian dollar are influenced by the interest rate differential between Canada and the USA.     

Smokeless tobacco,smoking cessation and harm reduction: an economic analysis

Good estimates place ‘hard core’ smoking rates in the United States at approximately 25%, with little change over the decade of the 1990s. This paper examines the possibilities of ‘harm reduction’ with the use of smokeless tobacco. Specifically, using an econometric model we seek to determine whether an increase in the use of smokeless tobacco would lead to reduced smoking rates in the United States. Applying our model to the NHANES III (National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey) we find that the use of smokeless tobacco by an average U.S. male smoker would increase the average probability of smoke cessation by over 10%. Approximately 3 million additional ‘quits’ would result for 26 million smokers. Our study permits an examination of cessation by age groups and we find that males who use smokeless tobacco between 16 and 65 have a 10–14% probability of quitting but that the probability falls beyond age 66. Important implications for life extension and health costs would attend these results with, under conservative assumptions, life years saved approximating 2.16 million and health care cost-savings of about $3 billion per year.     

Optimal versus adequate level of international reserves: evidence for Turkey

The determination of international reserve balance for emerging economies is part of the efforts to strengthen the immunity of these economies to crises. However, there is still evidence on crises even for the countries with large foreign reserves. It has usually been experienced that the countries with greatest need for reserves economize more than others on their holdings since they might underestimate the cost of crisis. In this study, the official international reserves of Turkey are tested against optimality and adequacy. During 1988–2002, the actual reserves fell short of both the optimal and the adequate levels. They are only optimal when the expected cumulative contraction is about 5.2% of real GDP under crisis. However, early evidence from emerging economies and Turkey show that crises hit more heavily. Hence, it is found that the current financial structure in Turkey such as the absence of capital controls and a highly dollarized banking system necessitates more foreign reserves for preventing any future economic and/or financial shocks.     

Toward a Horizonal Theory of Justice: Efficiency,Equity, Rights and Capabilities in a Free Market Economy

The theory of planning horizons and their relation to pricing, conscience and learning has been explored in some detail in terms of efficiency attributes and ecological health (Jennings 2003, Journal of Economic Issues 39:365-373, 2005, 2007a, b, 2008a). This paper addresses the equity implications of planning horizons in terms of the social role and importance of justice, rights and capabilities in a free market economy. From my earlier work, cooperation—not competition—is seen as the means to longer and broader horizons in an efficiency frame, mitigating any alleged tradeoff against equity issues. The impact of longer horizons on fairness and justice in terms of intentions and outcomes along with rights and capabilities still remains unexplored. This paper reviews the normative aspects of planning horizons, showing how ethical and ecological conscience spreads with horizon effects, strengthening goals of fairness and the internalization of social effects. In this setting, capabilities and empowerment are enhanced by respect for human rights, as social conscience spreads through interhorizonal complementarities. The features of a long-horizon world differ from myopic contexts, specifically in the relation of efficiency to other goals. This paper examines that difference in terms of its equity aspects, with regard to social justice and the role of rights and capabilities in economic cultures.     

Increasing school quantity versus quality in kenya: impact on children from low-and high-income households

A common dilemma facing educational planners engaged in educational reform in developing countries is the allocation of sharply-reduced resources to the expansion of school facilities versus improvement of existing school facilities (say, by raising the teacher/pupil ratio). The empirical results presented in this paper for Kenya suggest that the two interventions have diametrically opposite effects on poor and nonpoor children. An expansion of school facilities increases the enrollment of children in the poorest expenditure quintiles but has no impact on the enrollment of children in the top quintiles. On the other hand, an improvement in the teacher-pupil ratio increases the enrollment rate of children in the top quintiles, and actually reduces the enrollment of children in the poor quintiles. These findings suggest that in situations where there is less than universal primary enrollment (UPE) and the government has set a time-bound goal of UPE, such as in Kenya, policies that serve to expand the number of school facilities may make more sense than interventions that increase the teacher-pupil ratio.