Macroeconomic implications of voucher privatization in a model with incomplete information

Voucher privatization implies a significant wealth transfer from state to private agents who, in turn, would increase consumption. This paper investigates the consequences of this wealth effect on the macroeconomic equilibrium in a high unemployment economy. The model builds on a two-stage sequential game between the government and private agents. We verify the existence of a pooling equilibrium in which private agents cannot guess whether a policy of fast privatization will be continued in the future or not. This configuration presents an endogenous probability of privatization slowdown; as a consequence, the wealth effect is moderated and the genuine fast privatizer government bears an “undue” credibility cost in terms of employment     

Prediction accuracy and sloppiness of log-periodic functions

We show that log-periodic power-law (LPPL) functions are intrinsically very hard to fit to time series. This comes from their sloppiness, the squared residuals depending very much on some combinations of parameters and very little on other ones. The time of singularity that is supposed to give an estimate of the day of the crash belongs to the latter category. We discuss in detail why and how the fitting procedure must take into account the sloppy nature of this kind of model. We then test the reliability of LPPLs on synthetic AR(1) data replicating the Hang Seng 1987 crash and show that even this case is borderline regarding the predictability of the divergence time. We finally argue that current methods used to estimate a probabilistic time window for the divergence time are likely to be over-optimistic.     

When Preventing Absenteeism Fuels Long-Sickness Leave: The Case of a Leading Operator for Local Transport Services

We examine the strategy to reduce sickness absences of transit drivers in one of the leading Multinational Operators for Local Transport Services in France. Absenteeism dramatically rose as a result of this strategy. Using observations and interviews at the corporate and field levels, and company data, we disentangle the mechanisms that led to this failure. In a context of strong constraints especially from local communities, the strategy based on underlining the costs of absences pushed local units to change their management practices. They focused on chasing short absences, promoted presenteeism and intensified pressure on workers rather than boosting prevention. Eventually, long-duration sickness leaves massively expanded.     

Representations of Australia in South Korean online news: a qualitative and quantitative approach utilizing Leximancer and Korean keywords in context

This article outlines original empirical research using a quantitative computer-assisted big data approach to survey and evaluate the representation of Australia in popular South Korean online news media sources. This is an exploratory content analysis of news reporting (in Korean and English) on Australia in key Korean digital news media providers and distributors over a six-month-period during which certain key events occurred that drew Korean news media attention to Australia. The research aims to address the fundamental question: what forms and patterns of representation of Australia are present in South Korean online news media? It is designed in large part to understand how Australia is present as a theme in Korean online news, and how this theme is contextualized by associated topics, such as trade, security, or tourism. The quantitative analysis is augmented using a qualitative method: a series of key informant interviews conducted with editors and journalists responsible for the production and prioritization of news. Further, it is interpreted by locating the research in the context of the Australia-South Korea relationship. We summarize the complexities that arise when analyzing large amounts of textual content, especially from two very different languages, discuss the opportunities that arise from mixed methods—by combining big data (breadth) with contextual analysis (depth) and offer suggestions for aspiring researchers.     

Modeling and forecasting of Brazilian reservoir inflows via dynamic linear models

This work focuses on developing a forecasting model for the water inflow at an hydroelectric plant’s reservoir for operations planning. The planning horizon is 5 years in monthly steps. Due to the complex behavior of the monthly inflow time series we use a Bayesian dynamic linear model that incorporates seasonal and autoregressive components. We also use climate variables like monthly precipitation, El Niño and other indices as predictor variables when relevant. The Brazilian power system has 140 hydroelectric plants. Based on geographical considerations, these plants are collated by basin and classified into 15 groups that correspond to the major river basins, in order to reduce the dimension of the problem. The model is then tested for these 15 groups. Each group will have a different forecasting model that can best describe its unique seasonality and characteristics. The results show that the forecasting approach taken in this paper produces substantially better predictions than the current model adopted in Brazil (see Maceira & Damazio, 2006), leading to superior operations planning.     

Market entry,privatization and bank performance in transition1

This paper examines how market entry and privatization have affected the margins and marginal costs of banks in the post‐communist transition. We estimate bank revenue and cost functions, allowing the estimated parameters to change over time. In the first sub‐period (1995–98), we find that privatized banks earned higher margins than other banks, while foreign start‐ups had lower marginal costs. In the third sub‐period (2002–2004), foreign banks remained low marginal cost service providers, while privatized domestic banks had the widest margins. Subtracting marginal costs from margins to calculate mark‐ups, an indication of demand for services, shows that initially privatized banks had the largest mark‐ups. However, by the third sub‐period, differences among private banks diminished. In comparison to private banks, state banks persistently under‐performed in controlling costs and attracting demand. Our evidence therefore indicates that foreign bank entry promoted lower costs and that privatization and market entry encouraged more demand for services.