Re-exploring the relationship between flexibility and the external environment

The organizational structure literature has long posited that increases in uncertainty should lead to organic (adaptable) structures [T. Burnes, G.M. Stalker, The Management of Innovation, Tavistock Publications, London, 1961]. Similarly, the operations management literature has focused on the importance of flexibility as a competitive weapon [e.g., [De Meyer et al., 1989] Strategic Manage. J. 10 (1989) 135], and as a response to environmental uncertainty [Manage. Sci. 33 (1987) 509; Manage. Sci. 39 (1993) 395]. However, our recent attempts to empirically validate a relationship between environmental uncertainty and operational flexibility in manufacturing plants have failed to show a significant relationship [J. Operations Manage. 3 (1999) 307]. The present research attempts to rectify these contradictory findings by replicating and extending the works of [Manage. Sci. 33 (1987) 509] as well as [J. Operations Manage. 3 (1999) 307]. The results find no support for the proposition that firms that respond to increased uncertainty with increased flexibility will experience increased performance.     

What Does it Take to Sell Environmental Policy? An Empirical Analysis of Referendum Data

We analyze the factors that influence the support for environmental policy proposals. Swiss referendum data show that proposals obtain more yes-votes if they do not restrict consumption possibilities directly, if they are endorsed by the largest business association, if environmental preferences are strong and economic conditions are favorable at the time of the referendum. Also, there are more pro-environmental votes in cantons with higher population density. On the other hand, yes-votes do not seem to depend on whether a proposal involves a tax or not.     

INDIVIDUAL MODERATORS OF THE TASK DESIGN, JOB ATTITUDE RELATIONSHIP: A NOTE ON MEASUREMENT

Many job design studies incorporate a direct measure of individual differences to test the contingency hypothesis of Hulin and Blood. This study examines two basic approaches to the measurement of potential moderators of the relationship between job design and job satisfaction. One method involved independent determination of a work value system, and predicted job satisfaction of subjects in an experimental study on job enlargement. The second method, strength of higher order needs, did not yield the same results as did the first. This difference shows that choice of an operational definition of individual differences affects research findings. For purposes of personnel selection or placement, the work values approach (method one) appears to be more useful than the need strength measure (method two).     

The product life cycle and sample representativity bias in price indexes

Official price indexes are usually calculated using matched samples of products. If products exhibit systematic price trends at different points in their life cycle then matched sample methods may introduce bias if the life cycle movement in the sample does not adequately reflect that in the population. This article explores the extent of these life cycle pricing effects and then examines the bias it can introduce in measured inflation. A large US supermarket scanner data set for six cities and six products over 12 years is used. Using hedonic methods we find that the life cycle component of price change is important across a range of products and cities. To explore the bias introduced by these movements, we use simulations that construct indexes with different sample update frequency. For indexes that are never completely resampled, we find an annual absolute bias of 0.88 and 0.59 percentage points depending upon whether we use the actual prices or prices imputed from our hedonic model. This compares with absolute biases of 0.34 and 0.10 percentage points for the corresponding cases for samples, which are re-selected annually. Thus our results provide strong support for more frequently updating index samples.     

Estimating demand systems when outcomes are correlated counts

We describe and employ a Bayesian posterior simulator for fitting a high-dimensional system of ordinal or count outcome equations. The model is then applied to describe the multiple site recreation demands of individual agents, and we argue that our approach provides advantages relative to existing methods commonly applied in this area. In particular, our model flexibly adjusts to match observed frequencies in trip outcomes, permits a flexible correlation pattern among the sites visited by individuals, and the posterior simulator for fitting this model is relatively easy to implement in practice. We also describe how the posterior simulations produced from the model can be used to conduct a variety of counterfactual experiments, including predicting behavioral changes and describing welfare implications resulting from shifts in exogenous demographic and site characteristics. We illustrate our method using data from the Iowa Lakes Project by modeling the visitation patterns of individuals to a set of twenty-nine large Iowa lakes. Consistent with previous findings in the literature, we see strong evidence that own and cross-price effects on trip demand are negative and positive, respectively, that higher income increases the likelihood of visiting most sites, and that a commonly used indicator of water quality, Secchi transparency, is positively correlated with the number of trips taken. In addition, the correlation structure among the errors reveals a complex pattern in which unobserved factors affecting trip demand are generally (though not strictly) positively correlated across sites. The flexibility and richness with which we are able to characterize the demand system provides a solid platform for counterfactual analysis, where we find significant behavioral and welfare effects from changes in site availability, water quality, and travel costs.     

Perverse committee appointments may foster divide and rule

A plurality-rule spatial committee can select an extreme decision if a bare minority of members prefer the opposite extreme decision: the majority who prefer a moderate decision are immobilised by internal divisions. Consequently, a nominator may appoint candidates with the opposite preference ordering so as to build up the bare minority. Our results may explain why Disraeli extended the franchise to skilled male workers in 1867 against centrist opposition; and why an electorate whose preferences are not polarized may have to choose between extremist candidates.     

Deadline Effects and Inefficient Delay in Bargaining with Endogenous Commitment

Bilateral (sequential) negotiators delay agreements until a deadline if a player that rejects an offer is subsequently committed not to accept any poorer proposal, and if the common discount factor is close enough to one. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C7, C78, J52.     

投行为何热盼IPO

“卖债券，买债券。我睡觉时还想着债券销售的事儿，居然说起了梦话。”笔者一位任职于某证券公司债券销售交易部的朋友在闲聊时谈到了他现在工作繁忙的情形，都有些不好意思。     

The emergence of English commercial law: Analysis inspired by the Ottoman experience

Thirteenth-century England was a commercial backwater whose trade was dominated by foreigners. To accommodate and encourage foreign merchants, England modified its legal system by creating legal institutions that were available to both domestic and foreign traders. Among the most important of these institutions were streamlined debt collection procedures and mixed juries composed of both Englishmen and foreigners. By introducing institutions that treated locals and foreigners equally, England created a level playing field that enabled English merchants to become increasingly prominent in the later Middle Ages. England's ability to modernize its law was facilitated by the secular nature of English law, the representation of merchants in Parliament, and legal pluralism. Medieval England contrasts sharply with the early modern Ottoman Empire. The latter created special institutions for foreign merchants, which eventually put Ottoman Muslims at a competitive disadvantage.