Estimating demand systems when outcomes are correlated counts

We describe and employ a Bayesian posterior simulator for fitting a high-dimensional system of ordinal or count outcome equations. The model is then applied to describe the multiple site recreation demands of individual agents, and we argue that our approach provides advantages relative to existing methods commonly applied in this area. In particular, our model flexibly adjusts to match observed frequencies in trip outcomes, permits a flexible correlation pattern among the sites visited by individuals, and the posterior simulator for fitting this model is relatively easy to implement in practice. We also describe how the posterior simulations produced from the model can be used to conduct a variety of counterfactual experiments, including predicting behavioral changes and describing welfare implications resulting from shifts in exogenous demographic and site characteristics. We illustrate our method using data from the Iowa Lakes Project by modeling the visitation patterns of individuals to a set of twenty-nine large Iowa lakes. Consistent with previous findings in the literature, we see strong evidence that own and cross-price effects on trip demand are negative and positive, respectively, that higher income increases the likelihood of visiting most sites, and that a commonly used indicator of water quality, Secchi transparency, is positively correlated with the number of trips taken. In addition, the correlation structure among the errors reveals a complex pattern in which unobserved factors affecting trip demand are generally (though not strictly) positively correlated across sites. The flexibility and richness with which we are able to characterize the demand system provides a solid platform for counterfactual analysis, where we find significant behavioral and welfare effects from changes in site availability, water quality, and travel costs.     

Perverse committee appointments may foster divide and rule

A plurality-rule spatial committee can select an extreme decision if a bare minority of members prefer the opposite extreme decision: the majority who prefer a moderate decision are immobilised by internal divisions. Consequently, a nominator may appoint candidates with the opposite preference ordering so as to build up the bare minority. Our results may explain why Disraeli extended the franchise to skilled male workers in 1867 against centrist opposition; and why an electorate whose preferences are not polarized may have to choose between extremist candidates.     

Deadline Effects and Inefficient Delay in Bargaining with Endogenous Commitment

Bilateral (sequential) negotiators delay agreements until a deadline if a player that rejects an offer is subsequently committed not to accept any poorer proposal, and if the common discount factor is close enough to one. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C7, C78, J52.     

投行为何热盼IPO

“卖债券，买债券。我睡觉时还想着债券销售的事儿，居然说起了梦话。”笔者一位任职于某证券公司债券销售交易部的朋友在闲聊时谈到了他现在工作繁忙的情形，都有些不好意思。     

The emergence of English commercial law: Analysis inspired by the Ottoman experience

Thirteenth-century England was a commercial backwater whose trade was dominated by foreigners. To accommodate and encourage foreign merchants, England modified its legal system by creating legal institutions that were available to both domestic and foreign traders. Among the most important of these institutions were streamlined debt collection procedures and mixed juries composed of both Englishmen and foreigners. By introducing institutions that treated locals and foreigners equally, England created a level playing field that enabled English merchants to become increasingly prominent in the later Middle Ages. England's ability to modernize its law was facilitated by the secular nature of English law, the representation of merchants in Parliament, and legal pluralism. Medieval England contrasts sharply with the early modern Ottoman Empire. The latter created special institutions for foreign merchants, which eventually put Ottoman Muslims at a competitive disadvantage.     

Resource allocation and productivity of cereal state farms in Ethiopia

Using a translog production function, cereal production on state farms in Ethiopia between 1980 and 1985 was analyzed. The farms were found to be operating at constant returns to scale. Manual labor was under-utilized, while machinery and other modern inputs were over-utilized. Elasticities of substitution between labor and these over-utilized inputs were low.     

LOCATION OF HIGH TECHNOLOGY INDUSTRIES AND REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT – THE ISRAELI CASE

This paper reviews and empirically examines the effectiveness of the Israeli government's declared policy to induce the location of high technology industries in developing regions. The first section of the paper reviews the literature on high technology industry location. The second section presents the findings from the analyses of a sample of 53 high technology Israeli firms in regard to their critical locational determinants. The findings corroborate the results reported in other similar studies. High technology industries, primarily those engaged in research and development, appear to favor the large urban concentrations, where agglomeration economies, large pools of skilled workers and high quality educational and cultural facilities exist. High technology firms which choose to locate in peripheral regions engage primarily in production activities and employ larger proportions of unskilled and semi-skilled labor. The average size of these firms is greater than their counterparts, firms located in and around urban concentrations.     

An archaeological examination of ethnic differences in body care rituals

Body care rituals as expressions of cultural heritage passed intergenerationally through childhood socialization were expected to show variation across income matched groups from two ethnic origins (Anglos and Mexican-Americans). The contents of 1595 collections of household refuse were coded to determine level of usage of products used in body care rituals by two income groups of Hispanics and two income-matched groups of Anglos. Findings regarding group differences in patterns of usage of personal cleansers, household cleansers, oral hygiene products, odor fighters, hair care products, skin care products, cosmetics, feminine protection products, over-the-counter drugs, and aspirin are reported. These findings are interpreted using several alternative theoretical perspectives including body cathexis, status, and role theory, attempts to capture the ‘Good Life,’ pride in the body, and cultural heritage. Propositions for future research are suggested.     

Did nordic countries recognize the gathering storm of World War II? Evidence from the bond markets

This paper analyzes and compares different ways of assessing how people perceived impending threats of war in the past. Conventional Nordic historiography of World War II claims there were few, if any, people in the Nordic countries who perceived a significantly increased threat of war between 1938 and early 1940. At the same time, historical methods face problems when it comes to capturing the often tacitly held beliefs of a large number of people in the past. In this paper, we analyze these assessments by looking at sudden shifts in sovereign debt yields and spreads in the Nordic bond markets at that time. Our results suggest that Nordic contemporaries indeed perceived significant war risk increases around the time of major war-related geopolitical events. While these findings question some—but not all—of standard Nordic World War II historiography, they also demonstrate the value of analyzing historical market prices to reassess the often tacitly held views and opinions of large groups of people in the past.