A test of the rational expectations hypothesis using data from a natural experiment

Data on contestants’ choices in Italian Game Show Affari Tuoi are analysed in a way that separates the effect of risk attitude (preferences) from that of beliefs concerning the amount of money that will be offered to contestants in future rounds. This separate identification is possible by virtue of the fact that, at a certain stage of the game, beliefs are not relevant, and risk attitude is the sole determinant of choice. The rational expectations hypothesis is tested by comparing the estimated belief function with the ‘true’ offer function which is estimated extraneously using data on offers actually made to contestants. We find a close correspondence, leading us to accept the rational expectations hypothesis. The importance of belief formation is confirmed by the estimation of a mixture model which establishes that the vast majority of contestants are forward looking as opposed to myopic.     

Socially responsible and conventional investment funds: performance comparison and the global financial crisis

We investigate the performance of socially responsible funds (SRFs) and conventional funds (CFs) in different market (geographical area and class size) segments during the period 1992–2012. From an unbalanced sample of more than 22 000 funds, we define a matched sample using a beta-distance measure to match any SRF with the ‘nearest neighbour’ CF in terms of sensitivity to risk factors. Using this matching approach and a recursive analysis, we identify several switch points in the lead/lag relationship between the two investment styles over time in different market segments. A relevant finding of our analysis is that SRFs played an ‘insurance role’ outperforming CFs during the 2007 global financial crisis.     

Financial development and growth: An empirical analysis

Over the last two decades several countries experienced currency crises. These were characterized both by a huge disruption of economic activity and an extreme speed of diffusion within countries. The financial turmoil happened in a period of very high degree of international financial integration. As a result financial liberalization was associated with greater incidence of crises and this brought an intense debate in both academic and policy circles about the consequences of free capital movements.     

Das neue Medien-Menü: Fernsehen und WWW als funktionale Alternativen?

As new media technologies develop and become established, the supply of media services expands. Along with this development, the question arises of how this affects traditional media. As other new media have, the Internet, too, has triggered debates about the future of the «old» media. This paper discusses whether the proliferation of the World Wide Web can have effects on television use. To do this, both relevant theoretical approaches and the state of empirical research are introduced and discussed. Present research results do not consider the systematic difference between cognitive schemata concerning media use as they are reproduced in face-to-face interviews on the one hand, and actual media use on the other. An innovative research concept is developed that takes this critique into account and differentiates between gratification expectations and situational gratifications sought and obtained. As regards gratification expectations, television is superior to the World Wide Web. It is more powerful on all gratification dimensions. Considering actual use, though, the World Wide Web has already outstripped television on some of the dimensions. It is used more often to satisfy specific needs. Thus, cognitive schemata of media use lag behind the actual changes in every day life.     

ENDOGENOUS PROTECTION IN A TRADE LIBERALIZING ECONOMY: THE CASE OF SOUTH AFRICA

This article aims to establish the changes that occurred in the institutional structures governing trade policy in South Africa during the period 1990–1998. It also examines the forces that influenced the application of tariff policy by the major tariff-setting bodies by applying various theories of endogenous protection to their decisions. Using firm-level data on applications made to the Board on Tariffs and Trade, the study finds that when estimating a probit model, employment considerations rather than capital invested influenced the board's decisions to grant protection. In addition, the board is found to have granted protection even in the face of tariff lines having been bound under the Uruguay Round. The article argues that this should not be interpreted as a reversal of the trade liberalization but rather as an attempt by the board to cushion firms from the acceleration in the tariff rationalization process that occurred after the GATT offer. Finally, it is suggested that the board's response to changes in import penetration ratios between industries that were considered organized provides prima facie evidence of the superior lobbying ability of such industries.     

Knowledge,innovation, and control towards accountability: a comparative case study

This paper deepens the countervailing relationship between control and innovation in highly innovative networks. It adopts a middle range theory perspective [Broadbent and Laughlin, 2013. Accounting Control and Controlling Accounting: Interdisciplinary and Critical Perspectives. 1st ed. Bingley: Emerald Group] integrated with the quintuple helix model (Carayannis and Campbell, 2010. “Triple Helix, Quadruple Helix and Quintuple Helix and How Do Knowledge, Innovation and the Environment Relate To Each Other?.” International Journal of Social Ecology and Sustainable Development 1 (1): 41–69] to explore how control and innovation interact and shape each other in the contexts of high complexity and intensive knowledge creation, towards the satisfaction of accountability demands by stakeholders. The research relies upon two case studies and reveals what are the factors positively shaping the interaction between innovation and control towards greater accountability. We document that successful changes are facilitated by the implementation of adequate and innovative informal control devices favouring collaborative relationships, reinforcing innovation and shared knowledge and capabilities within the organisation. The findings are relevant to all complex settings involved in multifaceted processes of producing knowledge and innovation.     

Risk and return: Long-run relations,fractional cointegration,and return predictability

Univariate dependencies in market volatility, both objective and risk neutral, are best described by long-memory fractionally integrated processes. Meanwhile, the ex post difference, or the variance swap payoff reflecting the reward for bearing volatility risk, displays far less persistent dynamics. Using intraday data for the Standard & Poor's 500 and the volatility index (VIX), coupled with frequency domain methods, we separate the series into various components. We find that the coherence between volatility and the volatility-risk reward is the strongest at long-run frequencies. Our results are consistent with generalized long-run risk models and help explain why classical efforts of establishing a naïve return-volatility relation fail. We also estimate a fractionally cointegrated vector autoregression (CFVAR). The model-implied long-run equilibrium relation between the two variance variables results in nontrivial return predictability over interdaily and monthly horizons, supporting the idea that the cointegrating relation between the two variance measures proxies for the economic uncertainty rewarded by the market.     

Indirect Taxation and Gender Equity: Evidence from South Africa

Abstract

This study adds to the growing literature on the distributional effects of indirect or consumption taxes in developing countries by exploring whether these taxes have differential gender outcomes. Using data from Statistics South Africa's 2000 Income and Expenditure Survey, the study investigates differences in tax incidence between “female-type” and “male-type” households, classified according to their demographic and economic attributes. The results suggest that zero-rating a well-targeted selection of basic foodstuffs and fuel for household use is important in protecting female-type households, especially those in the lowest quintiles and with children, from bearing an otherwise disproportionate share of the tax burden. In contrast, high taxes on alcohol, tobacco, and fuel for private transport result in a larger incidence on male-type households. The study also suggests ways in which the indirect tax structure could be refined to further reduce the large gender (and income) inequities that exist in South Africa.     

Social Capital and Women’s Labor Force Participation in Chile

ABSTRACT

Using data from Chile, this study analyzes the relationship between different forms of social capital and women’s labor force participation, accounting for both endogeneity problems and differences among women of different economic strata. First, the results suggest that only some types of social capital are relevant for labor force participation: namely, networks with weaker yet far-reaching connections, including higher-status individuals. There are neither empirical nor theoretical reasons to believe that women have better access to such networks than men. Second, this type of social capital is only relevant for the economic integration of the richest women, failing to increase labor force participation among women of the other 80 percent of households. Thus, this study concludes that policies targeted at women’s economic integration based on the presumption that women have more social capital than men are deeply flawed.     

Productivity Dispersion and its Determinants: The Role of Import Penetration

The new heterogeneous firm models in international economics predict a negative impact of trade openness on within-sector productivity disparities, due to a restructuring process leading to a reallocation of resources towards more efficient firms and the exit of less productive ones. I test this hypothesis for the Italian manufacturing sectors making use of panel data models. I investigate the existence of heterogeneous effects in terms of origin of imports and I account for a geographical dimension computing the productivity dispersion indicator by sector and regional macro-area. The analysis is implemented within a comprehensive framework controlling for other potential determinants, such as technological factors and domestic competition. My findings show that competitive pressure from low income countries reduces the productivity heterogeneity across firms. On the contrary, a positive impact is detected for the increased availability of intermediates originating from developed countries.