Is there adaptation to predictable climate change along the temperature-conflict nexus? Evidence from the El Niño Southern Oscillation

A growing body of research connects short-run deviations in weather with violence. Less well understood is the scope for agents to adapt to medium and longer-run climate fluctuations. We follow existing research and use the existing climactic forces of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to analyse climate change – exploiting the fact that in 1989 published forecasts of these fluctuations became available. In a generalized differences framework, we contrast the impact of ENSO in affected areas of the globe relative to unaffected areas before and after 1989, finding no robust evidence that adaptation efforts are successfully mitigating conflict or civil unrest occurring as a result of these fluctuations.     

Beyond Early Warning Indicators: High School Dropout and Machine Learning

This paper combines machine learning with economic theory in order to analyse high school dropout. It provides an algorithm to predict which students are going to drop out of high school by relying only on information from 9th grade. This analysis emphasizes that using a parsimonious early warning system – as implemented in many schools – leads to poor results. It shows that schools can obtain more precise predictions by exploiting the available high‐dimensional data jointly with machine learning tools such as Support Vector Machine, Boosted Regression and Post‐LASSO. Goodness‐of‐fit criteria are selected based on the context and the underlying theoretical framework: model parameters are calibrated by taking into account the policy goal – minimizing the expected dropout rate ‐ and the school budget constraint. Finally, this study verifies the existence of heterogeneity through unsupervised machine learning by dividing students at risk of dropping out into different clusters.     

Did Italy Need More Labour Flexibility?

The dramatic impact of the 2008 crisis on the Italian economy led to policy responses including structural reforms and labour market liberalisation to reverse the worrisome output and employment trends. A key action by the Italian government, the evocatively named Jobs Act of 2014, has deeply changed Italian industrial relations. The Jobs Act has introduced a new contract type that substantially limits workers’ rights to reinstatement in case of fi rms invalidly fi ring them. This article frames the Jobs Act within the overall liberalisation process begun in Italy in the 1990s, providing an initial evaluation of its impacts. Using detailed data sources, we show that the expected boost in employment cannot be detected, the share of temporary contracts over open-ended ones has increased and the number of part-time contracts has risen. This evidence suggests that the Jobs Act is failing to achieve its main goals.     

Collateral or utility penalties?

In a two-period economy with incomplete markets and possibility of default we consider the two classical ways of enforcing the honoring of financial commitments: by using utility penalties and by using collateral requirements that borrowers have to fulfill. First, we prove that any equilibrium in an economy with collateral requirements is also an equilibrium in a non-collateralized economy where each agent is penalized in their utility if his or her delivery rate is lower than the payment rate of the financial market. Second, we prove the converse: any equilibrium in an economy with utility penalties is also an equilibrium in a collateralized economy. For this to be true, the payoff function and initial endowments of the agents must be modified in a quite natural way. Finally, we prove that the equilibrium in the economy with collateral requirements attains the same welfare as in the new economy with utility penalties.     

The effects of public infrastructure on the cost structure of Spanish industries

This paper examines the impact of public infrastructures on the performance of Spanish private business at a disaggregated industry level. We use duality theory to recover the productivity effects of public capital by calculating the cost saving effects that are associated to public services. Using a translog cost function we present panel estimates for 14 Spanish industries during the period 1980–1991. Our results strongly suggest that public capital formation can be considered to be an instrument to improve competitiveness by reducing production costs. However, the results also indicate that there is a technologically induced labor saving effect through higher public investment. Furthermore, our estimates suggest that a distinction among industries is of importance because the effects of public infrastructures vary across industries considerably.     

Is there a U-shaped relation between competition and investment?

We consider a two-stage game with cost-reducing investments followed by a linear differentiated Cournot duopoly. With competition inversely parameterized by the extent of product differentiation, investment in the subgame perfect equilibrium is typically minimal for intermediate levels of competition. Laboratory experiments partly confirm the U-shape in a reduced one-stage version of the game. In the two-stage version, there is no evidence for positive effects of moving from intermediate to intense competition.     

Voting over type and generosity of a pension system when some individuals are myopic

This paper studies the determination through majority voting of a pension scheme when society consists of far-sighted and myopic individuals. All individuals have the same basic preferences but myopics tend to adopt a short-term view (instant gratification) when dealing with retirement saving and labor supply. Consequently, they will find themselves with low consumption after retirement and regret their insufficient savings decisions. Henceforth, when voting they tend to commit themselves into forced saving. We consider a pension scheme that is characterized by two parameters: the payroll tax rate (that determines the size or generosity of the system) and the “Bismarckian factor” that determines its redistributiveness. Individuals vote sequentially. We examine how the introduction of myopic agents affects the generosity and the redistributiveness of the pension system. Our main result is that a flat pension system is always chosen when all individuals are of one kind (all far-sighted or all myopic), while a less redistributive system may be chosen if society is composed of both myopic and far-sighted agents. Furthermore, while myopic individuals tend to prefer larger payroll taxes than their far-sighted counterparts, the generosity of the system does not always increase with the proportion of myopics.     

Backward participation in global value chains and exchange rate driven adjustments of Swiss exports

This paper examines the effect of exchange rate movements on export volume, export revenues and propensity to export taking into account the extent of foreign value added content of exports (“backward integration”) in global value chains (GVCs). Using both product-level and firm-level panel data, our results suggest that Swiss exports (intensive margin) and the export probability (extensive margin) are negatively affected by a currency appreciation. However, this adverse effect is mitigated in sectors and firms that are more integrated in GVCs, which could be explained by the “natural hedging” of exchange rate movements. Our findings are robust to the use of different measures of natural hedging and GVC integration and also hold across various specifications and estimation methods that control for sample selection, firm heterogeneity, heteroskedastic errors and persistence in export behavior. The dynamic specifications also reveal that export hysteresis driven by a currency appreciation is a concern particularly for firms that are not established in export markets.     

Disability in Italian households: income,poverty and labour market participation

This article studies the economic effects of disabled members on Italian households, with the aim of identifying a suitable target group for welfare policies. Survey of Households Income and Wealth data for the year 2000 is used. Preliminary results show significant differences in levels of income and poverty diffusion to the detriment of households with disabled members. We propose an exogenous explanation: the replacement ratio between disability benefits and expected labour income shows that disability benefits do not compensate the potential incomes of the disabled person and of the possible carer, except in households with severe socioeconomic disadvantages. We also propose an endogenous explanation: applying a logit model we show that the labour market participation of the possible carer is reduced in households with disabled persons. In order to increase the income of the households with disabled members, policy recommendations include the provision of care services and structural policies to improve employment, income and educational opportunities for households at greatest disadvantage.