The importance of deep integration in preferential trade agreements: the case of a successfully implemented Ukraine–Turkey free trade agreement

Review of World Economics - We construct a 45-sector model of Ukraine with Turkey and seven other regions to estimate the impacts on Ukraine of effectively implementing the deep Free Trade...     

Model-free portfolio theory: A rough path approach

Based on a rough path foundation, we develop a model-free approach to stochastic portfolio theory (SPT). Our approach allows to handle significantly more general portfolios compared to previous model-free approaches based on Föllmer integration. Without the assumption of any underlying probabilistic model, we prove a pathwise formula for the relative wealth process, which reduces in the special case of functionally generated portfolios to a pathwise version of the so-called master formula of classical SPT. We show that the appropriately scaled asymptotic growth rate of a far reaching generalization of Cover's universal portfolio based on controlled paths coincides with that of the best retrospectively chosen portfolio within this class. We provide several novel results concerning rough integration, and highlight the advantages of the rough path approach by showing that (nonfunctionally generated) log-optimal portfolios in an ergodic Itô diffusion setting have the same asymptotic growth rate as Cover's universal portfolio and the best retrospectively chosen one.     

NATO/US false-flag attacks in Europe

False flag operations are acts of deception carried out by government officials to blame other countries or political groups for an attack against the nation with the aim of stirring up a desire for retribution against the supposed perpetrator. Since the effectiveness of a false-flag operation depends on preventing the truth from becoming widely known, it is impossible to know how often such operations have been carried out. Nevertheless, some historical events have been revealed in time, so we can better understand how they operate. The focus here is on false-flag operations in Western Europe and Turkey, carried out as part of the Gladio program during the Cold War under the supervision of the CIA. In each case, the CIA persuaded NATO members to recruit right-wing operatives to engage in terrorist actions and then blame the resulting deaths on left-wing groups, mostly communists. In this way, the United States used deception and terror to prevent communists from gaining power in Europe after World War II.     

The impact of government intervention on the stabilization of domestic financial markets and on U.S. banks’ asset composition

The 2007–2009 financial crisis that evolved from various factors including the housing boom, aggressive lending activity, financial innovation, and increased access to money and capital markets prompted unprecedented U.S. government intervention in the financial sector. We examine changes in banks’ balance sheet composition associated with U.S. government intervention during the crisis. We find that the initial round of quantitative easing positively impacts bank liquidity across all bank samples. Our results show a positive impact of repurchase agreement market rates on bank liquidity for small and medium banks. We conclude that banks have become more liquid in the post-crisis period, especially the larger banks (large and money center banks). We show that real estate loan portfolio exposures have reverted to pre-crisis levels for money center banks and remained flat for all other bank samples.     

The evolution of scale economies in US banking

Continued consolidation of the US banking industry and a general increase in the size of banks have prompted some policymakers to consider policies that discourage banks from getting larger, including explicit caps on bank size. However, limits on the size of banks could entail economic costs if they prevent banks from achieving economies of scale. This paper presents new estimates of returns to scale for US banks based on nonparametric, local‐linear estimation of bank cost, revenue, and profit functions. We report estimates for both 2006 and 2015 to compare returns to scale some 7 years after the financial crisis and 5 years after enactment of the Dodd–Frank Act with returns to scale before the crisis. We find that a high percentage of banks faced increasing returns to scale in cost in both years, including most of the 10 largest bank holding companies. Also, while returns to scale in revenue and profit vary more across banks, we find evidence that the largest four banks operate under increasing returns to scale.     

Systemic justice and burnout: A multilevel model

With the aim of extending organisational justice research to embrace significant and enduring aspects of the workplace context, this study examines organisational culture and human resource management (HRM) as constitutive dimensions of systemic justice and relates them to employee health. Bridging organisational justice, HRM, organisational culture, and occupational health research, we advance and test a multilevel model relating systemic justice to burnout. Data collected from 60 organisations; 89 employee groups; and 1,976 employees provide support for the hypothesised relationships between justice‐oriented culture, in terms of organisational values and group culture, and justice‐oriented HRM. In turn, justice‐oriented HRM related directly to employee burnout and indirectly through employee perceived job control and supervisor social support.     

Does the ‘non-traditional expatriate’ exist? A critical exploration of new expatriation categories

Non-Traditional Expatriates (NTEs) are rapidly increasing in the global talent pool, but remains a ‘black-box’ in the Expatriate Management and Global Mobility literatures. This article advances the conceptualisation of NTEs, due to the nascent research field is lacking construct clarity in terms of the meaning of the term as well as an operationalised conceptual framework. Five underlying assumptions in the scarce extant literature are identified and discussed, as a means to responding to the following research questions: (i) how credible is the NTE term as an expatriation typology?; and (ii) how can the conceptual framework of NTEs be operationalised? If these key issues remain unsolved, there is a risk of establishing flawed research design which can negatively affect researchers’ credibility when providing policy advice on global staffing and talent management to international managers and Multinational Enterprises (MNEs). This conceptual article draws upon key social anthropological and sociological theories, and proposes a relational research design for investigating NTEs, as well as propositions for future research.     

The Merits of Dual Pricing of Russian Natural Gas

Our analysis reveals that, from Russia's perspective, there is no economic rationale to unify the price of natural gas it sells domestically and in Europe. We argue that pipelines allow Gazprom to segment the Russian market from the European (including Turkey) market and that Russia has market power in the European market. If Russia were to fail to exploit this market power in its European market, by selling its natural gas to Europe at only full long‐run marginal cost plus transportation costs, Russia would lose between $5 billion and $7.5 billion per year (almost two per cent of its GDP). If, instead, Russia were to raise its domestic prices to the prices it charges in Europe, Russian industry would incur very large investment adjustment and unemployment costs in the short run – adjustment costs that cannot be justified on the basis of comparative advantage. We estimate that the efficient world price would be achieved if Gazprom were to employ its optimal ‘two‐part tariff’. The optimal two‐part tariff would double Gazprom's annual profits in Europe, but it involves significant long‐term risks for Gazprom of lost market share.     

Divergent and Convergent Idea Generation in Teams: A Comparison of Computer-Mediated and Face-to-Face Communication

Many tasks and decisions in business, including management consulting, are performed in group settings. Computer-mediated communication (CMC) tools (e.g., Lotus Notes) are increasingly being used by businesses to support teams in a variety of settings. Considerable research in information systems has demonstrated the advantages of electronic brainstorming (EBS) for generic tasks involving only divergent thinking. However, it is unclear whether the benefits of CMC extend to tasks that require both divergent and convergent processes. Per task–technology fit theory (TTF) (Zigurs and Buckland 1998), the use of computer-based group communication support tools, including chat systems in wide-spread use today, may be less effective for convergent processes than for divergent processes. This study experimentally compares the performance of computer-mediated and face-to-face (FTF) teams on tasks requiring both divergent and convergent processes. Consistent with theoretical predictions, the results revealed that computer-mediated teams outperformed FTF teams in the divergent aspects of the tasks, while FTF teams outperformed computer-mediated teams in the convergent aspects of the tasks.     

Modeling social interactions: Identification, empirical methods and policy implications

Social interactions occur when agents in a network affect other agents’ choices directly, as opposed to via the intermediation of markets. The study of such interactions and the resultant outcomes has long been an area of interest across a wide variety of social sciences. With the advent of electronic media that facilitate and record such interactions, this interest has grown sharply in the business world as well. In this paper, we provide a brief summary of what is known so far, discuss the main challenges for researchers interested in this area, and provide a common vocabulary that will hopefully engender future (cross disciplinary) research. The paper considers the challenges of distinguishing actual causal social interactions from other phenomena that may lead to a false inference of causality. Further, we distinguish between two broadly defined types of social interactions that relate to how strongly interactions spread through a network. We also provide a very selective review of how insights from other disciplines can improve and inform modeling choices. Finally, we discuss how models of social interaction can be used to provide guidelines for marketing policy and conclude with thoughts on future research directions.