An algebraic theory of multi-product decisions

Summary. We exploit the existence of matrix group symmetries on a production possibility set to identify group symmetries on the profit function. The groups are isomorphic, and provide a pre-ordering on firm preferences over prices. Together with additional structure on the technology, symmetries generate comparative statics on price responses. Linear and other invariances place bounds on firm choice vectors. Reflection group asymmetries on the feasible choice set also support welfare rankings over prices. The methods are adapted to study consumer decisions.Received: 12 August 2002, Revised: 30 January 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D11, D21, C60, L23. Correspondence to: David A. Hennessy     

Intention and Stochastic Outcomes: An Experimental study

Do people care about intentions – even when good intentions do not produce good results? In our experiments we find that rates of punishment and reward react strongly to intentions (the wage a firm decides to pay) and more modestly to distributional outcomes (the higher or lower wage actually received including the stochastic component). For example, workers who end up receiving medium wages respond much more positively when this resulted from the firm offering a high wage but bad luck lowered the worker's pay than when this resulted from the firm offering a low wage and good luck raised the pay.     

Alternative hypotheses and the volume of trade: the gravity equation and the extent of specialization

Abstract.  We examine why the gravity equation works and the implications for its use. First, we demonstrate that the gravity equation as a statistical relationship can be generated from a model with incomplete specialization and trade costs. Second, we analyse the predominance of zero bilateral trade values as a 'puzzle' broadly inconsistent with the complete specialization models typically used to derive the gravity equation, but consistent with the alternative hypothesis of incomplete specialization. Third, we demonstrate that the explanation for why the gravity equation works has considerable relevance for how the gravity equation is interpreted and used and how we view bilateral trade.     

Distributional dynamics following a technological revolution

In this paper we explore the link between technological change and the dynamics of employment, production, and the distribution of earnings. Technological change not only advances society's collective capability but also changes the relative productivities of its members. The latter effect establishes the likely winners and losers from advances in productive capabilities, provides a mechanism that can generate cyclical fluctuations in output as well as employment, and determines the evolution of the earnings distribution.
Dynamique de la répartition à la suite d'une révolution technologique . Ce mémoire examine le lien entre le changement technologique et la dynamique de l'emploi, de la production et de la répartition des revenus. Le changement technologique n'augmente pas seulement la capacité collective d'une société mais modifie aussi les productivités relatives de ses membres. Ce dernier effet crée des gagnants et des perdants, déclenche un mécanisme qui peut générer des fluctuations cycliques tant dans le niveau de production que dans celui de l'emploi, et détermine l'évolution de la répartition des revenus.     

Sources of fluctuations in hours worked for Canada,Germany, Japan and the U.S.: a sign restriction VAR approach

This study empirically examines the sources of fluctuations in hours worked in Canada, Germany, Japan and the U.S. It is particularly motivated by Galí’s (1999) VAR study, which demonstrates that a positive technology shock reduces hours worked, at least in the short run. However, in the present study, a technology shock is identified without recourse to Galí’s long-run restriction, which has been subject to active controversy. Furthermore, this study uncovers other important sources of fluctuations in hours worked to reflect the concern, raised by numerous studies, that technology shocks leave most variations in hours worked unexplained. Specifically, there are six shocks underlying our model, and they are identified using a set of sign restrictions. The empirical results confirm that in all four countries, a positive technology shock significantly reduces hours worked. This technology shock, along with labor supply and demand shocks, accounts for most of the short-term variations in hours worked. As the forecasting horizon increases, technology and demand shocks become less important, whereas labor supply shocks contribute to explaining the bulk of long-run variations in hours worked. Finally, the empirical relevance of Galí’s long-run identification restriction is tested and the results are related to those obtained using the sign restriction model.     

Price Effects of Across-State Regulation of U.S. Electric Utilities

Investor-owned utilities (IOUs)serving multiple states are subject to multiple publicservice (utility) commission (PSC) regulation. Focusing on relative rates of an IOU across PSCsisolates regulatory effects. This analysis examines38 such multistate IOUs from 1995. For theresidential-commercial customer comparison, electedPSC commissioners, Republican-appointed commissioners,PSC jurisdiction over municipally-owned utilities (anindirect IOU competitor), and IOU home-state statusare associated with a higher relative rate, whereasmore PSC employees per capita and population densityare associated with a lower relative rate. Thecommercial-industrial comparison results are largelyreversed, but are similarly robust.     

Do brain drain and poverty result from coordination failures?

The bidirectional causal links between high-skilled emigration and poverty can give rise to multiple equilibria and coordination failures. Two countries sharing identical characteristics may end up in either a “low poverty-low brain drain” equilibrium or in a “high poverty-high brain drain” equilibrium. In this paper, we build a model which endogenizes high-skilled emigration and economic performances in order to derive the conditions under which multiplicity occurs. After identifying country-specific parameters, we find that in the majority of developing countries, the best equilibrium is selected and that the observed brain drain is inevitable. In 22 small developing countries however, the worse equilibrium prevails, implying that poverty and brain drain are increased by coordination failure. These countries require appropriate development policies, such as a temporary subsidization of the repatriation of their high-skilled expatriates. Our results are robust to the inclusion of a brain gain mechanism.     

Production and the Real Rate of Interest: A Sample Path Equilibrium

This paper examines a multiperiod production economy where investors do not observe the realizations of productivity factors or security expected returns. Unlike previous work, which expresses the equilibrium conditions as functions of unobservable (to both real-world investors and empiricists) moments of the distributions of returns, we express the equilibrium real rate as a function of the observable sample paths of realizations of returns. We provide a framework for empirically testing this and other asset pricing models without outside-the-model econometric assumptions needed for producing the unobservable moments of returns. We construct versions of the restrictions for any time interval between observations.