The Effectiveness of Vehicle Safety Inspections: An Analysis Using Panel Data

We examined the effectiveness of state automobile safety inspections and present new evidence from a panel of the 50 states for the years 1981-1993. Our approach incorporated several innovations over previous studies of safety inspections; most significantly, we estimated a fixed-effects model that incorporated state-specific shifts in casualty rates. We found no evidence that inspections significantly reduce fatality or injury rates. Our study also provides evidence on the effects of speed limits, seat belts, and Peltzman's offsetting behavior hypothesis.     

A Model of Supplier Responses to Just-In-Time Delivery Requirements

When buyers provide incentives for suppliers to deliver just-in-time, suppliers can respond by choosing to hold additional inventory, reducing the variance of flow time to facilitate just-in-time production, or both. A model characterizing the supplier's optimal response to incentives for JIT delivery is presented. The model shows a situation where the optimal action of the supplier is to hold more inventory. When incentives for on-time delivery are increased, the supplier responds by decreasing the variance of flow time and by increasing the lead time allowance. However, the lead time allowance increases more quickly than the variance is reduced, resulting. in a net increase in the amount of inventory that must be held by the supplier. The result is that inventory is pushed upstream. This paper does not suggest that inventory is always pushed upstream in JIT purchasing. Rather, it provides a counter-example to those who presume that holding more inventory is always a non-optimal response to buyer's requests for JIT delivery.     

Beer Taxation and Alcohol-Related Traffic Fatalities

Most studies of alcohol-related traffic fatalities find beer taxes to be an important policy variable. This is surprising since beer taxes only have a small impact on consumption and heavy drinkers are the least responsive to prices. This study shows that the tax relationship is not robust across data periods and that it reflects missing variable biases. While lack of control for law enforcement effort does not appear to bias tax coefficients, failure to include determinants of alcohol consumption other than taxes and drinking age and/or factors that simultaneously determine drinking behavior and political support for alcohol taxes apparently do.     

A Comparison of Two Quadratic Approaches to Hedging in Incomplete Markets

This paper provides comparative theoretical and numerical results on risks, values, and hedging strategies for local risk-minimization versus mean-variance hedging in a class of stochastic volatility models. We explain the theory for both hedging approaches in a general framework, specialize to a Markovian situation, and analyze in detail variants of the well-known Heston (1993) and Stein and Stein (1991) stochastic volatility models. Numerical results are obtained mainly by PDE and simulation methods. In addition, we take special care to check that all of our examples do satisfy the conditions required by the general theory.     

Persistent Advantage or Disadvantage?: Evidence in Support of the Intergenerational Drag Hypothesis

By utilizing the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series (IPUMS) and a measure of occupational prestige (OCCSCORE) as a labor market outcome, the authors examine variations in the degree of labor market discrimination faced by several ethnic and racial groups in the United States between 1880 and 1990. Results demonstrate that the sharpest decline in labor market discrimination against blacks occurred between 1960 and 1980. For black males the extent of labor market discrimination was greater in all census years in IPUMS after 1880 until 1970, evidence contradicting the conventional expectation that market-based discrimination will decline progressively over time by dint of competitive pressure. Finally, after replicating George Borjas' "ethnic capital" exercise, the authors pool the 1880, 1900, and 1910 data to determine the relative magnitude of a group's gains and losses in occupational prestige due to group advantage or disadvantage in human capital endowments and due to favorable or unfavorable treatment (nepotism or discrimination) of those endowments in the labor market. The authors then examine statistically whether the group human capital advantage or disadvantage and group exposure to nepotism or discrimination at the turn of the century affects labor market outcomes for their descendants today. Results indicate strong effects of the past on present labor market outcomes. Hence, the essence of the study is the statistical demonstration that there are significant and detectable effects on current generations of the labor market experiences of their racial/ethnic ancestors.     

Implications of Economic Interdependence for Endogenous Wage Indexation Decisions

This paper shows how economic interdependence affects the indexation decisions of atomistic wage setters in an environment in which monetary authorities do not observe stochastic disturbances before making their policy choices. If stochastic disturbances are common across countries, interdependence has no effect on equilibrium indexation choices in identical countries. However, if disturbances are country specific, numerical simulations show that interdependence is likely to reduce equilibrium indexation choices relative to a small open economy. We also show that indexation choices may be either strategic complements or strategic substitutes, but that strategic complementarity becomes more likely as the degree of interdependence rises.     

Externalities in the agricultural export sector and economic growth: a developing country perspective

For years economists have ignored the diversity in agriculture and its potential to increase long run growth rates by enhancing a country's knowledge base. Non-traditional agriculture requires significant investments in the infrastructure and knowledge; and therefore, has the potential to increase long run growth rates. Policy makers in developing countries have tended to enact macroeconomic policies designed to enhance the manufacturing sector at the expense of the agricultural sector. A theoretical model is developed to explain the dynamics between two non-traditional export sectors and the long run economic growth of the country. The model illustrates that growth in highly perishable agricultural exports, not domestic production of manufactured goods, can potentially lead to higher long run growth rates. The model is applied to the fruit and flower industries in Colombia to bring forth an example with real world relevance.