Time‐Varying Spot and Futures Oil Price Dynamics

In this paper, we investigate the role of crude oil spot and futures prices in the process of price discovery by using daily data over the period from January 1992 to September 2012. We provide evidence that futures markets play a more important role than spot markets, but their relative contributions turn out to be highly unstable, especially for the most deferred contracts. Furthermore, considering the time‐varying dynamics provides evidence of a smaller role for futures markets and a greater role for fundamental factors in driving oil prices during the global financial turmoil of 2007–2008. The implications of the main results for hedging and forecasting crude oil spot prices are also discussed.     

Collective action clauses: How do they affect sovereign bond yields?

We study the effects of the adoption of collective action clauses (CACs) on government bond yields by exploiting secondary market data on sovereign bonds quoted in international markets from March 2007 to April 2011. CACs are assessed security by security. Using a panel data approach, we find a U-shaped effect of CACs on yields according to the credit rating of the issuer. While the impact is negligible for the highest ratings, a significant yield discount emerges for mid-range ratings, which is smaller for bad ratings and possibly insignificant for the worst ratings. This relationship appears fairly robust across a number of checks. This evidence may reflect the fact that CACs are valuable because they help with orderly restructuring unless the perceived probability of default is too small. Nevertheless, at low ratings, this effect can be weakened by an increasing risk of moral hazard.     

An evolutionary theory of household consumption behavior

Evolutionary economics badly needs a behavioral theory of household consumption behavior, but to date only limited progress has been made on that front. Partly because Schumpeter’s own writings were focused there, and partly because this has been the focus of most of the more recent empirical work on technological change, modern evolutionary economists have focused on the “supply side”. However, because a significant portion of the innovation going on in capitalist countries has been in the form of new consumer goods and services, it should be obvious that dealing coherently with the Schumpeterian agenda requires a theory which treats in a realistic way how consumers respond to new goods and services. The purpose of this essay is to map out a broad alternative to the neoclassical theory of consumer behavior.     

How costly are debt crises?

The aim of this paper is to assess the short and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after 8 years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.     

Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data

We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch). Our results show significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements. Announcements are not anticipated at 1–2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1–2 weeks; spillover effects especially among EMU countries and from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countries.     

The Common Agricultural Policy after 2013

In October 2011 the European Commission presented a set of legal proposals designed to make the Common Agricultural Policy more effective. Pending a debate in the European Parliament and the Council, approval is expected by the end of 2013. This Forum aims to identify the proposals?? shortcomings and to offer suggestions for improvement which the Parliament and Council can work to implement. The authors pay particular attention to the future of direct payments, CAP greening and rural development, as well as to the change in the decision-making rules which grants the Parliament more authority over the process.     

Export behavior and productivity growth: Evidence from Italian manufacturing firms

Export Behavior and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Firms. — This paper provides econometric evidence supporting the hypothesis that exporting implies learning effects. Learning-by-exporting is modeled as a change, induced by export behavior, in the stochastic process governing firms’ productivity. Empirically, this is implemented by specifying cross-section regressions of labor productivity growth on measures of export behavior, controlling for past productivity growth and other firms’ characteristics. Using a sample of Italian manufacturing firms, it is found that exporters do not exhibit faster productivity growth. Nevertheless, growth in value added per worker has a positive and significant relation with firms’ export intensity. In other words, only firms substantially involved in exporting have a significantly higher rate of productivity growth. This result suggests that learning-by-exporting is by no means simply the outcome of the presence in the export market.     

Computing the survival probability in the Madan–Unal credit risk model: application to the CDS market

We obtain a quasi-analytical approximation of the survival probability in the credit risk model proposed in [Madan, D.B. and Unal, H., Pricing the risk of default. Rev. Deriv. Res., 1998, 2(2), 121–160]. Such a formula, which extensive numerical simulations reveal to be accurate and computationally fast, can also be employed for pricing credit default swaps (CDSs). Specifically, we derive a quasi-analytical approximate expression for CDS par spreads, and we use it to estimate the parameters of the model. The results obtained show a rather satisfactory agreement between theoretical and real market data.     

The Cognitive Side of Social Responsibility

Individuals sit on the board of directors and set organizational goals, individuals make the product, push new marketing campaigns, make tough decisions, create new products, and so on. What is the role of social responsibility (SR) in their thinking? Do individuals need to behave responsibly to live in a social environment? Could this be grounded in their cognition? Furthermore, is there room for SR in our cognitive processes? And then, how can this analysis help studies on socially responsible business? The article presents how the distributed cognition approach provides a viable explanation for SR in human thinking. The exploitation of external – both social and nonsocial – resources shapes cognitive processes such that the idea of the “isolated brain” is definitely abandoned. Our social cognition uses responsibility as a support mechanism that sustains or discharges distributive processes. The article uses the notion of docility to keep cognition and social behavior together. The conclusion is that SR is (1) a mechanism that allows individuals to maintain cognitive advantages and (2) it emerges when the same social channel is exploited for extended periods of time.