Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data

We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch). Our results show significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements. Announcements are not anticipated at 1–2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1–2 weeks; spillover effects especially among EMU countries and from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countries.     

The Common Agricultural Policy after 2013

In October 2011 the European Commission presented a set of legal proposals designed to make the Common Agricultural Policy more effective. Pending a debate in the European Parliament and the Council, approval is expected by the end of 2013. This Forum aims to identify the proposals?? shortcomings and to offer suggestions for improvement which the Parliament and Council can work to implement. The authors pay particular attention to the future of direct payments, CAP greening and rural development, as well as to the change in the decision-making rules which grants the Parliament more authority over the process.     

Mortgage‐backed Securitization and SME Lending During the Financial and Economic Crisis: Evidence from the Italian Cooperative Banking System

I investigate the determinants of the securitization activities of Italian cooperative banks during the financial and economic crisis (2007–2014) and the impact of securitization on the supply of loans to SMEs. The less deposit‐funded, less profitable and less capitalized cooperative banks are, the more likely they are to securitize and the more likely it is that they will securitize to a larger extent. Furthermore, I find that securitization has not directly affected the supply of new SME loans. However, there is strong evidence of a risk‐rebalancing effect of securitization on the balance sheet, especially in the period 2010–2014.     

Export behavior and productivity growth: Evidence from Italian manufacturing firms

Export Behavior and Productivity Growth: Evidence from Italian Manufacturing Firms. — This paper provides econometric evidence supporting the hypothesis that exporting implies learning effects. Learning-by-exporting is modeled as a change, induced by export behavior, in the stochastic process governing firms’ productivity. Empirically, this is implemented by specifying cross-section regressions of labor productivity growth on measures of export behavior, controlling for past productivity growth and other firms’ characteristics. Using a sample of Italian manufacturing firms, it is found that exporters do not exhibit faster productivity growth. Nevertheless, growth in value added per worker has a positive and significant relation with firms’ export intensity. In other words, only firms substantially involved in exporting have a significantly higher rate of productivity growth. This result suggests that learning-by-exporting is by no means simply the outcome of the presence in the export market.     

Computing the survival probability in the Madan–Unal credit risk model: application to the CDS market

We obtain a quasi-analytical approximation of the survival probability in the credit risk model proposed in [Madan, D.B. and Unal, H., Pricing the risk of default. Rev. Deriv. Res., 1998, 2(2), 121–160]. Such a formula, which extensive numerical simulations reveal to be accurate and computationally fast, can also be employed for pricing credit default swaps (CDSs). Specifically, we derive a quasi-analytical approximate expression for CDS par spreads, and we use it to estimate the parameters of the model. The results obtained show a rather satisfactory agreement between theoretical and real market data.     

The Cognitive Side of Social Responsibility

Individuals sit on the board of directors and set organizational goals, individuals make the product, push new marketing campaigns, make tough decisions, create new products, and so on. What is the role of social responsibility (SR) in their thinking? Do individuals need to behave responsibly to live in a social environment? Could this be grounded in their cognition? Furthermore, is there room for SR in our cognitive processes? And then, how can this analysis help studies on socially responsible business? The article presents how the distributed cognition approach provides a viable explanation for SR in human thinking. The exploitation of external – both social and nonsocial – resources shapes cognitive processes such that the idea of the “isolated brain” is definitely abandoned. Our social cognition uses responsibility as a support mechanism that sustains or discharges distributive processes. The article uses the notion of docility to keep cognition and social behavior together. The conclusion is that SR is (1) a mechanism that allows individuals to maintain cognitive advantages and (2) it emerges when the same social channel is exploited for extended periods of time.     

Why Do Established Firms Enter Some Industries and Exit Others? Empirical Evidence on Italian Business Groups

In this paper the determinants of entry and exitdecisions are analysed empirically on a sample of wellestablished business groups operating in Italianmanufacturing. The focus is on the role of sunk costsas entry barriers. Two competing hypotheses aretested. On the one hand, setup costs, R & D andadvertising outlays act as barriers to entry for bothnew and already established firms because of theirindustry-specific commitment value. On the other hand,they may induce established firms, which operate insimilar industries, to enter. This is the case if R & Dand advertising are firm-specific investments whichgenerate externalities to be efficiently exploited inadjacent industries. Overall results suggest that thesecond hypothesis gives a better picture of thebehaviour of our sample of firms.     

Technical efficiency in the Italian performing arts companies

This paper evaluates the determinants of firms’ technical efficiency in the Italian Performing Arts (PA) sector, by estimating a stochastic production frontier for an unbalanced panel of 107 firms over the period 2005–2012. The panel data setting allows us to control for both unobserved and observed heterogeneity of PA firms, reaching several interesting and robust findings. Firstly, it finds that the Italian PA firms are scale inefficient as they generally operate in either an increasing or decreasing returns to scale landscape. This result is reinforced by the fact that the smaller firms (10–49 employees) are the most technically efficient firm size class. Secondly, this research proves that the efficiency score is on average 66%, demonstrating that PA firms’ output could be substantially increased without the use of new inputs. Thirdly, it confirms that the quality matters and competences increase the efficiency in the sector. Finally, the environmental factors (especially the quality of institutions) have a strong impact on technical efficiency of PA firms, supporting that regional differences also exist in this sector.     

Distribution of wealth and incomplete markets: Theory and empirical evidence

This paper analyses the equilibrium distribution of wealth in an economy where firms’ productivities are subject to idiosyncratic shocks, returns on factors are determined in competitive markets, households have linear consumption functions and government imposes taxes on capital and labour incomes and equally redistributes the collected resources to households. The equilibrium distribution of wealth is explicitly calculated and its shape crucially depends on market incompleteness. With incomplete markets it follows a Paretian law in the top tail and the Pareto exponent depends on the saving rate, on the net return on capital, on the growth rate of population, and on portfolio diversification. The characteristics of the labour market crucially affects the bottom tail, but not the upper tail of the distribution of wealth in the case of completely decentralized labour market. The analysis also suggests a positive relationship between growth and wealth inequality. The theoretical predictions find a corroboration in the empirical evidence of United States in the period 1989-2004.     

Optimal Portfolio Choice Under Decision‐Based Model Combinations

We propose a density combination approach featuring combination weights that depend on the past forecast performance of the individual models entering the combination through a utility‐based objective function. We apply this model combination scheme to forecast stock returns, both at the aggregate level and by industry, and investigate its forecasting performance relative to a host of existing combination methods, both within the class of linear and time‐varying coefficients, stochastic volatility models. Overall, we find that our combination scheme produces markedly more accurate predictions than the existing alternatives, both in terms of statistical and economic measures of out‐of‐sample predictability. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.