Realizing smiles: Options pricing with realized volatility

We develop a discrete-time stochastic volatility option pricing model exploiting the information contained in the Realized Volatility (RV), which is used as a proxy of the unobservable log-return volatility. We model the RV dynamics by a simple and effective long-memory process, whose parameters can be easily estimated using historical data. Assuming an exponentially affine stochastic discount factor, we obtain a fully analytic change of measure. An empirical analysis of Standard and Poor's 500 index options illustrates that our model outperforms competing time-varying and stochastic volatility option pricing models.     

How costly are debt crises?

The aim of this paper is to assess the short and medium-term impact of debt crises on GDP. Using an unbalanced panel of 154 countries from 1970 to 2008, the paper shows that debt crises produce significant and long-lasting output losses, reducing output by about 10 percent after 8 years. The results also suggest that debt crises tend to be more detrimental than banking and currency crises. The significance of the results is robust to different specifications, identification and endogeneity checks, and datasets.     

Sovereign credit ratings and financial markets linkages: Application to European data

We use EU sovereign bond yield and CDS spreads daily data to carry out an event study analysis on the reaction of government yield spreads before and after announcements from rating agencies (Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, Fitch). Our results show significant responses of government bond yield spreads to changes in rating notations and outlook, particularly in the case of negative announcements. Announcements are not anticipated at 1–2 months horizon but there is bi-directional causality between ratings and spreads within 1–2 weeks; spillover effects especially among EMU countries and from lower rated countries to higher rated countries; and persistence effects for recently downgraded countries.     

Computing the survival probability in the Madan–Unal credit risk model: application to the CDS market

We obtain a quasi-analytical approximation of the survival probability in the credit risk model proposed in [Madan, D.B. and Unal, H., Pricing the risk of default. Rev. Deriv. Res., 1998, 2(2), 121–160]. Such a formula, which extensive numerical simulations reveal to be accurate and computationally fast, can also be employed for pricing credit default swaps (CDSs). Specifically, we derive a quasi-analytical approximate expression for CDS par spreads, and we use it to estimate the parameters of the model. The results obtained show a rather satisfactory agreement between theoretical and real market data.     

Why Do Established Firms Enter Some Industries and Exit Others? Empirical Evidence on Italian Business Groups

In this paper the determinants of entry and exitdecisions are analysed empirically on a sample of wellestablished business groups operating in Italianmanufacturing. The focus is on the role of sunk costsas entry barriers. Two competing hypotheses aretested. On the one hand, setup costs, R & D andadvertising outlays act as barriers to entry for bothnew and already established firms because of theirindustry-specific commitment value. On the other hand,they may induce established firms, which operate insimilar industries, to enter. This is the case if R & Dand advertising are firm-specific investments whichgenerate externalities to be efficiently exploited inadjacent industries. Overall results suggest that thesecond hypothesis gives a better picture of thebehaviour of our sample of firms.     

Distribution Dynamics and Nonlinear Growth

This paper extends the distribution dynamics approach to the study of the shape of the growth process of a cross-section of countries. We first identify some empirical implications of a nonlinear Solovian growth model with multiple equilibria. These implications are then tested by a novel definition of the state space, which jointly considers income and growth rate. The main findings are that nonlinearity is a salient feature of the overall picture, and that the cross-section dynamics is compatible with the existence of multiple equilibria. We also discuss how the hypothesis of conditional convergence may be challenged in the light of our results.     

Search practices for discontinuous innovation: scale development and construct validation

Managing innovation and particularly searching for new ideas in a steady state environment is really different than in discontinuous conditions where traditional practices and routines may prove ineffective. This paper reviews and empirically explores the field of search strategies and practices for discontinuous innovation and, for the first time, tests the validity of a ‘discontinuous innovation (DI) search capacity’ construct. Based on a comprehensive literature review on the innovation search stage and on the evidence of more than 80 case studies reported by the Discontinuous Innovation Laboratory, a questionnaire was developed and submitted to a 500 high-tech firm sample. Four DI search dimensions were identified, each consisting of a bundle of interrelated yet distinct practices. We empirically tested the DI search capacity and measured it as a second-order construct by using the structural equation modelling.     

Distribution of wealth and incomplete markets: Theory and empirical evidence

This paper analyses the equilibrium distribution of wealth in an economy where firms’ productivities are subject to idiosyncratic shocks, returns on factors are determined in competitive markets, households have linear consumption functions and government imposes taxes on capital and labour incomes and equally redistributes the collected resources to households. The equilibrium distribution of wealth is explicitly calculated and its shape crucially depends on market incompleteness. With incomplete markets it follows a Paretian law in the top tail and the Pareto exponent depends on the saving rate, on the net return on capital, on the growth rate of population, and on portfolio diversification. The characteristics of the labour market crucially affects the bottom tail, but not the upper tail of the distribution of wealth in the case of completely decentralized labour market. The analysis also suggests a positive relationship between growth and wealth inequality. The theoretical predictions find a corroboration in the empirical evidence of United States in the period 1989-2004.     

Group heterogeneity and cooperation on the geographical indication regulation: The case of the “Prosciutto di Parma” Consortium

This paper explores the impact of individual group members’ heterogeneous characteristics, resources and strategies on their level of cooperation on defining the future regulation of Geographical Indications (GIs). By following a “grounded theory” approach, this study combines qualitative evidence from an in-depth study on the “Prosciutto di Parma” Protected Designation of Origin (PDO) Consortium with quantitative evidence based on data collected from 94 Consortium members and analysed through path modelling. Results confirm that (1) “Prosciutto di Parma” Consortium members have highly and increasingly heterogeneous characteristics, assets and strategies and that (2) higher heterogeneity negatively affects members’ agreement on the future level of restrictiveness of “Prosciutto di Parma” PDO as GI and therefore the effectiveness of the collective action. Overall, these findings give light to another internal barrier that may threaten producers’ opportunity of profiting from the use of established and highly recognized GIs. Managerial and policy implications for both “Prosciutto di Parma” Consortium members and other groups governing established and highly recognized GIs are drawn.