The excess co-movement of commodity prices reconsidered

This paper provides an empirical reconsideration of evidence for excess co-movement of commodity prices within the framework of univariate and multivariate GARCH(1, 1) models. Alternative formulations of zero excess co-movement are provided, and corresponding score and likelihood ratio tests are developed. Monthly time series data for two sample periods, 1960–85 and 1974–92, on up to nine commodities are used. In contrast to earlier work, only weak evidence of excess co-movement is found.     

Information content of IPO grading

In the year 2007, Indian capital market regulator-SEBI, introduced a unique certification mechanism for IPOs whereby all IPOs have to undergo mandatory quality grading by independent rating agencies. In this paper we argue that such objective, independent and exogenous certifying mechanism provides a better opportunity to test the well established certification hypothesis, especially in the context of emerging markets with institutional voids. Using a sample of 163 Indian IPOs we test the efficacy of IPO grading mechanism. We find, grading decreases IPO underpricing and positively influences demand of retail investors. Grading reduces secondary market risk and improves liquidity. However, grading does not affect long run performance of the IPOs. IPO grading successfully capture firm size, business group affiliation and firm’s quality of corporate governance. Our findings imply that, in emerging markets, regulator’s role to signal the quality of an IPO contributes towards the market welfare.     

Bayesian analysis of the two‐part model with endogeneity: application to health care expenditure

This paper studies the effect of managed care on medical expenditure using a model in which the insurance status is assumed to be endogenous. Insurance plan choice is modeled through the multinomial probit model. The medical expenditure variable, the outcome of interest, has a significant proportion of zeros that are handled using the two‐part model, extended to handle endogenous insurance. The estimation approach is Bayesian, based on the Gibbs Sampler. The model is applied to a sample of 20 460 individuals obtained from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey. The results provide substantial evidence of selectivity. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Emerging challenges for R&D executives — an American perspective

In recent years, many companies have witnessed dramatic changes in their business environment. Emergence of global markets and competitors coupled with new competitive strategies based on quality, speed and/or alliances have forced business managers — especially in the United States — to adopt new management strategies, structures and systems. These in turn have caused many R&D executives to progress from their traditional agenda of managing R&D activities in domestic laboratories to a new agenda of coordinating and integrating technology development and exploitation on a world-wide basis. This paper discusses this evolution of R&D management agenda in the United States and its implications. It also reviews the approaches being used and the experiences being gained by the American R&D management community to address the emerging challenges.     

Cross‐market correlations and transmission of information

We investigate characteristics of cross‐market correlations using daily data from U.S. stock, bond, money, and currency futures markets using a new multivariate GARCH model that permits direct hypothesis testing on conditional correlations. We find evidence that arrival of information in a market affects subsequent cross‐market conditional correlations in the sample period following the stock market crash of 1987, but there is little evidence of such a relationship in the precrash period. In the postcrash period, we also find evidence that the prime rate of interest affects daily correlations between futures returns. Furthermore, we find that conditional correlations between currency futures and other markets decline steeply a few months before the crash and revert to normal dynamics after the crash. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:1059–1082, 2002     

Factors influencing the decision to hire contract labour by Indian manufacturing firms

ABSTRACT

Over a third of workers employed in the Indian formal manufacturing sector are ‘contract’ workers – hired through the services of labour contractors, facing lower wages and no job security in relation to regular workers. We investigate the role of a variety of factors that influence the decision of employers to hire in contract workers, using information from a specially commissioned survey of manufacturing firms. While there are immediate cost advantages that tilt firms towards hiring in contract labour, a counterforce has employers favouring regular workers in firms that have a large proportion of their workforce concentrating on production activity – probably instances where long-term human capital investment by regular workers is important for the firm.

Abbreviation: CLA: Contract Labour (Regulation and Abolition) Act, 1970 ASI: Annual Survey of Industries NIC: National Industrial Classification MSME: Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises SEZ: Special Economic Zone ICRIER: Indian Council for Research on International Economic Relations     

CO-MOVEMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL EQUITY MARKETS

We examine the co-movements of equity returns in four major international markets by characterizing the time-varying cross-country covariances and correlations. Using a generalized positive definite multivariate GARCH model, we find that the Japanese and U.S. stock markets have significant transitory covariance, but zero permanent covariance. The other pairs of markets examined display significant permanent and transitory covariance. We also find that, while conditional correlations between returns are generally small, they change considerably over time. An event analysis suggests that basing diversification strategies on these conditional correlations is potentially beneficial.     

Relational contracts with subjective peer evaluations

We study optimal dynamic contracting for a firm with multiple workers where compensation is based on public performance signals and privately reported peer evaluations. We show that if evaluation and effort provision are done by different workers (e.g., consider supervisor‐agent hierarchy), first‐best can be achieved even in a static setting. However, if each worker both exerts effort and reports peer evaluations (e.g., consider team setting), effort incentives cannot be decoupled from truth‐telling incentives. This makes the optimal static contract inefficient. Relational contracts based on public signals increase efficiency. Interestingly, the optimal contract may ignore signals that are informative about effort.     

Strategy-proof and individually rational social choice functions for public good economies: A note

Summary. Serizawa [3] characterized the set of strategy-proof, individually rational, no exploitative, and non-bossy social choice functions in economies with pure public goods. He left an open question whether non-bossiness is necessary for his characterization. We will prove that non-bossiness is implied by the other three axioms in his characterization. Received: October 17, 1997; revised version: January 19, 1998