Forecasting first births

This study is concerned with one aspect of the family cycle, namely, the transition from young married to young married with small children. The focus is on developing models to forecast entries into this latter stage for the purpose of marketing research. "Using ordinary least squares, forecasting models were estimated for (1) total number of first births, (2) number of white first births, and (3) number of nonwhite first births." Models are estimated for both the United States and California using data from official sources.     

When Hard Heads Collide

ABSTRACT . In this article, Loren Lomasky begins with a firsthand account of some of the people he interacted with at the Center for the Study of Public Choice in Blacksburg and some of what he learned there. Aside from the revealing personal anecdotes, we learn something of the culture clash he experienced as a visiting fellow at the Center and about his introduction to intellectual activity as “blood sport.” Lomasky then reviews some of the strengths and weaknesses of public choice theory from a philosophical point of view and offers some suggestions. These primarily concern the theory's narrow focus on the material nature of interests. Finally, Lomasky offers techniques for including moral interests in the deliberations of decision makers.     

A comparison of alternative methods of updating input-output coefficients

In recent years there has been a growing number of input-output models of economies ranging in scale from the rural to the national. While offering invaluable insights into the interaction of sectors within an economy, the input-output model suffers from the fact that its coefficient values are altered over time due particularly to technological change. Two of the prominent techniques designed to update these technical coefficients, the RAS and linear programming methods, are compared herein with regard to changes in U.S. national coefficients between 1963 and 1967. Suggestions for improvements to the latter method are outlined.     

Book Reviews

Andrew MacIntyre (ed.), Business and Government in Industrialising Asia, Allen & Unwin, Sydney, 1994, pp. xii + 312. Paper: A$29.95.

John Bresnan, From Dominoes to Dynamos: The Transformation of Southeast Asia, Council on Foreign Relations, New York, 1994, pp. x + 115. $17.95.

Anthony Reid, Southeast Asia in the Age of Commerce 1450–1680: Volume Two, Expansion and Crisis, Yale University Press, New Haven and London, 1993, pp. xv + 390.

Binhadi, Financial Sector Deregulation, Banking Development and Monetary Policy: The Indonesian Experience (1983–1993), Indonesian Bankers' Institute, Jakarta, 1995.

Anwar Shah and Zia Qureshi, with Amaresh Bagchi, Brian Binder, and Heng-fu Zou, Intergovernmental Fiscal Relations in Indonesia: Issues and Reform Options, World Bank Discussion Papers 239, Washington DC, pp. xxxii + 279. $17.95; A$425.00; NZ$30.25.

Jacqueline Vel, The Uma-economy: Indigenous Economics and Development Work in Lawonda, Sumba (Eastern-Indonesia), Wageningen, pp. xiv + 283. $20.00 + $8 postage & handling.

Joao Mariano de Sousa Saldanha, The Political Economy of East Timor Development, translated by Theresia Slamet and P.G. Kattopo, Pustaka Sinar Harapan, Jakarta, 1994, pp. 414.

Jan-Paul Dirkse, Frans H$uUsken and Mario Rutten (eds), Development and Social Welfare: Indonesia's Experiences under the New Order, KITLV Press, Leiden, 1993, pp. 267.

W.G. Huff, The Economic Growth of Singapore: Trade and Development in the Twentieth Century, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 1994, pp. xxi + 472. A$60.

Saha Dhevan Meyanathan (ed.), Industrial Structures and the Development of Small and Medium Enterprise Linkages: Examples from East Asia, The World Bank (Economic Development Institute of the World Bank Seminar Series), Washington DC, 1994, pp. v + 158. Paper: $9.95.

Thee Kian Wie, Industrialisasi di Indonesia: Beberapa Kajian, LP3ES, Jakarta, pp. xxvi + 278 (including Introduction by Mari Pangestu).     

Gender and ethical orientation: A test of gender and occupational socialization theories

Ethics and associated values influence not only managerial behavior but also managerial success (England and Lee, 1973). Gender socialization theory hypothesizes gender differences in ethics variables whether or not individuals are full time employees; occupational socialization hypothesizes gender similarity in employees. The conflicting hypotheses were investigated using questionnaire responses from a sample of 308 individuals. Analysis of variance and hierarchical regression yielded unexpected results. Although no significant gender differences emerged in individuals lacking full time employment, significant differences existed between employed women and men, with women appearing more ethical. While occupational socialization predicts an interaction between employment status and gender, these group differences were opposite to those predicted. An implication for the two theories and the current conflicting research support is that these commonly used theories may be of limited usefulness. Some alternative concepts are proposed.E. Sharon Mason is an Assistant Professor of organizational behavior and human resource management in the Faculty of Business, Brock University, St Catharines, Ontario.Peter E. Mudrack is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Management and Organization Sciences at Wayne State University, Detroit, Michigan.     

The dynamics of role interaction

Success in our respective business environments is not totally dependent on technical expertise; we must be able to also effectively interact with people. The necessity of successful leadership is assumed; however, we often fail to recognize the value of strategically subordinating ourselves to others. Both roles must be emphasized with the knowledge that preferred individual styles are valid.