“Economic Capital Allocation Derived from Risk Measures”, Eddy Van den Borre,January 2003

Abstract

The sustained reduction in mortality rates and its systematic underestimation has been attracting the significant interest of researchers in recent times because of its potential impact on population size and structure, social security systems, and (from an actuarial perspective) the life insurance and pensions industry worldwide. Despite the number of papers published in recent years, a comprehensive review has not yet been developed.

This paper attempts to be the starting point for that review, highlighting the importance of recently published research—most of the references cited span the last 10 years—and covering the main methodologies that have been applied to the projection of mortality rates in the United Kingdom and the United States. A comparative review of techniques used in official population projections, actuarial applications, and the most influential scientific approaches is provided. In the course of the review an attempt is made to identify common themes and similarities in methods and results.

In both official projections and actuarial applications there is some evidence of systematic overestimation of mortality rates. Models developed by academic researchers seem to reveal a trade-off between the plausibility of the projected age pattern and the ease of measuring the uncertainty involved. The Lee-Carter model is one approach that appears to solve this apparent dilemma.

There is a broad consensus across the resulting projections: (1) an approximately log-linear relationship between mortality rates and time, (2) decreasing improvements according to age, and (3) an increasing trend in the relative rate of mortality change over age. In addition, evidence suggests that excessive reliance on expert opinion—present to some extent in all methods—has led to systematic underestimation of mortality improvements.     

中国古代海外贸易管理制度研究的新成果——郑有国著《中国市舶制度研究》评介

海外贸易史在中国传统史学中原是较为薄弱的一个研究领域,有关中国海外贸易管理制度的探讨自然不多。上个世纪二三十年代以来,日本学者藤田丰八《宋代市舶司与市舶条例》、桑原骘藏《蒲寿庚考》等著作的问世,开启了中国古代海外贸易管理制度研究的先河。迟至八十年代初,陈高华、吴泰先生合著《宋元时期的海外贸易》,中国学者逐渐涉足这一领域的研究。随后,漆侠先生《宋代市舶抽解制度》(《河南大学学报》,1985年第1期),台湾学者     

Naturally designed for masculinity vs. femininity? Prenatal testosterone predicts male consumers' choices of gender-imaged products

In this paper, we find that a proxy of prenatal testosterone exposure (i.e., digit ratio) is a significant predictor of preferences for products that differ in perceived masculinity vs. femininity. A more masculine (feminine) digit ratio predicts choice of products that have an increasingly masculine (feminine) image. This relationship is statistically significant for male consumers, but not for females.     

The case of labour time reduction without wage compensation: More or less employment?

Summary In this paper a model of a closed economy, including a market sector and a public sector, is presented to analyse the consequences of a reduction of labour time with and without wage compensation. It turns out that a policy of labour time reduction without wage compensation is a very strong instrument to improve production and employment, if the economy is characterized by the Keynesiandemand model. But if the economy is characterized by the neoclassicalsupply model, a relatively large drop in wages is necessary to prevent a policy of labour time reduction from causing a process of stagflation.     

The influence of entrepreneur’s personal characteristics on MSEs growth through innovation

Research in the separate areas of innovation and growth has considerably intensified in recent years. However, little scholarly attention has been paid to the entrepreneurs’ personal characteristics that might explain the growth of micro and small enterprises (MSEs) through innovation. This study examines the key entrepreneurs’ personal characteristics affecting micro and small enterprises (MSEs) upgrading, defined here as substantial growth through innovation. Six major determining types of entrepreneurs’ characteristics were identified from the innovation and the growth literature: education, work experience, gender, motivations, nationality and age. The empirical results which are based on t-tests of the differences between upgraders and non-upgraders, the linear probability model and the logit model, all suggest that work experience and motivations are cornerstones in the likelihood that an MSE will upgrade. The policy implications of this study on promoting MSEs upgrading are also discussed.     

论股东代表诉讼之判决既判力主观范围的扩张

股东代表诉讼判决既判力主观范围的扩张,包括向公司与其他股东二者的扩张。长期以来原告股东与公司的关系存在诉讼代理与诉讼担当之争,综合立法现状、制度渊源与改革成本等因素的考量,原告股东与公司的关系应定性为法定诉讼担当,从而为判决既判力向公司扩张提供正当理论支撑。但受制于股东代表诉讼前置程序形骸化,对原告股东起诉的正当性审查无从实现,公司与其他股东对于诉讼的获悉存在信息壁垒,由此应当通过诉讼告知程序为公司或其他股东作为有独立请求权第三人进入诉讼开辟通路。同时借由不起诉理由书与统一案件受理费等程序构建,作为其他股东进入诉讼的激励机制,进而为既判力的扩张提供有理性基础。     

Measuring misleading information in IPO prospectuses

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Newly public firms may provide misleading information about their business plans in their initial public offering (IPO) prospectuses. Using textual...     

Investments,wages, prices and demand for labour

Summary Since 1971 the employment in the Netherlands has continuously decreased. Apart from the decrease caused by the recent depression, particularly in the year 1975, the decrease is a more pronounced continuation of a tendency which is manifest already in a number of years before. In this paper an attempt is made to explain the structural development of employment by means of a clay-clay vintage model. It appears that the unfavourable development of employment is connected with the accelerated growth of real labour costs in the past decade.This article is a translation of a revised and somewhat extended version of a paper published earlier in Dutch: H. den Hartog and H. S. Tjan,Investeringen, lonen, prijzen en arbeidsplaatsen, Central Planning Bureau, Occasional Paper, 1974/2, The Hague, 1974. This revised version of the clay-clay vintage model was introduced into a much more complete model of the economy of the Netherlands in: H. den Hartog, Th. C. M. J. van de Klundert and H. S. Tjan, De structurele ontwikkeling van de werkgelegenheid in macro-economisch perspectief, inWerkloosheid, Preadviezen van de Vereniging voor de Staathuishoudkunde, The Hague, 1975.     

Freia and Kompas,The Central Planning Bureau's new generation of macro-economic policy models: A review article

Summary On the eve of the 50th anniversary of macro-economic model building in the Netherlands, the Central Planning Bureau introduced two new models for policy analysis, the annual model FREIA and the quarterly model KOMPAS. The main novelty of these models as compared to their predecessors is a fully fledged submodel of the financial sector. This review article highlights some features of both models and compares their properties with those of other models and with results from the literature. The models have been explicitly constructed for practical use and therefore do not reflect any theoretical approach in particular.Critical comments on a previous version of this article by the Department's colleagues and a referee are gratefully acknowledged.     

湖南省农产品的绿色营销策略探讨

进入20世纪90年代以后,随着我国可持续发展战略的确立和循环经济理念的提出,随着自然、健康营养、环保的消费观念逐渐深入人心,湖南省农产品实施绿色营销的环境已基本具备。从长期来看,农产品绿色营销的顺利实施,离不开政府宏观制度环境、消费者需求环境、企业营销理念这三方面的共同进步。