Nonlinearity in the Fed's monetary policy rule

This paper investigates the nature of nonlinearities in the monetary policy rule of the US Federal Reserve (Fed) using the flexible approach to nonlinear inference. We find that while there is significant evidence of nonlinearity for the period to 1979, there is little such evidence for the subsequent period. Possible asymmetries in the Fed's reactions to inflation deviations from target and the output gap in the 1960s and 1970s may tell part of the story, but do not capture the entire nature of the nonlinearity. The inclusion of the interaction between inflation deviations and the output gap, as recently proposed, appears to characterize the nonlinear policy rule more adequately. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Ozone and Wheat Farming in Alberta: A Micro-study of the Effects of Environmental Change

Alberta's Clean Air Act of 1971 sets out maximum allowable levels for ozone concentrations in Alberta. Evidence shows that these standards for ambient ozone concentrations are often exceeded. As biological studies reveal, one of the consequences of exposure to ozone can be reduced yields for agricultural crops. Wheat, a major crop in Alberta, is one crop that has been shown to be sensitive to ozone. Biological studies alone, however, cannot capture the responses of farmers to deteriorating air quality. The profit-maximizing response, which can include changes in both output levels and input mixes, and the cost-minimizing response, which involves changes in input mixes, can be captured by estimating a variable profit and a variable cost function. The application of duality theory to the results from estimation of variable profit and cost functions allows researchers to study the impact of changing ozone levels on profits and costs as well as on the selection of factor input mixes and wheat output levels. In our study of wheat farming in Alberta, we find that, while the specific responses of farmers in terms of their input mix and output supply appear to vary across farms, there are significant decreases in profits and increases in costs as ozone concentrations rise. La Alberta Clean Air Act de 1971 fixe les niveaux acceptables maximums d'ozone en Alberta. Il appert que ces concentrations ambientales sont souvent dépassées. Comme le révèelent les études biologiques, une des conséquences de l'exposition à l'ozone peut être une diminution du rendement des cultures. Culture d'importance en Alberta, le blé s'est montré sensible à l'ozone. Toutefois, les études biologiques à elles seules ne peuvent saisir toutes les réactions des agriculteurs à la dégradation de la qualité de I'air. La réaction axée sur la maximisation des profits, laquelle peut inclure des changements à la fois dans le niveau de production et dans la composition des intrants, et la reponse axee sur la minimisation des coûts qui, elle, ne porte que sur la composition des intrants peuvent être saisies par une fonction à profit variable et par unefonction à coût variable. L'estimation combinée de ces fonctions permet aux chercheurs d'examiner les incidences des changements de la concentration d'ozone sur les bénéfices et sur les coûts, ainsi que sur le choix des combinaisons d'intrants utilisées et des niveaux de rendement du blé escomptés. Dans le cadre de notre étude sur les cultures du blé en Alberta, nous constatons que si la composition des intrants et les niveaux de production semblent varier d'une ferme à l'autre, l'accroissement des concentrations d'ozone dans l'atmosphére s'accompagne de chutes significatives des bénefices et d'accroissements significatifs des coûts.     

Causal Effects of Regulatory, Organizational and Personal Factors on Ethical Sensitivity

Prior researchers have studied individual components of a theoretical decision-making model. This paper presents the results of a more complete study of the model components and presents limited support of theory. The study examines the relative importance of regulatory, organizational, and personal constructs on an individual's ethical sensitivity. Auditors from the major international accounting firms, located in two southeastern cities, are surveyed. Structural equation modeling is used to allow for the simultaneous evaluation of the three constructs of interest. The results indicate that the regulatory and organizational constructs are negatively correlated with the personal experience construct. The three constructs are not significant causal factors on ethical sensitivity. This result may be due to the manner in which ethical sensitivity is typically measured or may indicate that the complexity of the ethical decision-making process is not fully captured in the theoretical models. Thus, the models suggested in the prior literature and the results presented in prior studies of the individual components may need to be reconsidered.     

Evaluating food hygiene inspection schemes: ‘Scores on Doors’ in the UK

Food hygiene inspection results previously kept confidential from the public may now be released, and this gives food authorities the opportunity to publish these ratings, known as ‘Scores on Doors’, allowing consumers to make informed decisions when deciding where they will eat. The UK's Food Standards Agency (FSA) is supporting trials of some of these schemes, which will involve more than 60 of the 400 local authorities, some of which have yet to launch their schemes. Other food authorities are running disclosure schemes independent of the FSA pilot scheme. The FSA has commissioned an evaluation of ‘Scores on Doors’ schemes to determine which is the most effective scheme with a view to launching a consistent nationwide scheme. A survey of ‘Scores on Doors’ schemes reveals many differences in the way they operate. This includes differences in the interpretation of scores, the extent of information that is disclosed, the communication channels used to disclose information, the amount of publicity provided for businesses and the public, the publicity given to the schemes by local media, and whether businesses are scored retrospectively or scored at inspection following the launch of the scheme. The implications of these variables for a comprehensive evaluation of the schemes are explored.     

Beyond the rhetoric of visitor management in transboundary protected areas: the case of Peneda–Geres

Although the objectives for transboundary protected areas are often clear, in practice the development and management of these areas, particularly for tourism, are complex. Often explained, in part, by cultural and political differences evident among border partners, this complexity adds to the challenge of managing these often pristine natural areas for tourism. Through a case‐study of Peneda–Geres National Park, Northern Portugal, which forms part of the Transfrontier Park of Geres–Xures, and which encompasses the Natural Park of Baixa–Limia Serra do Xures of Galicia, Spain, this paper sets out to explore the effectiveness of transboundary partnerships for purposes of visitor management in transboundary protected areas. The paper introduces 12 core guidelines, developed by the authors, for transboundary visitor management and highlights the range of constraints and limitations that impede effective visitor management. Thereafter, the paper compares and contrasts the 12 core guidelines with the visitor management ‘actions’ and ‘decisions’, and their underlying rationale, taken by the transboundary protected area authorities of the Transfrontier Park of Geres–Xures. The paper concludes with an assessment of the success to date of the Portuguese authorities in their attempts to meet the core guidelines. Subsequently, a preliminary assessment as to the implementation of further guidelines for the future is conducted. A Portuguese perspective is emphasised throughout this paper, owing to recent developments in Portuguese National Policy aimed towards the promotion of nature‐based tourism, efforts in the establishment and embetterment of a network of Protected Areas and the political and economic importance of cross‐border activities for northern Portugal and Galicia, Spain. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Business cycle non‐linearities in UK consumption and production

This paper develops non‐linear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models with two additive smooth transition components to capture the business cycle characteristics of UK real consumers' expenditure and industrial production. The results indicate consumption has essentially two business cycle regimes: recession and expansion. Industrial production, however, is characterized by the three regimes of recession, normal growth and high growth. The transitions describing recovery from recession are very similar for the two variables. Stochastic simulations illustrate the dynamic responses of these models and emphasize that they are locally linear. Our results also indicate that the two‐transition STAR models have some forecast advantages over other specifications for periods of contraction. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The challenge of optical fibres

Optical fibre technology can supply enormous bandwidth to meet the demands of the ever expanding telecommunications services. It has been said that they are the biggest competitors to satellites. This article outlines the history of optical fibres and how they work, and compares the benefits of both optical fibres and satellites for the communications market of the future. Geostationary satellites offer a global interconnectivity from both mobile and fixed points. Optical fibres offer heavy routing of both voice and data messages, freedom from interference, and cost advantages. The authors conclude that both will survive.     

Motivation for Repurchases: A Life Cycle Explanation

This study examines the motives for share repurchases. Whereas most prior research points to either the signaling or free cash flow hypothesis, we find that the motives for repurchases differ depending on the firm’s life cycle stage. Specifically, we find that a firm in the growth stage tends to announce a repurchase program to signal its undervalued stock whereas a firm in the mature stage is prone to buy back shares to dispense excess free cash flow. We also find that the market reaction to repurchase announcements corroborates this life-cycle argument.     

Brazilian Consumer Preferences for Processed Tomato Packaging Using Conjoint Analysis

Brazil is the largest producer and consumer of processed tomato products in Latin America. However, the consumption preferences related to this product are poorly studied. The aim of this study was to evaluate the influence of certain characteristics of processed tomato product packaging on Brazilian consumer preferences. The revised Personal Involvement Inventory (PII) and conjoint analysis (CA) were applied to 206 consumers in Brazil. Four packaging attributes were evaluated: colour (green, red, and yellow); material (sachets, tin, and brick carton packaging); the presence of additional information; and the presence of “easy-open” devices. The CA technique showed that in general, the Brazilian participants were influenced positively by red brick carton and sachet packaging and by the presence of additional information and a device that facilitated opening the package. The results presented in this study are useful for the food industry to develop packaging and marketing strategies using consumer profiles.