A FORECAST OF MILK SUPPLY IN ENGLAND AND WALES

This paper reports the problems encountered in applying Markov Chain analysis to the Permanent sample of milk producers in England and Wales, and presents predictions obtained for producer numbers and milk output, by regions, for the years 1970/71 and 1975/76. As a consequence of the “pool of entrants” problem, dificulties arise both in estimating the required transition probabilities and in forecasting producer numbers. Solutions to these, and to other problems concerned with obtaining prediction of milk output, from those of producer numbers, are proposed. It is forecast that producer numbers will decline by 18 per cent and 33 per cent by 1970/71 and 1975/76 respectively, with the largest proportional decline occurring among smaller producers. Two forecasts are made of milk supply and these are compared with estimates made by the Milk Morltetiiic Board.     

Statement no.98 the new depositor preference legislation

Statement no.98 the new depositor preference legislationSeptember 20, 1993     

Testing the interpretation of indices in a macroeconomic index model

This paper discusses and contrasts different approaches to the construction of dynamic models containing unobservables. It is argued that some analysis is easy to carry out using Dynamic Factor Analysis (DFA), a frequency domain technique, while other analysis is easier to carry out in the context of a Dynamic Multiple Indicator-Multiple Cause Model (DYMIMIC), a time domain technique. An example is presented in which six macroeconomic variables are found to be connected by two common factors using DFA. The interpretation of these factors as ‘anticipated’ and ‘unanticipated’ aggregate demand is then tested using the DYMIMIC model. This interpretation is strongly rejected.     

CORPORATE TAKEOVER BARRIERS: VALUATION AND FIRM PERFORMANCE

This study provides additional evidence on the share price effect of takeover barriers such as antitakeover charter amendments, dual classes of common stock, and poison pill plans. The share price reaction to the construction of takeover barriers is found to be negative but insignificant. However, when disaggregated by type, significant negative share price reactions are found on construction of poison pill plans. New evidence on the possible relationship between firm performance and takeover barrier construction is also presented. The results of this study suggest that management of 'efficiently-run' firms may construct takeover barriers to deter value-diminishing takeovers.