Linking technical change to research effort: an examination of aggregation and spillovers effects

We used a disaggregate approach to examine investment efficiency of wheat breeding research in India. India's total research effort comprizes 20 research programs spread across 50 experiment stations. A technology spillover matrix was constructed for both potential and actual spillovers. Spillovers and free‐riding were dominant characteristics of technical change during the period studied. Although the aggregate rate of return to wheat improvement research in India was estimated to be 55%, eight programs were found to have earned a negative rate of return when spillins were taken into account. Research output is concentrated on a few strong programs. The two strongest programs generated 75% of all the technical change benefits, even though they claimed just 22% of research resources. These two programs include a significant degree of overlap, while on the other hand many farmers were not reached by any of the programs – 56 and 78% of rainfed and durum area, respectively, in 1990 was still sown with pre‐1976 varieties.     

From engineer to taxi driver? Language proficiency and the occupational skills of immigrants

We examine the ability of immigrants to transfer the occupational human capital they acquired prior to immigration. We first augment a model of occupational choice to study the implications of language proficiency on the cross‐border transferability of occupational human capital. We then explore the empirical predictions using information about the skill requirements from O^*NET and a unique dataset that includes both the last source country occupation and the first four years of occupations in Canada. We supplement the analysis using Census estimates for the same cohort with source country occupational skill requirements predicted using detailed human capital related information such as field of study. We find that male immigrants to Canada were employed in source country occupations that typically require high levels of cognitive skills, but rely less intently on manual skills. Following immigration, they find initial employment in occupations that require the opposite. Consistent with the hypothesized asymmetric role of language in the transferability of previously acquired cognitive and manual skills, these discrepancies are larger among immigrants with limited language fluency.     

The evolution of global farming land: facts and interpretations

Although land plays a crucially important role in economic development and structural transformation, the causes and consequences of the evolution of farming land have received scant attention in recent decades. In this article, I document global and regional changes in aggregate agricultural land use, per capita land use, and average farm sizes. The spatial distribution of global farming land has changed dramatically, with developed countries substantially reducing their share of global agricultural land, and land‐abundant developing countries substantially increasing their share. In per capita terms, we see a rather different pattern, with average farm sizes increasing in rich and more commercialized agricultural systems, and generally declining or staying constant in poorer and less commercialized systems. These outcomes are the result of complex processes that are not always well understood. I conclude the article by suggesting new, or neglected, areas of research that would facilitate a better understanding of these critically important developments.     

The Marketing of Employee Volunteerism

Employee volunteerism can be an effective strategy for increasing the effectiveness of corporate philanthropy. However, in order to be effective, volunteer initiatives should be directed by the firm to ensure a strategic fit and focus on the core competencies of the firm. Therefore, internal marketing strategies are needed to ensure managers receive employee support. Our research quantitatively extends research by Peloza and Hassay (Journal of Business Ethics 64(4), 357–379, 2006) who argued that employee volunteerism is motivated by egoistic, altruistic and organizational citizenship motives. Our findings suggest that volunteer opportunities that fulfill egoistic and organizational citizenship motives will be effective, but that the altruistic motive is not significant. We also find that formal policies concerning manager recognition or time off are not effective, providing more discretion for individual managers. Implications for managers seeking to increase the effectiveness (and therefore support the business case) of their corporate philanthropy are discussed.     

New Paradigms in Stock Market Indexing

Considerable recent interest has been shown in a new set of stock‐market indices that are weighted by fundamental factors such as sales, earnings, dividends or book values, rather than by capitalization. In this paper, we analyze the performance of Fundamental Indexing? (“FI”). First, we show that the source of FI's recent excellent performance is not from its ability to systematically arbitrage mispricing in a noisy market but from increasing the portfolio's exposure to stocks with low price‐to‐book values and with small capitalizations. We find that FI does not produce a positive alpha when its excess returns are explained by the Fama‐French three‐factor model of CAPM beta, the value premium and the size premium. Second, we show that it is possible to construct a portfolio of exchange‐traded funds with similar factor loadings that can replicate, and sometimes, even outperform FI. However, we caution investors not to expect consistent outperformance from portfolios tilted towards value and small‐cap stocks. Historical data shows evidence of mean reversion in the performance of such strategies.     

POST‐TRANSITION POVERTY TRENDS BASED ON AN ALTERNATIVE DATA SOURCE1

This paper analyses a previously unused source of data – the All Media and Product Survey (AMPS) – to arrive at alternative estimates of the post‐transition poverty path. The motivations for using this non‐official data source are twofold: concern over the comparability of the existing official post‐transition datasets – the Income and Expenditure Survey (IES) and Population Census – and a desire to extend analysis of poverty trends beyond 2001. While official data sources are generally preferred for purposes of poverty analysis, the IES and Census collect data at long (5 or 10 year) intervals, and additional years pass before these datasets become available to the public. In some cases there is also concern about data comparability between surveys. The expenditure data contained in the General Household Survey are available annually, although data are captured in a small number of categories that are not very conducive to analysis at the lower end of the income distribution. Analysis on AMPS data confirms the large decline in poverty implied by an increase of R18 billion (in 2000 Rand) in social grant payments between 2000 and 2004. The direction of this trend is consistent with recent research findings based on more frequently analysed data sources, including the work done by Agüero, Carter and May (2005), Seekings (2006 ) and Meth (2006 ).     

A perspective on subjective probability for prediction and decision

The problem of assigning a meaningful subjective probability measure on a set of predictive models (inductive hypothesis) is considered. An outperformance construct is suggested as a means of reducing this to the more tractable task of assessing the distribution on a set of realizable events. Further issues on the precise interpretation of subjective probability estimation from the perspective of the decision-oriented forecaster are then considered.