Fiber in the backbone! The impact of broadband adoption on firm growth in network markets

This article examined the relationship between the adoption of technology, via the deployment of broadband, on revenue growth, which is an important measure of financial performance, of the deploying firms using panel data for all of the major local exchange carriers in the US telecommunications industry from 1988 to 2001. The sector is an important network market context where the implications of deployment have substantial salience. The results show a positive relationship between broadband deployment and carriers’ revenue growth. This result implies that encouraging the adoption and deployment of broadband technologies in addition to the benefits of the consumers and firms at the receiving end of the new technology create the potential for better financial performance for the deploying firms. These results also imply that steps that can be taken to provide incentives that will hasten the further deployment of broadband will result in gains in financial performance within the sector.     

Pareto optimality and competitive equilibrium in infinite horizon economies

The paper presents a general model of a decentralized economy evolving over an infinite time horizon. Alternative notions of price systems, competitive equilibria, efficiency and optimality are introduced. The main results characterize conditions under which the two fundamental theorems of welfare economics are valid in such a general framework.     

A note on closing the windows: Some lessons from queuing theory

Consider two departments of a government each serving customers of a particular type. We explore conditions under which a reorganization leading to both departments serving both types of customers leads to an enhancement of "efficiency" defined in terms of the expected queue size in a stochstic equilibrium.     

Forecasting Nevada gross gaming revenue and taxable sales using coincident and leading employment indexes

This article provides out-of-sample forecasts of Nevada gross gaming revenue (GGR) and taxable sales using a battery of linear and non-linear forecasting models and univariate and multivariate techniques. The linear models include vector autoregressive and vector error-correction models with and without Bayesian priors. The non-linear models include non-parametric and semi-parametric models, smooth transition autoregressive models, and artificial neural network autoregressive models. In addition to GGR and taxable sales, we employ recently constructed coincident and leading employment indexes for Nevada’s economy. We conclude that the non-linear models generally outperform linear models in forecasting future movements in GGR and taxable sales.     

On the determinants of non-market strategy: The separations mechanism and cost shifting in the telecommunications industry

This study examines the relationship between performance levels and the levels of cross-subsidy attained by local exchange carriers in the United States telecommunications industry. These cross-subsidies have been obtained by firms via their engagement in a separations mechanism, based on a cost allocation process, which telecommunications sector regulatory authorities use. Non-market strategies have assumed primacy in the activities of several sectors world-wide. Thus, understanding non-market strategic choices is important in the analysis of firms’ behavior and performance. Active engagement in the separations process is an important non-market strategy in the telecommunications industry, as a firm relatively successful in this activity can gain large cross-subsidies. The analysis establishes that less profitable firms obtain greater cross-subsidies. Once the profitability variable is decomposed into its two main components, which are productivity and price recovery, the impact of the profitability variable reduces. Firms which are relatively unproductive, as well as those unable to recover higher output prices, obtain relatively greater cross-subsidies. These results are inconsistent with the postulates of the strategic cost-allocation and behavior literatures but are consistent with x-inefficiency and rent-seeking perspectives of firms’ strategic actions.     

The Role of Current Account Balance in Forecasting the US Equity Premium: Evidence From a Quantile Predictive Regression Approach

The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether the current account balance can help in forecasting the quarterly S&P500-based equity premium out-of-sample. We consider an out-of-sample period of 1970:Q3 to 2014:Q4, with a corresponding in-sample period of 1947:Q2 to 1970:Q2. We employ a quantile predictive regression model. The quantile-based approach is more informative relative to any linear model, as it investigates the ability of the current account to forecast the entire conditional distribution of the equity premium, rather than being restricted to just the conditional-mean. In addition, we employ a recursive estimation of both the conditional-mean and quantile predictive regression models over the out-of-sample period which allows for time-varying parameters in the forecast evaluation part of the sample for both of these models. Our results indicate that unlike as suggested by the linear (mean-based) predictive regression model, the quantile regression model shows that the (changes in the) real current account balance contains significant out-of-sample information when the stock market is performing poorly (below the quantile value of 0.3), but not when the market is in normal to bullish modes (quantile value above 0.3). This result seems to be intuitive in the sense that, when the markets are performing average to well, that is performing around the median and above of the conditional distribution of the equity premium, the excess return is inherently a random-walk and hence, no information, from a predictor (changes in the real current account balance) is able to predict the equity premium.     

Optimal time to sell a stock in the Black–Scholes model: comment on ‘Thou shalt buy and hold’, by A. Shiryaev,Z. Xu and X.Y. Zhou

We reconsider the problem of the optimal time to sell a stock studied by Shiryaev et al. (2008 Shiryaev, A, Xu, Z and Zhou, XY. 2008. Thou shalt buy and hold. Quant. Finan., 8: 765–776. [Taylor & Francis Online], [Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar]) (following in this issue of Quantitative Finance) using path integral methods. These methods allow us to confirm the results obtained by these authors and extend them to the entire parameter region. We also obtain the full distribution of the time t_m at which the maximum of the price is reached for arbitrary values of the drift.