Measuring volatility with the realized range

Realized variance, being the summation of squared intra-day returns, has quickly gained popularity as a measure of daily volatility. Following Parkinson [1980. The extreme value method for estimating the variance of the rate of return. Journal of Business 53, 61–65] we replace each squared intra-day return by the high–low range for that period to create a novel and more efficient estimator called the realized range. In addition, we suggest a bias-correction procedure to account for the effects of microstructure frictions based upon scaling the realized range with the average level of the daily range. Simulation experiments demonstrate that for plausible levels of non-trading and bid–ask bounce the realized range has a lower mean-squared error than the realized variance, including variants thereof that are robust to microstructure noise. Empirical analysis of the S&P500 index-futures and the S&P100 constituents confirms the potential of the realized range.     

Inertial inflation, indexation and price stickiness: evidence from Brazil

This paper evaluates the inertial inflation hypothesis for Brazil. The hypothesis posits that indexation created a feedback mechanism such that one-time supply shocks were fully transmitted into permanent changes in inflation. A theoretical model is used to show that this outcome is based on the assumption of perfect price flexibility. However, with price stickiness indexation does not produce inertial inflation. The degree of inertia is then compared for two periods: one without indexation (1945–1963), and one with indexation (1969–1985). Finally, vector-autoregressive representations are estimated for the latter period, allowing for price stickiness. The empirical results do not support the hypothesis.     

A multi‐level panel STAR model for US manufacturing sectors

We introduce a multi‐level smooth transition model for a panel of time series, which can be used to examine the presence of common nonlinear business cycle features across many variables. The model is positioned in between a fully pooled model, which imposes such common features, and a fully heterogeneous model, which allows for unrestricted nonlinearity. We introduce a second‐stage model linking the parameters that determine the timing of the switches between business cycle regimes to observable explanatory variables, thereby allowing for lead–lag relationships across panel members. We discuss representation, estimation by concentrated simulated maximum likelihood and inference. We illustrate our model using quarterly industrial production in 19 US manufacturing sectors, and document that there are subtle differences across sectors in leads and lags for switches between business cycle recessions and expansions. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Reviews

“Urban unemployment”

Hasluck, C., 1987: Urban Unemployment: Local labour markets and employment initiatives. London, Longman, £6.95 paper.

“Property and industrial development”

Fothergill, S., Monk, S. and Perry, M. 1387: Property and Industrial Development London: Hutchinson, £12.95 paper.

“High-tech”

Breheny, M. J. and McQuaid, R. W. 1987: The Development of High Technology Industries: An International Survey. London: Croom Helm, £35.00.

Monde, C. (ed), 1986: Science Parks -- Their Contribution to Economic Growth. Birmingham: UK Science Parks Association, £15.00 paper.

“American perspectives”

Bergman, Edward M. Editor 1986: Local Economies in Transition: Policy Realities and Development Potentials. Durham, NC: Duke University Press, $40.00 cloth, $16.95, paper.

“Marginal regions”

O'Cearbhaill, D. and Cawley, M. (editors) 1986: New approaches to the development of Marginal Regions, 8th International Seminar on Marginal Regions in association with University College Galway, 3 Vote: no price stated.

“Training without jobs”

Finn, Dan 1987: Training Without Jobs:New Deals and Broken Promises:From Raising the School Leaving Age to the Youth Training Scheme. London: Macmillan £6.95.

“The coopera tive workplace”

Rothschild, J. and Whitt, A. J. 1986: The Cooperative Workplace: potentials and dilemmas of organizational democracy and participation. USA: American Sociological Association Rose Monograph Series, Cambridge University Press. No price stated.

“Opposition to plant closures”

Maunders, A. 1986: A Process of Struggle. Aldershot: Gower £20.00 cloth.

“Property data”

Investment Property Databank, 1987: The IPD Annual Review 1987 London, £45.

“Urban economic development”

Hausner.V. A. (editor) 1987: Critical Issues in Urban Economic Development. Volume II. Oxford: Clarendon Press, £22.50 hardback.     

Identifying contracts,combinations and conspiracies in restraint of trade

Antitrust guidelines rely on structural screens to review horizontal merger proposals for possible anti-competitive effects. This paper extends this screening approach to forecast where industry cartels will form, and where cartel agreements are more likely to raise price. I test the screen's reliability for a unique data set of legal, privately enforced industry cartels that formed under the Webb-Pomerene Export Trade Act. Consistent with screening assumptions, I find that cartels formed more frequently in industries with significant potential market power, high barriers to entry, and conditions facilitating the enforcement of agreements. However, these characteristics generally perform less well at distinguishing when cartels are likely to raise price without generating offsetting cost-savings, suggesting that screening is reliable only as a preliminary check for possible anti-competitive behavior.     

Does output have a unit root? New international evidence

In this paper unit-root tests for per capita output of 12 OECD countries are performed. Using traditional unit-root tests, it follows that the unit-root hypothesis cannot be rejected except for the US. However, following the approach of Perron (1989), which takes shifts in mean and/or trend into account, the null hypothesis of a unit-root can be rejected in most countries in our sample. In contrast to Perron, a method suggested by Christiano (1992)is used to determine the break date endogenously.