Prahu Shipping in Eastern Indonesia in The Interwar Period

During the interwar period, prahu (sail) shipping in Eastern Indonesia experienced first decline and then dramatic resurgence. This paper explains this pattern in terms of the interaction between competitive pressures from the modern sector and the impact of the Depression.     

Explaining Managed Trade as Rational Cheating

Postwar “managed-trade” policies feature low baseline tariffs combined with selective nontariff protection. This paper interprets managed trade as a rational strategy to undermine trade-liberalization agreements in the absence of credible external enforcement. Analyzing the Kennedy GATT Round, I explore the calculus that led the United States to undermine across-the-board tariff reductions selectively by introducing nontariff barriers in industries with rapidly rising import demand. I show empirically that nontariff barrier dynamics across 216 industries support a rational-cheating interpretation of managed-trade policy.     

Combining density forecasts using focused scoring rules

We investigate the added value of combining density forecasts focused on a specific region of support. We develop forecast combination schemes that assign weights to individual predictive densities based on the censored likelihood scoring rule and the continuous ranked probability scoring rule (CRPS) and compare these to weighting schemes based on the log score and the equally weighted scheme. We apply this approach in the context of measuring downside risk in equity markets using recently developed volatility models, including HEAVY, realized GARCH and GAS models, applied to daily returns on the S&P 500, DJIA, FTSE and Nikkei indexes from 2000 until 2013. The results show that combined density forecasts based on optimizing the censored likelihood scoring rule significantly outperform pooling based on equal weights, optimizing the CRPS or log scoring rule. In addition, 99% Value‐at‐Risk estimates improve when weights are based on the censored likelihood scoring rule.     

Book Reviews

Huib Foot, Arie Kuyvenhoven and Jaap Jansen, Industrialisation and Trade in Indonesia, Yogyakarta: Gadjah Mada University Press, 1990, pp. vii + 552.

W.L. Korthals Altes, General Trade Statistics, 1822–1940, Changing Economy in Indonesia, Volume 12a, Amsterdam: Royal Tropical Institute, 1991, pp. 200.

Adrian Clemens, J. Thomas Lindblad and Jeroen Touwen, Regional Patterns in Foreign Trade, 1911–1940, Changing Economy in Indonesia, Volume 12B, Amsterdam: Royal Tropical Institute, 1992, pp. 104.

BRIEFLY NOTED: Australian International Development Assistance Bureau, Introduction to Government Administration, Planning and Budgeting in Indonesia, Canberra: Aidab, 1991, pp. xxii + 60.

Helen Hughes (ed.), The Dangers of Export Pessimism: Developing Countries and Industrial Markets, San Francisco: International Center for Economic Growth, 1992, pp. xxvii + 446.

M.G. Asher el al., Fiscal Incentives and Economic Management in Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore, Singapore: Asian-Pacific Tax and Investment Research Centre, 1992, pp. viii + 133.

Hal Hill, Indonesia's Textile and Garment Industries: Developments in an Asian Perspective, Occasional paper no. 87, Singapore: Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 1992, pp. vi + 83.     

Notes And Communications

This communication sketches in headlines long term developments in American and European banking. Contrary to the expectation of both practitioners and theorists in the nineties, has the role of banks in the economy not diminished but increased. This is demonstrated by the long term increase of bank credit as a percentage of GDP (resulting in a stronger growth of M2 and 3 than GDP), a growing contribution of bank sector income to GDP, growing employment (until recently) and a growing share of bank shares in total market capitalisation over the past three decades until 2004–2006. This growing share may have been induced by a comparatively superior performance, supported by a relatively high dividend yield, despite a lower-than-average price-earning ratio. Banks counteracted increased competition and disintermediation tendencies in their traditional lending business by a progressive involvement in capital markets. They developed themselves, in several functions, these markets. For this reason the often used distinction between bank-based and market-based financial systems is less meaningful. Capital markets function thanks to banks. Even more because a rapidly growing volume of new, unlisted investment instruments are constructed by banks and traded over their counter. By this development the risk absorbing and intermediating function of banks – being their basic function in the financial system – is also accentuated. The professional capability of leading banks to fulfil this basic function has in the current “sub prime” crisis come under severe criticism.     

Cointegration in a historical perspective

We analyse the impact of the Engle and Granger (1987) article by means of its citations over time, and find evidence of a second life starting in the new millennium. Next, we propose a possible explanation of the success of this citation classic. We argue that the conditions for its success were just right at the time of its appearance, because of the growing emphasis on time series properties in econometric modelling, the empirical importance of stochastic trends, the availability of sufficiently long macroeconomic time series, and the availability of personal computers and econometric software for carrying out the new techniques.     

永远充满激情地创作

Mjchael Dee，我们的首席创意执行官与我一同参加了此次戛纳广告盛会。我们决定共同参加戛纳盛会的重要原因是要让大家看到DDB China Group一直都对创意有着严谨的态度。紧随此行的另一个计划是：我们已经宣布了一个内部奖励机制，任何获奖部门（包括创意部、客户部以及策划部）都将得到相应的奖励。此次戛纳之旅变得比我们想象中要“亲密”得多——由于广告节期间酒店紧张，我与Michael只能同住一个有两居室的酒店公寓．但就在Martinez旁。地理位置很优越，说起来也算幸运。     

Demand estimation and consumer welfare in the banking industry

This paper estimates a structural demand model for commercial bank deposit services in order to measure the effects on consumers given dramatic changes in bank services throughout US branching deregulation in the 1990s. Following the discrete choice literature, consumer decisions are based on prices and bank characteristics. Consumers are found to respond to deposit rates, and to a lesser extent, to account fees, in choosing a depository institution. Moreover, consumers respond favorably to the branch staffing and geographic density, as well as to the bank’s age, size, and geographic diversification. Consumers in most markets experience a slight increase in welfare throughout the period.     

European Views of Advertising

Abstract

The effects of brand beliefs and attitude-toward-the-ad (A_ad) on immediate and delayed measures of attitude-toward-the-brand (A_b)were investigated for individuals who were more- and less-involved with the message of a print advertisement. Results suggest A_ad's and brand beliefs' influence on immediate and delayed measures of A_b depend on individuals' involvement with the message. As expected, for individuals who are more-involved with an advertising message, both beliefs and A_ad influenced A_b. This relationship held even after a one-week delay. For those less-involved with the advertising message, however, beliefs had no significant influence on brand attitudes, measured immediately following advertising exposure or after a one-week delay. A_ad was shown to have a significant influence on brand attitudes in both time conditions. Implications for theory and practice, as well as directions for future research, are discussed.     

The Effect of Availability,Point of Purchase Advertising,and Sampling on Children's First Independent Food Purchases

The dramatic rise in childhood obesity has triggered great concern among parents, health providers and researchers, public policy makers and politicians. In a controlled experiment with 166 primary school children in Australia, this study investigates the effects of availability, point-of-purchase advertising and sampling on children's food preferences and their first independent food purchases. The results indicate that availability and point of purchase advertising has a significant effect on changing children's preferences. The effects of sampling, in the presence of other forms of promotion, are less clear. The implications of these findings for marketers and public-policy makers are discussed.