Measurement Bias in the HICP: What do we know and What do we need to know?

Abstract. The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is the primary measure of inflation in the euro area, and plays a central role in the policy deliberations of the European Central Bank (ECB). The ECB defines its Treaty mandate of price stability as '… a year‐on‐year increase in the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) for the euro area of below 2%[…] to be maintained over the medium term.' Among the rationales given for defining price stability as prevailing at some positive measured inflation rate is the possibility that the HICP as published incorporates measurement errors of one sort or another that may cause it to systematically overstate the true rate of inflation in the euro area. This paper reviews what currently is known about the scope of measurement error in the HICP. We conclude that given the vague conceptual framework of the HICP, the scant research on price measurement issues in the EU and the ongoing improvements in the HICP, there is very little scientific basis at this time for a point (or even an interval) estimate of a positive bias in the HICP.     

Innovation and productivity in agricultural firms: evidence from a country-wide farm-level innovation survey

ABSTRACT

The literature on the links between innovation and productivity at the firm level in agriculture is almost nonexistent. In this paper, we analyze the factors behind the innovation effort of farms and the impact that innovation effort has on farm’s productivity, exploiting a unique farm-level agricultural innovation survey carried out in Uruguay. The results indicate that farm size, cooperation with other agents to perform R&D, the education of the owner of the farm, the participation of foreign capital and the existence of links with other organizations, in particular scientific, horizontal and vertical ones, are positively correlated with innovation effort. Public and private financial support are not clearly linked with innovation effort. The innovation effort has a positive effect on farm’s productivity. Some heterogeneities across industries in agriculture are found.     

The Attractiveness of Wellness Destinations: An Importance–Performance–Satisfaction Approach

The attractiveness of tourism destinations is a topic of great interest to researchers and professionals wishing to understand the ability of destinations to attract and satisfy tourists. However, there is a lack of consensus on the attributes that could explain the attractiveness of destinations, attributes that can also vary according to the tourist product under analysis. An importance–performance–satisfaction approach is adopted, to identify the attributes that are important for tourists travelling to enjoy wellness vacations, assess the performance of Gran Canaria in those attributes and analyze the possible association between the performance of Gran Canaria and tourist satisfaction. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Business and management in China: A review of empirical research in leading international journals

Asia Pacific Journal of Management - China’s growing economic importance has led to a significant increase in the volume of empirical research about business and management in this country...     

A general equilibrium analysis of parental leave policies

Despite mandatory parental leave policies being a prevalent feature of labor markets in developed countries, their aggregate effects in the economy are not well understood. To assess their quantitative impact, we develop a general equilibrium model of fertility and labor market decisions that builds on the labor matching framework of Mortensen and Pissarides (1994). We find that females gain substantially with generous policies but this benefit occurs at the expense of a reduction in the welfare of males. Leave policies have important effects on fertility, leave taking decisions, and employment. These effects are mainly driven by how the policy affects bargaining – young females anticipate future states with higher threat points induced by the policy. Because the realization of these states depends on the decisions of females to give birth and take a leave, leave policies effectively subsidize fertility and leave taking. We also find that generous paid parental leaves can be an effective tool to encourage mothers to spend time with their children after giving birth.     

Dollarization persistence and individual heterogeneity

A salient feature of financial dollarization, arguably the one that causes most concern to policymakers, is its persistence: even after successful macroeconomic stabilizations, dollarization ratios often remain high. In this paper we argue that this persistence is connected to the fact that the participants in the dollar deposit market are fairly heterogenous, and so is the way they form their optimal currency portfolio. We develop a simple model when agents differ in their ability to process information, which turns out to be enough to generate persistence upon aggregation. We provide empirical evidence that is consistent with this claim.     

Extension services,product quality and yields: the case of grapes in Argentina

This article studies the impact of publicly subsidized agricultural extension services on yields and product quality. We use panel data from grape producers in Mendoza, Argentina to estimate the impacts of farmer trainings. We find a negative overall impact on yields and evidence of a positive average impact on the adoption of higher‐quality grape varieties. By analyzing the dynamic pattern of the estimated effects, we find evidence of a temporary decrease in yields suggesting the existence of an adjustment process following the introduction of higher‐quality grapes. The overall negative effect on yield is driven by a sharp drop in the year of participation. This fades after year one, and two to three years after treatment we observe increases in higher‐quality grape production. Findings reinforce the importance of temporal dimension of extension services.     

滇中城市群优化发展模式研究

本文以滇中城市群规划为例,结合中外合作编制《云南省滇中城市群规划》实践,采用多情景发展模拟,将GIS工具与传统规划手段紧密耦合,针对离散型、区域型、都市型、网络型四种发展模式进行情景分析,并从中探索适合滇中城市群未来发展的、相对合理的规划方案。最终得出一个阶段性发展方案,即在2030年以前滇中城市群以区域型模式为主导,2030年以后以网络型模式为主的发展模式,推进滇中地区稳步、有序发展,逐步实现生态安全、资源集约、经济繁荣三者高度统一。     

Estimating dynamic demand for airlines

This paper uses an original panel dataset with posted prices and sales to estimate a dynamic demand. We find that consumers become more price sensitive as time to departure nears which is consistent with having lower valuations. This result provides empirical support to a key theoretical implication in Deneckere and Peck (2012)—high-valuation consumers purchase earlier. We also find that the number of active consumers increases closer to departure.     

Auctions with heterogeneous entry costs

If bidders have independent private values and homogeneous entry costs, a first‐ or second‐price auction with a reserve price equal to the seller’s value maximizes social surplus and seller revenue. We show that if entry costs are heterogeneous and private information, then the revenue‐maximizing reserve price is above the seller’s value, a positive admission fee (and a reserve price equal to the seller’s value) generates more revenue, and an entry cap combined with an admission fee generates even more revenue. Social surplus and seller revenue may either increase or decrease in the number of bidders, but they coincide asymptotically.