呼唤深圳房地产的平稳健康发展

深圳房地产市场经过一年的调整,房价已经下跌将近40%。与此同时,受国内外经济严峻形势的影响,深圳整体经济也呈现明显的放缓迹象。为了保持深圳经济的持续健康稳定发展,房地产业应该脱离目前那种“剑客”当道,怪论充斥的舆论氛围,下大力通过制度建设、市场疏导、产业改革等措施,尽快走出目前的低迷态势,特别是有效恢复合理的成交量,确保市民的正常住房需求和深圳经济整体上的良性发展。     

The contribution of a satellite market to price discovery: Evidence from the Singapore exchange

The Singapore Exchange (SGX), a small satellite market, successfully competes with a large home market, the Osaka Securities Exchange (OSE), in trading the Nikkei 225 futures index. In this paper, we investigate the contribution of the SGX to price discovery and shed light on the reasons for its continued success. Evidence is provided from information revelation and price discovery of three competing but informationally linked markets of the Nikkei 225 index—domestic spot (Tokyo Stock Exchange), domestic futures (OSE), and foreign futures (SGX), which represents the satellite market. Overall, the futures market contributes 77% to price discovery, with the satellite market contributing 42% of the futures and 33% of the total price discovery. These figures, surprisingly, far exceed the satellite market's share of trading volume. Support is provided for the extended trading hours on the SGX for three of the four non‐overlapping trading sub‐periods. © 2004 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 24:981–1004, 2004     

台湾农业转型的主要历程、趋势与启示

本文分析了台湾农业转型发展三个阶段及其主要趋势，提出农业经济地位下降、农业相较于其他产业的弱势、农业人口减少是农业发展过程中的必然结果，而农业功能定位也必须多样化。     

China's regional income disparityAn alternative way to think of the sources and causes1

Using data on China's provincial economies for the period 1978–2005, we decomposed the causes and factors that have contributed to inter‐regional per capita income disparity. Variance in capital per employee and variance in capital elasticity are found to be the two main sources of income disparity while the employment–labour force ratio is shown to be an important factor in containing the rise of income disparity. An analysis on inter‐regional factor reallocation effects reveals their relatively small and insignificant contributions to overall growth performance. It is also discovered that capital has in most years flowed in the right direction to pursue higher marginal productivity across provincial economies. Inter‐provincial labour movement, on the other hand, had not displayed significant equilibrating effects until institutional reforms started to allow freer inter‐regional labour mobility in later years. Generally, we conclude that market‐oriented factor mobility has played a crucial role in equalizing factor returns as well as enhancing growth efficiency across regions.     

Bid‐ask spreads,volatility, quote revisions,and trades of thinly traded futures contracts

We investigate intraday bid‐ask spreads (BAS), volatility, and trading activity of thinly traded equity index futures contracts on the Singapore Exchange. Contrary to previous findings, we find a rather flat BAS pattern during the trading day. However, consistent with past findings, an increase in risk widens the spread and a higher trading activity reduces it. When trading occurs in a day, spreads are reduced. No significant difference in volatility between days with and without trades was detected. When trades occur, quote revisions increase, and it is positively related to the number of trades. An increase in the number of quote revisions increases the likelihood of a transaction, and when quotes are current, revisions that are accompanied by trades carry new information. We provide evidence that contracts that are thinly traded may possess liquidity attributes as long as their price quotes remain current. © 2003 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 23:455–486, 2003     

企业创新性的若干表征:自制造业观察

近年来,特别是加入WTO以来,我国企业面临着越来越激烈的市场竞争。加大自主创新力度、提高技术水平是保持企业发展的必由之路。利用2005年我国全部国有及规模以上制造业企业数据,从多个角度对我国企业自主创新强度进行了详细分析,结果表明:创新强度在不同行业、不同所有制类别和不同隶属关系的企业之间存在显著差异,但在不同地域的企业间不存在显著差异。从税收减免、研发补贴等方面加强对集体企业、私营企业和乡镇企业的创新支持,是提高我国企业自主创新能力的可行路径。     

我国农民工返乡创业关注度的空间格局——基于2011—2014年百度指数的分析

随着东部地区产业升级转型以及中西部地区社会经济环境的改善,农民工返乡创业现象愈发普遍。文章以百度指数为数据来源,弥补官方统计欠缺的不足,讨论农民工返乡创业关注度的变化趋势,分析农民工返乡创业关注度在三大经济地带、各省区市、典型省份内部等不同地域尺度的地区差异,并运用空间统计的方法,分析该指数的空间自相关性,并旨在以此为基础,探讨如何发挥网络数据分析在政策决策中的作用与价值。     

土地供应方式转变对房价的影响

中国城市土地供应方式经历了由无偿划拨到有偿出让,从协议出让到招拍挂出让的转变历程,当前招拍挂已经成为经营性用地的唯一出让方式。在地方政府"土地财政"的利益驱动下,土地单一垄断供应体制下的"招拍挂"土地出让方式已经成为影响房价上涨的重要因素之一。要遏制房价过快上涨的势头,应从根源上切断地方政府在房地产市场中的利益链条。     

中央休闲区:深圳南山中心区的合理定位

目前深圳南山商业文化中心的定位是“南山区中心区”和“深圳次级中央商务区”。这两个定位都是值得商榷的。应该从全深圳乃至珠三角的区域发展战略出发,从南山的优势条件出发,定位为深圳的中央休闲区。应该丢掉CBD的固有思维,重点引进都市文化型的超级文化产业战略投资项目和投资者,把南山商业文化中心真正打造成深圳最具影响力的文化休闲活动中心。     

中国商品房价格长期上行的政策性因素分析

本文从政策学的角度,采用实证分析的方法,剖析了1998～2008年中国商品房价格以及相关变量之间的联动走势和政策性成因。文中提出,商品房价格后期的持续走高背离了市场的真实价值,其政策性原因是对土地总量的行政化控制、以及金融稀缺资源向购房市场的倾斜。本文认为,通过实行土地供应量与房价指数联动机制、以及灵活运用货币政策等组合手段,未来中国商品房价格可能呈现高位窄幅震荡、缓慢上升的趋势。