Samuelson and Davidson on ergodicity: A reformulation

The concept of ergodicity in economics seems to have the qualities of a shibboleth—a word or saying used by adherents of a party, sect, or belief, and usually regarded by others as empty of real meaning. It is in use by both neoclassical economics—after Samuelson (1965 Samuelson, P. A. “Proof That Properly Anticipated Prices Fluctuate Randomly.” Industrial Management Review, 1965, 6 (2), 41–49.[Web of Science ®] , [Google Scholar], p. 43), who used the term in his paper on what later became a foundation of the efficient market hypothesis—and post Keynesian economics—after Davidson, who picked up the term in order to highlight methodological differences. Considering the origin of the concept in statistical physics and its use in the topology of dynamical systems, which most economists are not conversant with, the importance ascribed to ergodicity in economic debate seems mystifying. We deconstruct the meaning of the term in the major contributions of Samuelson and Davidson. We suggest an alternative to (non)ergodicity to discuss the nature of randomness in the real world. While neoclassical theory assumes stochastic randomness, post Keynesians assume nonstochastic randomness, a term developed by the mathematician Kolmogorov (1986 Kolmogorov, A.N. “On the Logical Foundations of Probability Theory.” In K. Ito, and J.V. Prokhorov (eds.), Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Moscow, 1986, pp. 467–471. [Google Scholar], p. 467). We argue that even in an ergodic world there is a problem with the idea that stochastic randomness can be dealt with by the financial system.     

Return patterns of South Korean stocks following large price shocks

This study tests the market efficiency of the South Korean stock market by examining returns on stocks of the constituents of the KOSPI 50 from 2000 to 2014 following large 1-month price decreases and increases. An exponential GARCH (EGARCH) event study framework is used to analyse the stock returns. The results show that large price shocks, positive and negative, are likely to be followed by positive market returns. Moreover, the results show an increase in the beta of stocks in the years following a large price shock. The overall results therefore support the Uncertain Information Hypothesis. However, beginning in 2008, return patterns more closely reflect those hypothesised by the Efficient Market Hypothesis, possibly due to increased participation by international investors. The observed returns following large price increases and decreases can be partially explained by changes in the Korean won to US dollar exchange rate and the trading behaviour of foreign investors.     

The Extent and Evolution of Productivity Deficiency in Eastern Germany

Since the German re-unification in 1990, Eastern Germany has been a transition economy. After a phase of catching up in productivity with Western Germany from 1991 to 1996, growth rates in the producing sector have dropped below those in Western Germany since 1997. This study investigates whether this macroeconomic picture holds at the microeconomic level. For the special case of Eastern Germany, I suggest identifying productivity gaps by using comparable Western German firms as a “productivity benchmark”. Applying an econometric matching procedure allows to study the productivity gap at the firm level in detail. Besides labor and capital, other factors like innovation and firm ownership are taken into account. The macroeconomic facts are broadly confirmed: a significant gap has remained in recent years. Moreover, Eastern German innovators perform worse than their Western German pendants, and firms owned by Western German or foreign companies perform better than those owned by Eastern German entities.     

Ownership Concentration,Institutional Development and Firm Performance in Central and Eastern Europe

This paper analyzes the relationship of ownership concentration and firm performance in the context of different institutional environments in 28 Central and Eastern European transition economies. We focus on private, non‐listed firms that have been largely neglected by the extant literature. Using the BEEPS data for the period from 2002 to 2009 we find an inverted u‐shaped relation of ownership concentration and firm performance for those firms that operate in non‐EU‐member countries as well as those firms that are situated in less developed institutional systems. We interpret these findings as evidence for a classic agency problem in the lower part of the ownership concentration distribution that is dominated by a ‘private benefits of control’ problem with rising ownership concentration. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

When affective well-being is empowered: the joint role of leader-member exchange and the employment relationship

HRM and the leader are often assumed to play a joint role in affecting employee reactions. In a multilevel, time-lagged study, we examined the joint role of the employment relationship and leader-member exchange (LMX). We tested whether this joint role is essential to when LMX leads to affective well-being via psychological empowerment. We build on HRM literature to expect that the relationship of LMX with psychological empowerment is stronger when the employment relationship is consistent with LMX quality. Results indicated that psychological empowerment mediates the relationship between LMX and affective well-being. This mediation is stronger for employees in a mutual investment employment relationship. The findings point at the importance of consistency of resources from the employment relationship and LMX. Nevertheless, the findings also suggest that resources from LMX compensate for employment relationships with low resources. Our findings contribute to scholars’ understanding of the joint role of HRM systems and leader behaviors.     

从日本和德国经验看低利率环境对寿险公司的影响

世界各国央行针对近来的金融危机采取的应对策略是大规模增加流动性,并且将关键利率降至历史低位,希望能够刺激国内经济并启动通货膨胀。 如图1所示,这一策略已导致日本和数个欧洲国家出现负利率。     

Maximum effort in the minimum-effort game

We report results from standard minimum-effort experiments conducted in Copenhagen (Denmark). Our subjects frequently coordinate on the Pareto-efficient equilibrium even in groups of six. This is in stark contrast to the previous literature, as we show in a detailed analysis of experiments which had the same design but were held in different countries. The subject-pool effect is substantiated by the finding that, the higher the share of Danish subjects in a group, the higher the minimum-effort levels. These findings suggest that the prevalent coordination failures previously observed are affected by significant subject-pool effects.