Are Returns to Investment Lower for the Poor? Human and Physical Capital Interactions in Rural Vietnam

If the gains from investment depend on knowledge, but households cannot hire skills, then poorly educated households will achieve lower returns than educated ones. If the income‐poor are less well educated, then they will also have lower returns to investment. The paper tests this argument for the case of irrigation in Vietnam, a setting where existing irrigation can be treated as exogenous at the household level with appropriate controls for the determinants of facility placement. Strong complementarities between household education and irrigation expansion suggest that, unless disparities in education are redressed, reforms will generate an inequitable growth process in Vietnam.     

Option pricing with discrete time jump processes

In this paper we propose new option pricing models based on class of models with jumps contained in the Lévy-type based models (NIG-Lévy, Schoutens, 2003, Merton-jump, Merton, 1976 and Duan based model, Duan et al., 2007). By combining these different classes of models with several volatility dynamics of the GARCH type, we aim at taking into account the dynamics of financial returns in a realistic way. The associated risk neutral dynamics of the time series models is obtained through two different specifications for the pricing kernel: we provide a characterization of the change in the probability measure using the Esscher transform and the Minimal Entropy Martingale Measure. We finally assess empirically the performance of this modelling approach, using a dataset of European options based on the S&P 500 and on the CAC 40 indices. Our results show that models involving jumps and a time varying volatility provide realistic pricing and hedging results for options with different kinds of time to maturities and moneyness. These results are supportive of the idea that a realistic time series model can provide realistic option prices making the approach developed here interesting to price options when option markets are illiquid or when such markets simply do not exist.     

The future of food demand: understanding differences in global economic models

Understanding the capacity of agricultural systems to feed the world population under climate change requires projecting future food demand. This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). We compare food demand projections in 2050 for various regions and agricultural products under harmonized scenarios of socioeconomic development, climate change, and bioenergy expansion. In the reference scenario (SSP2), food demand increases by 59–98% between 2005 and 2050, slightly higher than the most recent FAO projection of 54% from 2005/2007. The range of results is large, in particular for animal calories (between 61% and 144%), caused by differences in demand systems specifications, and in income and price elasticities. The results are more sensitive to socioeconomic assumptions than to climate change or bioenergy scenarios. When considering a world with higher population and lower economic growth (SSP3), consumption per capita drops on average by 9% for crops and 18% for livestock. The maximum effect of climate change on calorie availability is ?6% at the global level, and the effect of biofuel production on calorie availability is even smaller.     

Prosumer's commitment model: The case of a biodiesel cooperative

Consumers are becoming more aware of their role in the propagation of environmental issues, the transition from passive consumer to prosumer is emerging, and it is of interest to know the commitment factors that leads the biodiesel prosumer to act in favor of an organization which they belong in order to achieve one goal in common and contribute to local sustainable development. In this research, the prosumer is the one who participates as a member and consumer of a biodiesel cooperative. The prosumer's commitment is made up of two components: (i) nonactive or affective, identification with the organization, and (ii) active or participatory, action towards certain goals. The objectives of the investigation are to evaluate the biodiesel prosumer's commitment and know its causes and effects. The hypotheses on the causes and results of the prosumer's commitment are postulated in a structural equation model (SEM), whose theoretical basis corresponds to the double role of the prosumer: member and client of the cooperative. The SEM is evaluated from the perspective of the prosumer based on mixed methodology and partial least square (PLS). The proposed SEM explains 78% (R² = 0.78) of the variability of the contribution of the biodiesel cooperative to local sustainable development, where this contribution is directly and significantly impacted by the two components of the commitment. This case study identifies dimensions that lead the biodiesel prosumer to commit in the cocreation and consumption of renewable fuel, which gives more opportunities for long-term survival of this initiative in a competitive market.     

Tres escenarios para el futuro del trabajo

Tras pasar revista a la evolución del concepto de trabajo a lo largo de la historia y a las diferentes acepciones que se han dado al término en el curso de los siglos, la autora analiza la relación que mantienen los europeos con ese valor, así como el impacto en el trabajo y el empleo del actual discurso en boga sobre la revolución tecnológica y sus consecuencias «ineluctables». A continuación, considera el futuro del trabajo a la luz de tres escenarios, a saber, el «desmantelamiento del derecho del trabajo», la «revolución tecnológica» (que postula el fin del empleo debido a la automatización) y la «reconversión ecológica», último modelo compatible no solo con el imperativo medioambiental, sino también con las expectativas asociadas al trabajo y el empleo.     

Kick‐starting diffusion: Explaining the varying frequency of preferential trade agreements’ environmental provisions by their initial conditions

Most recent preferential trade agreements (PTAs) include environmental provisions. While a number of these environmental provisions remain rare and are incorporated in just a few PTAs, others are widely popular and are duplicated in more than 100 PTAs. We still lack a convincing explanation for this varying frequency. While the diffusion literature typically tries to explain how diffusion occurs, we investigate why certain provisions diffuse more often than others. We hypothesise that the initial conditions under which provisions first emerge determine the scope of their diffusion. Our results support this hypothesis and indicate that provisions originating from intercontinental agreements diffuse more often than others. At the same time, provisions first designed by economically powerful or environmentally credible countries are not related to more frequent occurrences of diffusion. These findings are of interest for the literatures on international institutions' design, interaction and diffusion.     

Further Support for Ranking Candidates in Elections

We compare the Condorcet Efficiencies of the plurality rule, the negative plurality rule, and the Borda rule to examine what might be gained by using a voting rule that requires candidate rankings. Previous analyses have considered (1) voting situations for which the three rules determine different candidates as winners (and the Condorcet Efficiencies might actually differ across the three rules) as well as (2) refined measures of Group Mutual Coherence that assess the presence of underlying models of rational behavior that governs voter preferences. In this paper, we present the final step of this particular line of analysis by analyzing (1) and (2) simultaneously. We conclude that there is a considerable benefit on the basis of Condorcet Efficiency from asking voters to submit candidate rankings in three-candidate elections.     

The relative importance of some causes of unemployment: The case of West Germany

Zusammenfassung Die relative Bedeutung einiger Ursachen der Arbeitslosigkeit. Der Fall Bundesrepublik Deutschland. - Der Aufsatz untersucht verschiedene Ursachen der Arbeitslosigkeit (aggregierte Nachfrage, Faktorkosten, strukturelle Ver?nderungen und institutionelle Faktoren) in Westdeutschland zwischen 1973 und 1983. Es werden Gleichungen für die Zug?nge und Abg?nge in der Arbeitslosenstatistik nach M?nnern und Frauen getrennt gesch?tzt. Dann werden die Ergebnisse für Simulationen der aktuellen und station?ren Arbeitslosenrate benutzt. Es zeigt sich, da\ Angebotsschocks verbunden mit Lohnrigidit?t und Mangel an ausl?ndischer Nachfrage die Ursachen eines gro\en Teils der Arbeitslosigkeit sind. Der Strukturwandel ist ein weniger bedeutender Faktor, und die ⋯natürliche” Arbeitslosenrate ist für beide Gruppen im letzten Jahrzehnt angestiegen.

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Résumé L’importance relative de quelques causes du ch?mage: le cas de l’Allemagne de l’Ouest. - Dans ce papier l’auteur analyse quelques types de causes du ch?mage (demande totale, co?ts des facteurs, changements structurels, facteurs institutionnels) pour la RFA entre 1973 et 1983. Elle estime des équations pour les flux dans et hors du ch?mage pour des hommes et femmes séparément. Puis elle applique les résultats pour simuler le niveau actuel et le taux stationnaire du ch?mage. Elle démontre que les chocs d’offre accompagnés par la rigidité salariale et la déficience de la demande étrangère sont à la source d’une grande proportion du ch?mage. Des changements structurels sont un facteur mineur, et le taux naturel a accr? pour les deux groupes pendant la décade dernière.

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Resumen La importancia relativa de algunas causas de desempleo: el caso de Alemania Occidental. - En este trabajo se analizan varias causas de desempleo (demanda agregada, costo de factores, cambios estructurales y factores institucionales) en Alemania Occidental entre 1973 y 1983. Se estiman ecuaciones para la entrada y la salida de la situación de desempleo por separado para hombres y mujeres. Los resultados son utilizados para simular el nivel actual de desempleo y la tasa estacionaria de desempleo. Se demuestra que shocks de oferta junto con rigidez salarial y una deficiente demanda agregada extranjera son responsables de una gran parte del desempleo. Cambios estructurales son sóolo un factor menor; la tasa natural de desempleo ha aumentado para ambos sexos en la úultima década.

     

The gender earnings gap: effects of institutions and firms--a comparative study of French and Australian private firms

This paper uses two employer-employee linked data sets to investigatethe interactive role of labour market institutions and firmwage policies on the gender earnings gap. Extending the Juhnet al. (1991) decomposition methodology, a new decompositionmethodology is proposed to investigate the role of firm wagepolicies on the gender earnings gap. Two countries with differentwage bargaining systems, Australia and France, are used to conducta comparative study. It is found that firm wage policies inAustralia play a much larger role in narrowing the gender earningsgaps than in France. This is mainly due to the fact that Australiahas a more decentralised wage bargaining system and that suchsystem is operated under an environment where there is a strongunion presence.