Preponderance of evidence

This paper investigates the incentive properties of the standard of proof for a finding of negligence when evidence about injurers’ behavior is imperfect. We show that a “more-likely-than-not” decision rule provides maximal incentives for potential tort-feasors to exert care. An injurer is then held liable whenever inadequate care appears more likely than due care, and not liable otherwise. Our analysis provides a deterrence rationale for the exclusionary rules of evidence found in common law and the preponderance of evidence standard of proof.     

A Micro‐Decomposition Analysis of Aggregate Human Development Outcomes*

We show how differences in aggregate human development outcomes over time and space can be additively decomposed into a pure mean income (growth) component, a component attributed to differences in the distribution of income, and components attributed to ‘non‐income’ factors and differences in the model linking outcomes to income and non‐income characteristics. The income effect at the micro level is modelled non‐parametrically, so as to flexibly reflect potentially complex distributional changes. Our proposed method is illustrated using data for Morocco and Vietnam, and the results offer some surprising insights into the observed aggregate gains in schooling attainments.     

Regional integration in Asia and its effects on the EU and North America

Consequences of free-trade agreements (FTAs) among the ASEAN+3 and ASEAN+6 countries are explored using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Quantitative assessments of intra- and extra-regional effects on welfare, trade and output are offered. When both trade facilitation and endogenously determined productivity are included in the FTA scenarios, Singapore, other ASEAN countries and China would be able to realize relatively large welfare gains, while the welfare effects on the EU and North America are negligible. The trade and output effects on the latter two regions are also relatively small, with the notable exception of crops, other than rice, in North America.     

Impediments to innovation faced by Canadian manufacturing firms

Using the findings of the 1999 Survey of Innovation in the Canadian manufacturing sector, we analyse the impediments, i.e. the problems and obstacles, that firms in the sector face when they innovate. In particular, we assess the factors which inhibit innovation, especially with regard to by small and medium enterprises (SMEs). First we try to establish the relationship between the impediments to innovation and various firm characteristics. Then we assess whether these impediments actually prevent firms from innovating or whether firms are able to overcome them.

We find that the perception of impediments to innovation vary according to firm characteristics. For example, large firms are more likely to report the high cost of developing innovation and organizational rigidities as impediments than small firms. However, they seem to have less difficulty with regard to financing innovation projects compared to SMEs. Our results also show that firms seem to be able to overcome most of the obstacles to innovation. Therefore, the impediments featured in innovation survey(s) should not be interpreted as impenetrable barriers that prevent innovation. The sole exception is organizational rigidities. Firms facing organizational rigidities are less likely to become innovative, whether they are small, medium, or large. From our results, we conclude that small firms do not face particular impediments which prevent them from becoming innovative.     

Climate Change Policy Options for Asian Economies: Findings from an Integrated Assessment Model

This study outlines potential futures for the global economy through the 2050 with a specific focus on the countries of Asia. With underlying assumptions about population and output growth, a baseline scenario assesses the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and the ensuing impacts on the climate. Under the baseline scenario, Asia's high growth leads to a strong rotation in global output and emissions by the year 2050. The analytical framework traces back the changes in temperature to economic damages – limited to the agricultural sectors. Parts of Asia are likely to see much higher dependence on food imports as a consequence of these damages. Various carbon tax scenarios are implemented to assess the potential for reducing carbon emissions. Because of the structure of their economies, Asian countries are likely to bear the greatest burden in reducing emissions in an efficient global tax scheme, but there is significant scope to ease this burden through financial transfers.     

INCENTIVE CONTRACTS AND TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY*

We propose a transactions cost theory of total factor productivity (TFP). In a world with asymmetric information and transactions costs, productivity must be induced by incentive schemes. Labor contracts trade off marginal benefits and costs of effort. The latter include, in addition to the workers' marginal disutility of effort, organizational costs and rents. As the economy grows, contracts change endogenously, inducing higher effort and productivity. Transactions costs are also affected by societal characteristics that determine the power of incentives. Differences in these characteristics may explain cross‐economy productivity differences. Numerical experiments demonstrate the model's consistency with time‐series and cross‐country observations.     

Exchange rate pass-through and rivalry in the Swiss automobile market

Exchange Rate Pass-Through and Rivalry in the Swiss Automobile Market. —This paper investigates the pricing rivalry among foreign automobile producers in the Swiss market. The main results from the dynamic analysis of two categories of automobiles between 1977 and 1991 are: First, the degree of exchange rate pass-through differs among source-countries despite the absence of quantitative restrictions on imports and of domestic production facilities. However, for some countries, pricing strategies show remarkable consistency across product categories and time spans. Second, the degree of exchange rate pass-through is low, especially in the market for small-size automobiles. Third, this low degree of pass-through may be attributed to a low degree of competition among foreign sellers.