Testing conditional asset pricing models: An emerging market perspective

The CAPM as the benchmark asset pricing model generally performs poorly in both developed and emerging markets. We investigate whether allowing the model parameters to vary improves the performance of the CAPM and the Fama–French model. Conditional asset pricing models scaled by conditioning variables such as Trading Volume and Dividend Yield generally result in small pricing errors. However, a graphical analysis reveals that the predictions of conditional models are generally upward biased. We demonstrate that the bias in prediction may be the consequence of ignoring frequent large variation in asset returns caused by volatile institutional, political and macroeconomic conditions. This is characterised by excess kurtosis. An unconditional Fama–French model augmented with a cubic market factor performs the best among some competing models when local risk factors are employed. Moreover, the conditional models with global risk factors scaled by global conditioning variables perform better than the unconditional models with global risk factors.     

Using screen video capture software to aide and inform cognitive interviewing

Web-based surveys are a salient tool in the repertoire of social and behavioral scientists. The increase in web-based surveys is understandable considering the distinct advantages offered, including: (a) lower costs and reduced labor time, (b) ability to directly transfer data into statistical packages (reducing coding errors), (c) customization options enabling more attractive presentation, (d) ability to reduce respondent burden by embedding skip patterns, and (e) access to larger sample sizes in different geographic regions. It is important to note, however, that administering web-based surveys also introduces distinct sources of error (e.g., coverage, sampling and non-response). Regardless of format (e.g., paper-and-pencil or web-based), specific, prescribed steps must be followed when constructing an instrument in order to reduce survey error and lend credence to the data collected before subsequent analysis is performed. One of those crucial stages integral to the pretesting process is cognitive interviewing. Cognitive interviewing is a qualitative process, encompassing two main techniques: think aloud interviewing and verbal probing. Collectively, these two methods seek to (a) produce information on what the respondent is thinking while answering the questions, (b) the cognitive processes used to answer the questions, and (c) how the respondent answers the questions. The purpose of this article is to provide a practical guide outlining how Camtasia, a screen video capture software, can aide and inform the cognitive interview process.     

Is British output growth related to its uncertainty? Evidence using eight centuries of data

We examine the empirical relationship between output variability and output growth for Britain using data for eight centuries covering the 1270 to 2014 period. Drawing on the economic history literature, we split the full sample period into four subperiods and use GARCH models to measure output growth uncertainty and estimate its effect on average growth. Within each sub-sample, we allow output growth to depend on the state of the system, for example 2-regime switching model would switch between high-growth and low-growth regimes. We find that the effect of uncertainty on growth differs depending on the existing growth regime. Low-growth regimes are associated with a negative effect of uncertainty on growth, and medium or high-growth regimes are associated with a positive effect. These findings are consistent across the four states of economic development. Our results indicate why the empirical literature to date has found mixed results when examining the effect of uncertainty on growth.     

Garbage and Recycling with Endogenous Local Policy

This paper estimates the impact of garbage fees and curbside recycling programs on garbage and recycling amounts. Without correction for endogenous policy, a price per bag of garbage has a negative effect on garbage and a positive cross-price effect on recycling. Correction for endogenous local policy increases the effect of the user fee on garbage and the effect of curbside recycling collection on recycling. Introducing a fee of $1 per bag is estimated to reduce garbage by 412 pounds per person per year (44%), but to increase recycling by only 30 pounds per person per year.     

Emerging patterns of complex technological innovation

Technological innovation is increasingly concerned with complex products and processes. The trend toward greater complexity is suggested by the fact that in 1970 complex technologies comprised 43% of the 30 most valuable world goods exports, but by 1996 complex technologies represented 84% of those goods. These technologies are innovated by self-organizing networks. Networks are those linked organizations that create, acquire, and integrate the diverse knowledge and skills required to innovate complex technologies. Accessing tacit knowledge (i.e., experienced-based, unwritten know-how) and integrating it with codified knowledge is a particular strength of many networks. Self-organization refers to the capacity networks have for reordering themselves into more complex structures (e.g., replacing individual managers with management teams), and for using more complex processes (e.g., evolving strategies) without centralized, detailed managerial guidance. Case studies of the innovation pathways traced by six complex technologies indicate that innovations can be grouped into three quite distinct patterns. Transformation: the launching of a new trajectory by a new coevolving network and technology. Normal: the coevolution of an established network and technology along an established trajectory. Transition: the coevolutionary movement to a new trajectory by an established network and technology. Policy makers and managers face the greatest challenge during those periods of movement from one innovation trajectory to another. These are periods of turbulence; they are the embodiment of Schumpeter's “gales of creative destruction.” This paper investigates how, in six case studies, core capabilities, complementary assets, organizational learning, path dependencies, and the selection environment varied among the innovation patterns. The paper builds on work reported in a recent book by the authors entitled: The Complexity Challenge: Technological Innovation for the 21st Century, Pinter, London, 1999.     

Futures Contracts in Water Leasing: An Experimental Analysis Using Basin Characteristics of the Rio Grande,NM

Providing for increased water demands during periods of persistent drought and climatic variability may require water managers, users and planners to think differently about how water resources are allocated. A water marketing institution that allows water rights holders to reallocate water on a temporary basis could overcome these challenges with minimal conflict. In this paper, a water marketing institution that allows for the temporary reallocation of water rights in a spot and futures market is investigated. The results provide insight into three key questions: (1) how does trading impact the physical system, (2) does the value of water differ by trading agents, (3) how is economic welfare redistributed as a result of trading? Results of experimental treatments display minor impacts to the physical system, that prices differ across the different type of trading agents and the addition of a futures market has the ability to decrease market prices while increasing economic welfare as a futures market allows users to hedge against future water uncertainty.     

Does connectedness improve SMEs’ access to formal finance? Evidence from post-communist economies

Evidence suggests that a disproportionately greater share of formal finance is channelled to large enterprises in emerging economies, limiting the flow of appropriately-financed small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Market and information imperfections are conventionally seen as major causes of this misallocation. However, the role of political factors in affecting the distribution of formal finance has become more widely acknowledged in recent times. Our analyses of SMEs in post-communist economies also show that measures of political connectedness improve the chances of receiving bank credit and that the benefits of these links are stronger for well-established and larger SMEs.     

The loan structure and housing tenure decisions in an equilibrium model of mortgage choice

The objective of this paper is to understand how loan structure affects (i) the borrower's selection of a mortgage contract and (ii) the aggregate economy. We develop a quantitative equilibrium theory of mortgage choice where households can choose from a menu of long-term (nominal) mortgage loans. The model accounts for observed patterns in housing consumption, ownership, and portfolio allocations. We find that the loan structure is a quantitatively significant factor in a household's housing finance decision. The model suggests that the mortgage structure preferred by a household is dependent on age and income and that loan products with low initial payments offer an alternative to mortgages with no downpayment. These effects are more important when inflation is low. The presence of inflation reduces the real value of the mortgage payment and the outstanding loan over time reducing mobility. Changes in the structure of mortgages have implications for risk sharing.