“Modeling the impact of wars and terrorism on tourism demand in Kurdistan region of Iraq”

Portuguese Economic Journal - Recent political instabilities in the Middle East have led to strong negative impacts on the tourism sector. The aim of this study is to investigate the extent and the...     

Inflation Targeting and Inflation Uncertainty

This article empirically investigates the impact of inflation targeting on inflation uncertainty. We implement PARCH and GARCH methodologies to model conditional variance of inflation. We also investigate the relationship between level and volatility of inflation to analyze the validity of the Friedman hypothesis for IT countries. We find that most of the inflation targeting countries have significantly lower inflation variances after inflation targeting. In most of the IT countries, the relationship is consistent with the Friedman hypothesis.     

Prediction of bank financial strength ratings: The case of Turkey

Bank financial strength ratings have gained widespread popularity especially after the recent financial turmoil. Rating agencies were criticized because of their ratings and failure to predict the bankruptcy of the banks. Based on this observation, we investigate whether the forecast of the rating of bank's financial strength using publicly available data is consistent with those of the credit rating agency. We use the data of Turkish banks for this investigation. We take a country-specific approach because previous studies found that proxies used for environmental factors (political, economic, and financial risk of the country) did not have any explanatory power and it is hard to find international data for other important factors such as franchise value, concentration, and efficiency. We use two popular multivariate statistical techniques (multiple discriminant analysis and ordered logistic regression) to estimate a suitable model and we compare their performances with those of two mostly used data mining techniques (Support Vector Machine and Artificial Neural Network). Our results suggest that our predictions are consistent with those of Moody's financial strength rating in general.. The important factors in rating are found to be profitability (measured by return on equity), efficient use of resources, and funding the businesses and the households instead of the government that shows efficient placement of the funds.     

All-pay war

We study a model of conflicts and wars in which the outcome is uncertain not because of luck on the battlefield as in standard models, but because countries lack information about their opponent. In this model expected resource levels and production and military technologies are common knowledge, but realized resource levels are private information. Each country decides how to allocate its resources to production and warfare. The country with the stronger military wins and receives aggregate production. In equilibrium both comparative and absolute advantages matter: a larger resource share is allocated to warfare by the country with a comparative advantage in warfare at relatively low realized resource levels, and by the country with an absolute disadvantage in warfare at relatively high realized resource levels. From an ex-ante perspective the country with a comparative advantage in warfare is more likely to win the war unless its military potential is much lower.     

Knowledge,technological convergence and economic growth: a dynamic panel data analysis of Middle East and North Africa and Latin America

Quality & Quantity - This paper aims to investigate the role of various knowledge indicators, such as research and development, information and communication technologies and trade, in the...     

Business process management in hotels: with a focus on delivering quality guest service

Quality & Quantity - In this study business process management as a tool of improvement service quality is introduced and it is examined that how it can be used to improve service quality in...     

The prioritisation of service dimensions in logistics centres: a fuzzy quality function deployment methodology

This study takes a customer focus that prioritises the service-offering dimensions of logistics centres (LCs) by considering potential LC customer expectations. Applying a survey and a quality function deployment methodology to logistics service providers, the study explores, categorises and prioritises LC customer expectations and LC service characteristics. The results indicate that customer preferences mainly prioritise infrastructure, and warehouse and intermodal dimensions. However, when the cost dimension is included, higher utility values are delivered through soft service dimensions like value-added or standard services. LC investors or undertakers can use these results to guide their design of market offerings by using the same methodology to assess expectations in their target markets.     

The demand for agricultural land and strategic bidding in auctions

A unique feature of land auctions is that the same land is auctioned twice; first the land is broken into tracts and each tract is auctioned individually. Then, the tracts are reassembled and auctioned as a whole parcel. After the two auctions are completed, the seller chooses the one that generates a higher revenue. The main purpose of this paper is to provide an explanation of why such an auction design is employed to sell farmland. We also show that this feature of land auctions leads to interesting interaction among the bidding strategies of the players in each of the two auction stages.