A reappraisal of the forecasting performance of corn and soybean new crop futures

Forecasting performance of December corn and November soybean futures contracts during the previous spring was evaluated using the commonly specified price-level and percent-change models. These models invoke different assumptions regarding stationarity. Using Stein's analytical framework, results for the price-level model suggest avoidable social loss existed in the soybean market since 1973, because November futures provided biased forecasts. Regression R²s for both corn and soybeans declined substantially between 1952–1972 and 1973–1997, suggesting total social loss increased. By contrast, results from the percent-change model suggest only unavoidable social loss existed in the corn and soybean markets, because the futures provided unbiased forecasts. R² increased for corn but declined for soybeans, suggesting unavoidable social loss declined for corn, but increased for soybeans. The important, conflicting nature of the results from the two models underscores the importance of examining alternative model specifications when evaluating price forecasting performance. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 604–618, 1999     

PUBLIC DECISION GUIDES FOR WATER RESOURCE DEVELOPMENT IN WESTERN CANADA1

The concern of the paper is public river basin development in Western Canada. It attempts to set forth public decision guides and objectives in development of water resource policy. Operational formulations that are useful in public natural resource development and management are considered. Cet article traîte du développement des bassins fluviaux publiques au Canada Ouest. Les auteurs tâchenl de formuler les indications ?opinion publique el les objectifs qui peuvent servir de guides pour arriver à une politique pour le développement des ressources ?eau. Les formulations opérationnelles qui sont utiles dans le développemenl et le ménagement des ressources nalurelles publiques sont aussi considérées.     

Health care purchasing alliances--a Michigan multiemployer trust funds' approach

A group of multiemployer trust funds in Michigan has formed a coalition that eventually will offer its members an integrated managed health care program. As the first step toward this goal, the coalition recently implemented a managed pharmaceutical program.     

A comparison of alternative methods of updating input-output coefficients

In recent years there has been a growing number of input-output models of economies ranging in scale from the rural to the national. While offering invaluable insights into the interaction of sectors within an economy, the input-output model suffers from the fact that its coefficient values are altered over time due particularly to technological change. Two of the prominent techniques designed to update these technical coefficients, the RAS and linear programming methods, are compared herein with regard to changes in U.S. national coefficients between 1963 and 1967. Suggestions for improvements to the latter method are outlined.