The Return of the Reciprocitarians — US Trade Policy Today

‘We are always willing to be trade partners, but never trade patsies’— President Ronald Reagan, State of the Union Message, Washington, 1987     

CBO’s Outlook for the Economy in February 2014

These remarks summarize the economic forecast and budget outlook that the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) published in February 2014. The discussion has not been updated to reflect subsequent economic and budget data or subsequent projections by CBO. Under an assumption that current laws governing federal taxes and spending remain in place, CBO projects that real GDP will expand by roughly 3 percent between the fourth quarter of 2013 and the fourth quarter of 2014—the largest rise in nearly a decade. Similar annual growth rates are projected through 2017. Nevertheless, CBO estimates that the economy will continue to have considerable slack for the next few years. To a large degree, the slow recovery of the labor market since the official end of the recession in 2009 reflects slow growth in the demand for goods and services. To a smaller degree, that slow recovery is the result of structural factors that stem from the recession and the subsequent weak growth of output but that are not directly related to the economy’s current cyclical weakness. The unemployment rate is expected to remain above 6.0 percent until late 2016. Moreover, labor force participation is projected to move only slowly back toward what it would be without the cyclical weakness in the economy. Beyond 2017, CBO expects that economic growth will be well below the average seen over the past several decades, primarily because of slower growth in the labor force arising from the aging of the population. Inflation, as measured by the change in the price index for personal consumption expenditures, is expected to remain at or below 2.0 percent throughout the next decade. Interest rates on Treasury securities are projected to increase in the next few years as the economy strengthens. The federal budget deficit has fallen sharply during the past few years, and it is on a path to decline further this year and next year. However, if current laws remain unchanged, the deficit will increase again after a few years because revenues are expected to grow at roughly the same pace as GDP whereas spending is expected to grow more rapidly. Federal debt held by the public is expected to equal 74 percent of GDP at the end of this year and close to 80 percent a decade from now.     

A Law and Finance Analysis of Hedge Funds

This paper empirically analyzes the impact of hedge fund regulation on fund structure and performance. The data indicate restrictions on the location of key service providers and permissible distributions via wrappers are associated with lower fund alphas, lower average monthly returns, and higher fixed fees. Furthermore, restrictions on the location of key service providers are associated with lower manipulation-proof performance measures, while wrapper distributions are associated with lower performance fees. As well, the data show standard deviations of monthly returns are lower among jurisdictions with restrictions on the location of key service providers and higher minimum capitalization requirements.     

Intrapreneurial intentions versus entrepreneurial intentions: distinct constructs with different antecedents

We posit that entrepreneurship and intrapreneurship are distinct entrepreneurial behaviors that differ in terms of their salient outcomes for the individual. Since individuals are likely to differ in their attitudes to these salient outcomes, and in their entrepreneurial self-efficacy, we hypothesize that a different strength of intention for entrepreneurship versus intrapreneurship will be due to individual differences in self-efficacy and in their attitudes to the outcomes from entrepreneurial, as compared to intrapreneurial, behavior. We find that while self-efficacy is significantly related to both entrepreneurial and intrapreneurial intentions, attitudes to income, ownership, and autonomy relate only to entrepreneurial intentions, while attitude to risk relates only to intrapreneurial intentions.     

Inflation Forecast Targeting: An Alternative Approach to Estimating the Inflation‐Output Variability Tradeoff

We suggest a new way of computing the inflation‐output variability tradeoff under inflation forecast targeting. Our approach is based on dynamic, stochastic simulations of the average inflation rate over a two‐year horizon using the moving average representation of a vector autoregressive (VAR) model. Using real‐time data over two samples, we estimate the inflation‐output variability tradeoff for the United States and show that it has shifted favorably over time. We analyze the policy interventions required to achieve target inflation in each sample and compare these interventions over time.     

Making tax and social security decisions: lean and deskilling in the UK Civil Service

Lean working has had a significant impact on the work skills of civil servants. This study examines the impact of lean specifically focusing on ‘decision‐makers’, those civil servants engaged in deciding tax and social security claims. Using qualitative data from trade union members and stewards in two major government departments, this study found significant evidence of deskilling often in the face of dealing with potentially complex legal and factual issues. Using Mashaw's framework of administrative justice, the article argues that management's use of lean was evidence of an accelerated shift to a managerial model of administering tax and benefits where the administrative processes of decision‐making become paramount at the expense of the quality of the decisions made.     

Bankruptcy Decision Making

When a firm encounters financial distress, there is a significantpossibility that, at some point, the firm itself should be shutdown and its assets put to better use. But Chapter 11 and indeedall market-mimicking reorganization regimes other than a speedyauction entrust the shutdown decision to a bankruptcy judgewho lacks information and expertise, as well as the abilityto control the timing of her decisions. Understanding the costsof entrusting the shutdown decision to a bankruptcy judge iscentral to assessing any law of corporate reorganizations. Thisarticle models the shutdown decision as the exercise of a realoption. The model suggests that the shutdown decision may loomso large in the early parts of the bankruptcy case that it erasesany significant difference between Chapter 11 and many alternativemarket-mimicking regimes. All these regimes take more time thanmandatory auctions and thus increase the cost of taking theshutdown decision away from a market actor. Moreover, the realoption itself gives parties an incentive to withhold information.Only a system of mandatory auctions both limits the amount oftime the shutdown option resides with an inexpert decision makerand forces insiders to give that decision maker sufficient informationto value the option while it is in her hands.     

International air passenger services: The determinants of bata negotiation outcomes

International air passenger services, like services in general, have played an increasingly important role in international commerce. No such services would take place, however, without bilateral air transport agreements (BATAs). This study examines the determinants of the outcomes of the BATA negotiation process. It focuses on United States flags hare, a key outcome. Using regression analysis, this study finds that the importance of the other country's airline to that country's government has a significant negative effect on U.S. flagshare. The importance of tourism to the economy of the other country has a significant positive effect on U.S. flagshare, as does the size of the market between the United States and the other country. In contrast, this study finds no support for the relevance of U.S. citizen share or U.S. military basing privileges in the other country.     

Public–Private Partnerships and Supply Chain Security: C‐TPAT as an Indicator of Relational Security

Following the attacks of September 11th, public and private entities recognized a need to protect the global supply chain from terrorist disruption. In response to this need, the U.S. Government partnered with industry to create the Customs‐Trade Partnership Against Terrorism (C‐TPAT) program. This research investigates the public–private partnership (PPP) relational aspects of C‐TPAT. C‐TPAT encourages firms to voluntarily improve their security competence and that of their supply chain partners. We introduce the concept of relational security in the context of PPPs. We define relational security as all activities that establish, cultivate, and maintain successful security exchanges between parties. We establish C‐TPAT as one indicator of relational security by demonstrating its ability to establish, cultivate, and maintain successful security exchanges between parties. Results indicate certified firms outperform noncertified firms in security performance, firm performance, and resilience.