Futures studies and management development

Futures studies can make significant contributions to management by improving background information, stimulating new ways of thinking and providing decision inputs. Professor Dror shows how good futures studies, replacing the criterion of subjective certainty by that of objective uncertainty, pinpoint changes in management needed for long-term planning.     

Top management roles in R&D projects

The work described in the paper is aimed at a better understanding of decision processes in ‘directed’ R&D. Specifically it focusses on the questions: What aspects of innovation does top management influence significantly?, and What are the effects of this influence? The kinds of influences looked at include technological, financial. marketing, timeliness and personnel factors as well as company characteristics. The overall hypothesis was that top management would be interested not only in ultimate objectives but also in intermediate objectives of shorter timespan. The research material consisted of answers to a 29-item questionnaire given by 107 management-level respondents in 13 sites. The questionnaires related to data on 154 projects including the degree of success data achieved. The results were analyzed to bring out main-effect factors on success and intercorrelations between factors. Overall the results supported the initial hypothesis that top management is concerned with shorter-term R&D matters as well as with the effects of R&D on long-term strategy. The influence appears to be more marked during early some stages the of factors projects than later. Interestingly of correlated with economic success are not correlated with top management support, although support is correlated directly with succes. On the whole, top management intervention appears to be operational rather than primarily strategic. The authors interpret observations as meaning that top management intervenes at irreversible decision points and on matters that affect other functions of the company but keeps out of some important issues that are beyond their control.     

Alternative domestic political futures: Research needs and research design

The mission of this paper is to stimulate work on alternative futures of domestic politics. Such work should provide an essential and critical component of the kind of studies that presume to provide some prevision of the future, and should thereby serve as an aid for future-shaping policy-making. It includes two main parts. The first part discusses the present neglect of alternative domestic political futures (ADPF) and explains why ADPF should become a main concern of futures studies. The second part presents an initial design for the study of ADPF.     

Rating the credit rating agencies

We offer herein several policy tools that can assist the new Office of Credit Ratings within the Securities and Exchange Commission in assessing the quality of past credit ratings and thus measuring the inclusive competency of credit rating agencies. We propose to weigh the degrees of accuracy, consistency and total synchronization between a tested sample of past ratings and a benchmark array of flawless ratings. We also discuss various techniques to handle major discrepancies between these two arrays of credit ratings. We further explain and demonstrate the importance of different sample sizes. In addition, we present a simple approach to estimate the probability of convergence between the two matched sets of ratings under specified governing thresholds. Lastly, we illustrate the bulk of the theory with a concise empirical investigation.     

Forecasting for rulers

The trend towards presidential-style rule in contemporary democratic governments continues. Although rulers' positions are increasing in power and importance, the infrastructure and policy-making resources upon which they rely to govern have remained remarkably inadequate. The author argues that the contribution made by forecasting has been scant and often predicated upon the wrong aims. Forecasters and forecasting need a new approach.     

Money with partially directed search

Partially directed search replaces the total randomness of monetary search models. Agents choose whether to stay in their production location or visit other locations. Each visiting agent randomly chooses one shop among many in each location. As in random matching models, a commodity or fiat object can endogenously become money, but the details are richer and conform better with evidence: any commodity can be money; the “best” commodity is the most likely money; fiat money can totally crowd out commodity money in an asymmetric environment; going shopping is more likely than door-to-door sales. The model nests Walrasian equilibria.     

The Corporate Acquisition Policy of Financially Distressed Firms

The paper examines a unique motive for corporate acquisitions among distressed firms: the desire to enhance creditworthiness by both the acquirer and the acquired firms. I develop a theoretical model of the creditworthiness conditions necessary for corporate acquisitions and identify the optimal policy in searching for an acquirer. I distinguish between strategic and nonstrategic acquisitions and find the necessary conditions and most favorable policy for a strategic acquisition to evolve. I demonstrate the importance of the cost of finding an acquirer, the impact of sharing bargaining leverage, and the economic significance of credit quality for the success of the accord.