中国经济增长的需求分析及其政策含义

在需求分析框架下,本文综合运用OLS、可变参数模型状态空间表示等方法,实证分析了1978-2010年需求扩张及结构变动对中国经济增长的影响。研究结果表明:1978年以来,提高消费需求比提高投资需求和净出口需求更有利于中国经济持续稳定增长;1997年以来,消费率快速下降,消费需求的产出弹性快速下降,致使中国经济增长面临较强的消费需求约束。现实条件下,政府应通过大幅度提高消费需求、优化投资需求及净出口需求等政策措施来扩大内需进而调整需求结构以促进中国经济持续稳定增长。     

中国股市新股发行内在价值模型的选择

基于中国资本市场的特殊制度背景,研究中国股市泡沫的着眼点应当是新股发行全过程,即新股从定价、发行至上市的完整过程。IPO泡沫是股市泡沫的重要组成部分,但是研究IPO泡沫的核心问题是IPO估值方法的选择。本文通过剩余收益法和股权自由现金流量法对IPO样本公司进行估值,从理论和估值结果两个方面分别进行分析比较,发现剩余收益法比自由现金流量折现法更适合于中国股市IPO估值。     

Distribution Channel Relational Cohesion Exchange Model: A Small‐to‐Medium Enterprise Manufacturer's Perspective

This study investigated the influence of dealers' expert, referent, and legitimate sources of power on small‐to‐medium enterprise manufacturers' relationship commitment in distribution channel systems. A theoretical model drawing on the relational cohesion theory and the extant marketing literature is developed and tested empirically using a sample data set of 452 from Zimbabwe. In this model, expert, referent, and legitimate powers are the predictors, whereas trust, cooperation, and relationship satisfaction are the mediators, and relationship commitment is the outcome variable. Analysis reveals that these three powers positively influence the mediators and outcome variable in a significant way, except for legitimate power to cooperation relationship. Managerial implications and future studies are suggested.     

Learning Approaches and Outcome‐Based Teaching and Learning: A Case Study in Hong Kong,China

Outcome‐based education is a pedagogical process which focuses on the achievement of certain specified results. Outcome‐based teaching and learning (OBTL), therefore, is concerned with curriculum design and ensuring that the contents, delivery, activities, and assessments are all aligned to help facilitate students to attain specific intended learning outcomes. This study explores whether and how outcome‐based teaching impacts on the learning approaches of one cohort of undergraduate business students at a university in Hong Kong, China to undergo outcome‐based teaching, newly introduced as part of a university‐wide policy to adopt OBTL. The learning approaches of these business students were measured using John Biggs's (1987 Biggs, J. 1987. Student approaches to learning and studying, Melbourne: Australian Council for Educational Research.  [Google Scholar]) Study Process Questionnaire (SPQ) to determine whether these students tended to favor surface learning approaches, deep learning approaches, or achieving learning approaches upon initial entry into the university. Changes in learning approaches were tracked, after a semester's exposure to OBTL, through survey and focus group interview methods. Findings indicated a significant amount of transference between learning approaches deployed by these students, demonstrating a high level of adaptability.     

A theory of the competitive saving motive

Motivated by recent empirical work, this paper formalizes a theory of competitive savings — an arms race in household savings for mating competition that is made more fierce by an increase in the male-to-female ratio in the pre-marital cohort. Relative to the empirical work, the theory can clarify a number of important questions: What determines the strength of the savings response by males (or households with a son)? Can women (or households with a daughter) dis-save? What are the conditions under which aggregate savings would go up in response to a higher sex ratio? This theory can potentially help to understand the savings patterns in China, India, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong, and other economies that have experienced a dramatic increase in the pre-marital sex ratio.     

推进“四化同步”必须以市场化为基础

文章认为,在我国要实现工业化、城镇化、信息化与农业现代化的同步发展,必须以市场化的推进为基础,并就如何建立相关的市场化体制、机制及相应的制度提出建议。而且,为了更好地在推进市场化中实现"四化"同步发展的目标,还需要变革观念,破除思想障碍,打破一些似是而非的看法。     

我国上证综指收益概率分布的统计特性分析

本文根据我国上海证券交易所综合指数在过去7年中的高频数据序列,分析在6种时间标度(1分钟至60分钟)下收益的概率分布,发现具有明显的尖峰和胖尾特征;收益概率分布具有对称性,利维稳定分布能很好地描绘中间部分的变化规律,利维指数为1.26;其渐近行为具有幂律特性,特征指数为2.86(1分钟序列),超出了利维稳定分布的范围。结果表明,上证综指收益概率分布具有明显的非线性分形特性,这对分析我国股票市场变化的动力学规律、风险管理和衍生产品定价具有指导意义。     

科学发展观指导下的鄂尔多斯现代化进程

现代化进程的推动离不开科学发展观的指导。落后的经济发展是制约鄂尔多斯与时俱进的瓶颈。一方面,鄂尔多斯深入贯彻落实科学发展观,不断创新和完善符合科学发展要求和地区实际的发展思路,努力立足科学发展;另一方面,鄂尔多斯把着力自主创新、完善体制机制、促进社会和谐的总要求贯穿于经济社会发展的全过程,并落实到经济社会发展的各个环节。通过解放思想、改革开放,鄂尔多斯最终实现了发展经济强市、推广集约型经济、创建区域性现代化中心城市、转型绿化城市、加快自主增长和构建和谐社会6大目标。深入贯彻落实科学发展观为鄂尔多斯开创社会发展新局面、推进全面现代化作出了重大贡献。     

复杂产品系统采购的付款机制研究:以飞机为例

在论述飞机购置费付款方式演变的基础上,探讨性地提出了里程碑付款方式,它是大型飞机购置费未来的必然发展趋势。然后,就里程碑的内涵与外延,从购置费价格的构成、付款节点的设立、价格激励项的内涵与外延等角度,进行了理论性研究。     

我国应放弃汇率名义锚

尽管我国宣布将货币供应量作为货币政策调控目标,但是,货币供应量近年来却高速增长,造成我国物价水平不断攀升。本文通过对近年我国货币政策实际操作考察发现,我国货币政策名义锚并非货币供应量而是汇率,其他货币政策工具均受制于此。汇率名义锚使我国货币政策走入困境,央行面临着物价稳定和经济紧缩的重大取舍。历史经验告诉我们,在巨大贸易不平衡下,汇率名义锚具有不可持续性。参照国际成功经验,本文建议我国应逐步放弃汇率名义锚,渐进迈向物价名义锚,实现货币政策独立和经济良性发展。